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Posted by RaceBets at 9:04 AM
Aidan O’Brien’s classy looking Fame and Glory scored an impressive win in the Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown and you had to have lightning reflexes to catch the 12/1 that it was cut to after the race because within a few minutes he was as low as 8/1. Fortunately, I had my fast fingers poised and got a piece of the 12/1 with Mr Patrick Power as he really impressed me going down to the start and he oozed quality as you would expect from a Montjeu colt out of a Shirley Heights mare.
The victory was all the more impressive as the colt was conceding 5lb to the field for a penalty picked up for scoring in a GP1 in France last season. He will now, more than likely bid to repeat the High Chaparral/Galileo route and take in the Derrinstown en-route to Epsom.
John Oxx had stated that Mourayan would improve for the run and well he might but he looked a tricky character and possibly unlikely to be as suited to Epsom as the winner who looks a real galloper. The Jim Bolger runner-up Fergus McIver has improved a lot since finishing far behind the winner in his maiden from last year but is bred by Sadler’s Wells out of a Danehill mare so has the breeding to be a Derby winner, if not the trendier name ;-)
As to whether the 8/1 still represents value…well I think it probably does as most of O’Brien’s have been in need of the run this season so clearly he is a bit special to win so comfortably first time out and at this stage that is the most impressive Derby trial I have seen for some time so take a piece of the 8/1.
However, John Oxx may yet have a live contender for Epsom in the Galileo half-brother, Sea The Stars who won the Beresford Stakes last year. There he defeated Mourayan, an O’Brien hotpot Masterofthehorse, Recharge (who defeated Dewhurst winner Intense Focus earlier in the month) and today’s Ballysax 4th Hail Caesar by about the same distance as today’s winner. That puts him almost alongside Fame And Glory so have 1pt each-way on him at 16/1 with SportingBet as he is as short as 9/1 with Ladbrokes.
FAME AND GLORY – 5pts win @ 9.2 Epsom Derby (Betfair)
SEA THE STARS – 1pt each-way @ 16/1 Epsom Derby (SportingBet)
Well yesterday was a bit of a washout with the headline selections and
Postie's tip beaten but the latter I thought looked in need of the race
and it was pretty much a schooling session. He is in the Derby and will
appreciate a step up in trip, could win a 10f conditions race or be
plotted up for a middle distance handicap somewhere in the summer.
There were plenty of winners top and 2nd-top rated at decent prices
Top-rated Lahaleeb won the Fred Darling at a decent price of 6/1 in the
end, Mighty Moon won for the flying Fahey in the 4:50 at Newbury at 13/2
while 2nd top-rated Invasion scored at 20/1 in the 5:20 at the same course.
At Nottingham there were wins for top-rated Raccoon, 8/1 Cornish Castle
3/1 and at Doncaster we had a frustrating 4 top-rated place with
Redesignation being the only top-rated winner on the card.
At Ayr we didn't get much luck but 2nd top-rated Gone To Lunch ran 2nd
in the big one at 12/1 while top-rated The Polomoche won at 15/2.
At Thirsk the decision to oppose Knot In Wood and back Hitchens paid off
but apart from top-rated Cornus scoring at 3/1 in the last race we drew
a blank ratings-wise.
Here are Sunday's ratings and I am going for a few outsiders tomorrow,
apart from that I would just advise to concentrate on the top2 on the
ratings in each race or sticking with the first two races mentioned below.
*4:10 Lingfield ART MAN @ 4.8 (Betfair)*
Gary Moore has a 20% strike-rate the last few weeks and Ryan Moore looks
an eye-catching booking. The race was not run to suit last time and the
step up to 10f will be ideal. Should take the beating and one of my best
bets today at around 4.8 on Betfair as it has dropped down to an
*3:30 Stratford KEW JUMPER win @ 4.5 (Bet365) - DOWN'S FOLLY e/w @ 12/1
Kew Jumper scored well last time and I can see it starting shorter than
Bet365's 7/2 quote with Tony McCoy booked for the ride and ground
conditions ideal. His defeat of Pepsyrock was upheld by that one's win
on Saturday at Ayr in a competitive handicap chase so the form looks
solid, he jumped really well, was well backed and is still on a fair
mark. Should take all the beating and my 'next best'
Down's Folly has yet to win in 12 chase attempts but has placed 9 of
those times. Recently, he has struggled upped in trip to 3 miles but the
drop back will be in his favour and he can once again reward each-way
support with the outside chance of a shock win should something happen
to the favourite.
Now for a few more speculative ones...
*5:00 Stratford BEDIZEN e/w @ 27*
14/1 in the Racing Post betting forecast would seem generous for this 2
time course and distance winner. Had broken a blood vessel two outings
ago but ran well last time when 2nd and maybe worth taking a chance on
at possibly decent odds given his obvious liking for the track. Apart
from that 'blip', has finished placed in all previous 7 starts and there
are 4 of them to aim for. Watch for early non-runners though and if so
put a small win bet on at best prices with the place bet on Betfair who
will still pay out on the 4 places even if there are non-runners.
**2:20 Wincanton FORTIFICATION e/w @ 34*
Ex-Irish and was woeful up until last time (beaten total of 250 lengths
in 5 races) Was fitted with first-time cheekpieces and ran by far his
best race to date last time before fading over 3 miles. The blinkers,
drop back in trip and better ground are likely to have more of an impact
so with that in mind could be worth a small each-way to reach the frame
as will probably be a huge price.
*3:50 Wincanton ENROBLIM TROP @ 16.5 *
Is worth giving another chance to after jumping poorly early and being
pulled up last time. Had earlier put in an excellent effort when just
touched off my Russian Trigger in the Kent National and the price of 16+
looks an overreaction to that run last time. Best to back it win and
place on Betfair as there is a likely non-runner in Freeline Future here.
|LEOPARDSTOWN||3-55||Hail Caesar (IRE)||423||2|
|LINGFIELD (A.W)||2-10||Prince Charlemagne (IRE)||316||1||3|
|LINGFIELD (A.W)||2-10||Zalkani (IRE)||310||2|
|LINGFIELD (A.W)||2-10||Irish Ballad||306||3|
|LINGFIELD (A.W)||3-40||Latin Tinge (USA)||337||1||2|
|LINGFIELD (A.W)||3-40||Luckier (IRE)||335||2|
|LINGFIELD (A.W)||3-40||Something Perfect (USA)||329||3|
|LINGFIELD (A.W)||4-10||Art Man||385||1||13|
|LINGFIELD (A.W)||4-10||Folio (IRE)||372||2|
|LINGFIELD (A.W)||4-10||Polish Power (GER)||369||3|
|LINGFIELD (A.W)||4-40||Sevenna (FR)||397||2|
|LINGFIELD (A.W)||4-40||Wine 'n Dine||395||3|
|LINGFIELD (A.W)||5-10||Rowe Park||415||1||15|
|LINGFIELD (A.W)||5-10||Stoneacre Lad (IRE)||395||2|
|LINGFIELD (A.W)||5-10||Masta Plasta (IRE)||322||3|
|STRATFORD||2-30||The Nightingale (FR)||538||1||4|
|STRATFORD||2-30||Which Pocket (IRE)||455||3|
|STRATFORD||3-00||What A Friend||573||1||35|
|STRATFORD||3-00||Hold Em (IRE)||534||2|
|STRATFORD||3-00||Cheating Chance (IRE)||518||3|
|STRATFORD||3-30||Kew Jumper (IRE)||490||1||5|
|STRATFORD||3-30||Down's Folly (IRE)||485||2|
|STRATFORD||4-00||Gallileo Figaro (USA)||446||3|
|STRATFORD||5-00||Indian Blood (IRE)||460||1||0|
|WINCANTON||2-20||Sir Harry Cool||346||2|
|WINCANTON||3-20||Amble Forge (IRE)||471||1||2|
|WINCANTON||3-50||Enroblim Trop (IRE)||444||1||7|
|WINCANTON||4-20||Vintage Fabric (USA)||426||1||3|
|WINCANTON||4-20||Tizzy Blue (IRE)||420||3|
Posted by RaceBets at 3:42 AM
*1:30 EBIAYN - win @ 4.8 Betfair*
I rated the maiden at 1:30 for one reason. The 'Postie' has put me on to
one here. He has a very good line in with the Michael Jarvis yard, to
the point where he can become a bit blinkered I reckon so we will have
to get those taken off and try him with the cheekpieces instead ;-)
Anyway, probably best if I just quote his messenger post to me yesterday
/"Listen m8.last month i saw one of Micky's on racecourse side tearing
it up over a mile and the beast in question is EBAIYN.He is a really
good looking sort ,strong <snip sexist remark> and went well with
alezayeb(?) and some other inpronouncable.bit of give wouldnt go amiss
and think his breeding backs that up.he probably wants another few
furlongs idealy but he will go well and if there is any more rain get on
it.Problem is jonny g has one in there that was pulled out of newmarket
the other day cos of the ground and word is its a bit special so you
might want to cover it with that."/
Yes, he has a unique style all of his own and does struggle a bit with
the Arab names sometimes as you can tell, doesn't help being a dyslexic
cockney ;-) I have had to put more than one spelling of numerous horses
into the RP site on more than one occasion. You should hear him on the
phone though, it's like listening to Mike Reid (RIP).
I had to call him afterwards to see how 'strong' he was on it and he
basically said it would run a big race especially after all the rain but
he is worried about the Gosden runner Reportage as that has been doing
some good 'stuff' by all accounts although he hadn't personally seen it.
I asked him about the other 3 that I had shortlisted on what I have
dubbed the 'Sheikh' system, notably Almutawaazin, December and Dreamcoat
and he didn't seem to know too much about those ones but did say there
had been a bit of buzz about the Meehan runner but that is now a
non-runner so he is even more confident.
I went on to ask him if he wanted to wait to put up one he was more sure
about it and his quote was "Nah, stick it up mate and keep doing a
So there you have it, he is a good,honest bloke and a sound judge but
the race looks trappy to me. It will be interesting to see if there is
any money about for any of Ebiayn or Reportage and if they are all
fighting it out at the business end but I have had a bet at 4/1 after
the withdrawal of the favourite and you can get 4.8 on Betfair but I
don't think it will last long.
He said he would donate my stake back on the site if it lost...I tried
to wind him up and told him I was having 2k on it and his response was
"Why don't you have a proper bet ?"...I think he ended up winding me up ;-)
Posted by RaceBets at 9:14 AM