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Fame & Glory cut to 8/1 for Derby

Aidan O’Brien’s classy looking Fame and Glory scored an impressive win in the Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown and you had to have lightning reflexes to catch the 12/1 that it was cut to after the race because within a few minutes he was as low as 8/1. Fortunately, I had my fast fingers poised and got a piece of the 12/1 with Mr Patrick Power as he really impressed me going down to the start and he oozed quality as you would expect from a Montjeu colt out of a Shirley Heights mare.

The victory was all the more impressive as the colt was conceding 5lb to the field for a penalty picked up for scoring in a GP1 in France last season. He will now, more than likely bid to repeat the High Chaparral/Galileo route and take in the Derrinstown en-route to Epsom.

John Oxx had stated that Mourayan would improve for the run and well he might but he looked a tricky character and possibly unlikely to be as suited to Epsom as the winner who looks a real galloper. The Jim Bolger runner-up Fergus McIver has improved a lot since finishing far behind the winner in his maiden from last year but is bred by Sadler’s Wells out of a Danehill mare so has the breeding to be a Derby winner, if not the trendier name ;-)

As to whether the 8/1 still represents value…well I think it probably does as most of O’Brien’s have been in need of the run this season so clearly he is a bit special to win so comfortably first time out and at this stage that is the most impressive Derby trial I have seen for some time so take a piece of the 8/1.

However, John Oxx may yet have a live contender for Epsom in the Galileo half-brother, Sea The Stars  who won the Beresford Stakes last year. There he defeated Mourayan, an O’Brien hotpot Masterofthehorse, Recharge (who defeated Dewhurst winner Intense Focus earlier in the month) and today’s Ballysax 4th Hail Caesar by about the same distance as today’s winner. That puts him almost alongside Fame And Glory so have 1pt each-way on him at 16/1 with SportingBet as he is as short as 9/1 with Ladbrokes.

 FAME AND GLORY – 5pts win @ 9.2 Epsom Derby (Betfair)
    SEA THE STARS – 1pt each-way @ 16/1 Epsom Derby (SportingBet)

Sun Ratings/bets - Art Man to draw clear of rivals

Well yesterday was a bit of a washout with the headline selections and
Postie's tip beaten but the latter I thought looked in need of the race
and it was pretty much a schooling session. He is in the Derby and will
appreciate a step up in trip, could win a 10f conditions race or be
plotted up for a middle distance handicap somewhere in the summer.

There were plenty of winners top and 2nd-top rated at decent prices
elsewhere.

Top-rated Lahaleeb won the Fred Darling at a decent price of 6/1 in the
end, Mighty Moon won for the flying Fahey in the 4:50 at Newbury at 13/2
while 2nd top-rated Invasion scored at 20/1 in the 5:20 at the same course.

At Nottingham there were wins for top-rated Raccoon, 8/1 Cornish Castle
3/1 and at Doncaster we had a frustrating 4 top-rated place with
Redesignation being the only top-rated winner on the card.

At Ayr we didn't get much luck but 2nd top-rated Gone To Lunch ran 2nd
in the big one at 12/1 while top-rated The Polomoche won at 15/2.

At Thirsk the decision to oppose Knot In Wood and back Hitchens paid off
but apart from top-rated Cornus scoring at 3/1 in the last race we drew
a blank ratings-wise.

Here are Sunday's ratings and I am going for a few outsiders tomorrow,
apart from that I would just advise to concentrate on the top2 on the
ratings in each race or sticking with the first two races mentioned below.

*4:10 Lingfield ART MAN @ 4.8 (Betfair)*
Gary Moore has a 20% strike-rate the last few weeks and Ryan Moore looks
an eye-catching booking. The race was not run to suit last time and the
step up to 10f will be ideal. Should take the beating and one of my best
bets today at around 4.8 on Betfair as it has dropped down to an
attractive mark.

*3:30 Stratford KEW JUMPER win @ 4.5 (Bet365) - DOWN'S FOLLY e/w @ 12/1
(Paddy Power)*
Kew Jumper scored well last time and I can see it starting shorter than
Bet365's 7/2 quote with Tony McCoy booked for the ride and ground
conditions ideal. His defeat of Pepsyrock was upheld by that one's win
on Saturday at Ayr in a competitive handicap chase so the form looks
solid, he jumped really well, was well backed and is still on a fair
mark. Should take all the beating and my 'next best'
Down's Folly has yet to win in 12 chase attempts but has placed 9 of
those times. Recently, he has struggled upped in trip to 3 miles but the
drop back will be in his favour and he can once again reward each-way
support with the outside chance of a shock win should something happen
to the favourite.

Now for a few more speculative ones...

*5:00 Stratford BEDIZEN e/w @ 27*
14/1 in the Racing Post betting forecast would seem generous for this 2
time course and distance winner. Had broken a blood vessel two outings
ago but ran well last time when 2nd and maybe worth taking a chance on
at possibly decent odds given his obvious liking for the track. Apart
from that 'blip', has finished placed in all previous 7 starts and there
are 4 of them to aim for. Watch for early non-runners though and if so
put a small win bet on at best prices with the place bet on Betfair who
will still pay out on the 4 places even if there are non-runners.
*
**2:20 Wincanton FORTIFICATION e/w @ 34*
Ex-Irish and was woeful up until last time (beaten total of 250 lengths
in 5 races) Was fitted with first-time cheekpieces and ran by far his
best race to date last time before fading over 3 miles. The blinkers,
drop back in trip and better ground are likely to have more of an impact
so with that in mind could be worth a small each-way to reach the frame
as will probably be a huge price.

*3:50 Wincanton ENROBLIM TROP @ 16.5 *
Is worth giving another chance to after jumping poorly early and being
pulled up last time. Had earlier put in an excellent effort when just
touched off my Russian Trigger in the Kent National and the price of 16+
looks an overreaction to that run last time. Best to back it win and
place on Betfair as there is a likely non-runner in Freeline Future here.

Course	Time	Horse	RAT	RATR	Sup
LEOPARDSTOWN	3-55	Mourayan (IRE)	437	1	3
LEOPARDSTOWN	3-55	Hail Caesar (IRE)	423	2
LEOPARDSTOWN	3-55	Vitruvian Man	421	3
LINGFIELD (A.W)	2-10	Prince Charlemagne (IRE)	316	1	3
LINGFIELD (A.W)	2-10	Zalkani (IRE)	310	2
LINGFIELD (A.W)	2-10	Irish Ballad	306	3
LINGFIELD (A.W)	3-40	Latin Tinge (USA)	337	1	2
LINGFIELD (A.W)	3-40	Luckier (IRE)	335	2
LINGFIELD (A.W)	3-40	Something Perfect (USA)	329	3
LINGFIELD (A.W)	4-10	Art Man	385	1	13
LINGFIELD (A.W)	4-10	Folio (IRE)	372	2
LINGFIELD (A.W)	4-10	Polish Power (GER)	369	3
LINGFIELD (A.W)	4-40	Jagger	400	1	3
LINGFIELD (A.W)	4-40	Sevenna (FR)	397	2
LINGFIELD (A.W)	4-40	Wine 'n Dine	395	3
LINGFIELD (A.W)	5-10	Rowe Park	415	1	15
LINGFIELD (A.W)	5-10	Stoneacre Lad (IRE)	395	2
LINGFIELD (A.W)	5-10	Masta Plasta (IRE)	322	3
STRATFORD	2-30	The Nightingale (FR)	538	1	4
STRATFORD	2-30	Midnight Sail	519	2
STRATFORD	2-30	Which Pocket (IRE)	455	3
STRATFORD	3-00	What A Friend	573	1	35
STRATFORD	3-00	Hold Em (IRE)	534	2
STRATFORD	3-00	Cheating Chance (IRE)	518	3
STRATFORD	3-30	Kew Jumper (IRE)	490	1	5
STRATFORD	3-30	Down's Folly (IRE)	485	2
STRATFORD	3-30	Kelrev (FR)	483	3
STRATFORD	4-00	Charmaine Wood	451	1	1
STRATFORD	4-00	Topflight Wildbird	450	2
STRATFORD	4-00	Gallileo Figaro (USA)	446	3
STRATFORD	5-00	Indian Blood (IRE)	460	1	0
STRATFORD	5-00	Bedizen	460	2
STRATFORD	5-00	I'm Delilah	459	3
WINCANTON	2-20	Fortification (USA)	365	1	19
WINCANTON	2-20	Sir Harry Cool	346	2
WINCANTON	2-20	Nosler (IRE)	313	3
WINCANTON	3-20	Amble Forge (IRE)	471	1	2
WINCANTON	3-20	Ouste (FR)	469	2
WINCANTON	3-20	Launde (IRE)	466	3
WINCANTON	3-50	Enroblim Trop (IRE)	444	1	7
WINCANTON	3-50	Wizards Dust	434	2
WINCANTON	3-50	Freeline Fury	432	3
WINCANTON	4-20	Vintage Fabric (USA)	426	1	3
WINCANTON	4-20	Marigolds Way	423	2
WINCANTON	4-20	Tizzy Blue (IRE)	420	3

Gone To Lunch @ 16/1 replaces Tricky Trickster

With Tricky Trickster a non-runner on account of the ground I'll add GONE TO LUNCH @ 16/1 with Tony McCoy as the bet alongside DEAR VILLEZ.

Postie's Gallop Tip - Newbury 1:30 EBIAYN

*1:30 EBIAYN - win @ 4.8 Betfair*
I rated the maiden at 1:30 for one reason. The 'Postie' has put me on to
one here. He has a very good line in with the Michael Jarvis yard, to
the point where he can become a bit blinkered I reckon so we will have
to get those taken off and try him with the cheekpieces instead ;-)
Anyway, probably best if I just quote his messenger post to me yesterday
afternoon.

/"Listen m8.last month i saw one of Micky's on racecourse side tearing
it up over a mile and the beast in question is EBAIYN.He is a really
good looking sort ,strong <snip sexist remark> and went well with
alezayeb(?) and some other inpronouncable.bit of give wouldnt go amiss
and think his breeding backs that up.he probably wants another few
furlongs idealy but he will go well and if there is any more rain get on
it.Problem is jonny g has one in there that was pulled out of newmarket
the other day cos of the ground and word is its a bit special so you
might want to cover it with that."/

Yes, he has a unique style all of his own and does struggle a bit with
the Arab names sometimes as you can tell, doesn't help being a dyslexic
cockney ;-) I have had to put more than one spelling of numerous horses
into the RP site on more than one occasion. You should hear him on the
phone though, it's like listening to Mike Reid (RIP).

I had to call him afterwards to see how 'strong' he was on it and he
basically said it would run a big race especially after all the rain but
he is worried about the Gosden runner Reportage as that has been doing
some good 'stuff' by all accounts although he hadn't personally seen it.

I asked him about the other 3 that I had shortlisted on what I have
dubbed the 'Sheikh' system, notably Almutawaazin, December and Dreamcoat
and he didn't seem to know too much about those ones but did say there
had been a bit of buzz about the Meehan runner but that is now a
non-runner so he is even more confident.

I went on to ask him if he wanted to wait to put up one he was more sure
about it and his quote was "Nah, stick it up mate and keep doing a
raindance ;-)".

So there you have it, he is a good,honest bloke and a sound judge but
the race looks trappy to me. It will be interesting to see if there is
any money about for any of Ebiayn or Reportage and if they are all
fighting it out at the business end but I have had a bet at 4/1 after
the withdrawal of the favourite and you can get 4.8 on Betfair but I
don't think it will last long.

He said he would donate my stake back on the site if it lost...I tried
to wind him up and told him I was having 2k on it and his response was
"Why don't you have a proper bet ?"...I think he ended up winding me up ;-)

Sat Bets - Scottish National looks Tricky(s)

Scottish National

I'll kick off with the big race of the day up at Ayr, the Scottish National. The first on my list is easy,TRICKY TRICKSTER is a close 2nd on the ratings, represents the in-form Nigel Twiston-Davies (who knows a thing or too about winning Nationals), the horse has stamina in abundance, has never finished out of the first two over fences and he is following the same route as Hot Weld and Old Benny. No problem, lump it each-way at 9/1 with Bet365 best-odds guaranteed. The only downside is that no 6 year old has won the Scottish National since Earth Summit in '94, trained by errr, yep you guessed it ;-)

I personally like the look of Merigo who won the Eider last time on soft but has won round here on decent ground. If I didn't have ratings he would be my 2nd best but he is a bit skinny in the market for a 2nd speculative punt. However, I will probably have a small cover bet on him for at least half the stakes on the other two.

I have to have faith in my ratings though so I will go with top-rated, champion-trainer trained DEAR VILLEZ for the 2nd bet each-waay at 22/1, again with Bet365. OK, he has top-weight but he did win the Munster National in October and has not been disgraced when 4th in the Hennessy to Madison Du Berlais, 5th in the Peter Marsh and last time when 4th in the NH Chase. He is entitled to be carrying the weight he is and with watering due to take place overnight, the ground may be ok for him.

Middleton Dene is an outsider worth including in forecast/tricast bets as I expect a big run from the stable who are starting to do really well at the mo.

---------------------

Shanakil skips Greenham

The breaking news for Saturday is that Lord Shanakil is out of the Greenham. I'm not too worried, in fact I had a bit more on at 50 on Betfair when the news broke. It is a minor issue and Karl Burke is just being ultra-cautious as he knows a long horse-box trip to Newbury, especially as the ground is likely to be getting softer from further rain there, is the last thing he needs for a prep. I never like the Greenham as a trial and it has a horrendous record so it's probably a blessing in disguise and he heads straight to Newmarket still with a very strong chance. Don't panic !

"He doesn't run," said trainer Karl Burke on Friday. "We have had a slight hiccup in that he has had a slightly elevated temperature this morning and we just daren't take any chances with him by travelling down to Newbury.

"He will now go straight to the Guineas. He will have a quiet weekend. All being well his temperature will be fine tomorrow morning. He will have light exercise over the weekend and then resume on Monday.

"It's amazing. We haven't had a hiccup all winter with him and the day before you want to give him a prep run, he gets something, but that's horses for you."

As requested, I now list the top-3 in the ratings for each race and summarise the best bets below.

---------------------

Best Bets

Newb 2:05 ROYAL AND REGAL win @ 11/4 (Bet365, Paddy Power)
Newb 2:35 ZAAHID e/w @ 10 & HUZZAH e/w @ 13 & MAWAATHEEQ e/w @ 19 (Bet365)
Ayr     2:50 SNAP TIE e/w @ 9 (Paddy Power)
Ayr     3:05 TRICKY TRICKSTER e/w @ 10 & DEAR VILLEZ e/w @ 23 (Bet365)
Newb 3:10 LAHALEEB e/w @ 9/2 (Paddy Power)
Ayr     5:05 FRESH AIR AND FUN win @ 4

Rest of Ayr card...

Ayr

1:45 Giorgio Quercos @ 3.05
Saticon is clear of Giorgio Quercus and should be one of the safest bets on the card but I'm not convince King's runners are quite in top form at the moment and the price is not good enough to justify a bet given the way he ran last time at Aintree. Giorgio is probably the better value given the trainer has a 28% strike-rate and with Geraghty riding really well but it's one of a few horrible little races.

2:20 Tot O'Whiskey @ 13
I like I'msingingtheblues and he is rated further clear of the 2nd than Saticon is but if he is odds-on he is getting laid, not for much as I really like the horse and think he is clearly the one to beat but I'll put a lay up at 10% shorter than his odds at the off and cross my fingers. Of course if he is odds-against then he will be getting bet...does that make any sense ? ;-)
Deep Purple is clear 2nd best and ran well at Aintree but my preference for a very small bet (pennies) would be for Tot O'Whiskey. Not the most reliable of types but the first-time blinkers may sharpen his ideas up a bit and the cheekpieces may also help Turkish Supreme as well. I wouldn't want to take a very short price on the favourite in this with so many  ?marks.

2:50 SNAP TIE e/w @ 9 (Paddy Power)
I really, really like Medermit but he did let us down a touch at Cheltenham and needs to improve a bit to beat top-rated (albeit by only 1pt) Snap Tie. The Hobbs runner will love the better ground he will encounter here and his defeat of last year's Champion Hurdle winner Katchit and subsequent close 2nd to Harchibald in the Xmas Hurdle (alongside Punjabi when he fell) rates by far the best form here and he rates massive, massive each-way value at 9 with Paddy Power.
4:00 The Polomoche @ 7.8
Which one of the 3 top-rated, out of orm runners do we side with in this horrible handicap hurdle, easy the one with McCoy on board. The Polomoche has been poor the last 2 outings but McCoy may be able to get something out of him.

4:35 Lord Henry @ 10.5
Probably the best value in the race but I can't motivate myself to analyse it. It's Nicholls, it's top-rated and likely double-figures so it should at least place.

5:05 FRESH AIR AND FUN @ 4
Top-rated Valley Ride is respected but is maybe rated higher than he should be after the capitulation of his main rival last time. Fresh Air and Fun though has Mccoy and also has the form, having beaten Zacharova. I can see it starting favourite and being punted. He jumped and travelled well at Sandown and should score here in some style, definitely one to follow on that run and best to get on at the 3/1 before the Jim McGrath fortunes are lumped on.

---------------------

Newbury

A nice looking card at Newbury, the 'Postie' (see section below) has put me on to one here in the opener but he has asked me not to post it until he can shop around for the best price in the morning so I'll probably put the name of it up around 10:30 or something.

2:05 ROYAL AND REGAL win @ 11/4 (Bet365, Paddy Power)
In the absence of main danger Spanish Moon, Royal and Regal can win this race for the 2nd year running with the ground ideal. He went on last season to run a close 2nd in the Yorkshire Cup when the ground was too fast for his rounded action (so I've been told). He was just edged out on the line by Geordieland that day and then placed behind Honolulu in the Doncaster Cup. He has been gelded over the winter, which may bring further improvement, and he could be an Ascot Gold Cup horse this year, ground permitting. Has been going well on the gallops by all accounts, is fit to go in first time and should take the beating here. Centennial looks the chief threat but Tastahil has had a run and represents the flaming Barry Hills yard.

2:35 ZAAHID e/w @ 10 & HUZZAH e/w @ 13 & MAWAATHEEQ e/w @ 19 (Bet365)
I used to love to tear races like this apart from a trends and form perspective. My ratings pretty much do that for me now and leaves me free to concentrate on the principals, namely the top-3 or 5 on the ratings. However, if memory serves we want an unexposed 4yo, less than about 12/1 but not the favourite, for an in-form stable.

Flipando has not won on turf for a long time now but did score in the Lincoln Trial and not disgraced in that race last time. However, not won with 'soft' in the going description.

Zaahid was 3rd in this last year en-route to taking the Victoria Cup, was runner-up to Expresso Star in the Lincoln and his stable, well we know the score by now. 9/1 is a fairly decent each-way price, will handle the going but there may be one better handicapped in the field.
I do think that when it's soft a low draw 'may' be preferable here.

Mawatheeq is well drawn and it looks a tough ask from that mark. However, he is entered in the Lockinge so he could be very decent and with a low draw he is very interesting, the ground is a worry but there won't be many less exposed runners in the race. I will have to have a cover on this one just in case but he will be the smallest bet of the 3.

4th on the ratings is Benandonner who bounced back from a poor Lincoln run last time to run 2nd at Kempton and is respected with Fahey as equally flammable as Barry Hills but be surprised if he is up to winning a race this competitive.

Spring Mile winner Manassas looks like being a springer, perhaps Pricewise but I prefer Huzzah as my main bet. Huzzah won at this meeting last year and then Chester so is clearly a spring horse. Michael is on board for father Barry and high draw gives good coverage on both sides for the most in-form trainer in the country. Not beaten far behind Expresso Star in the Lincoln, will have put him spot on for this, he can improve for that and probably is better handicapped than his stablemate.

The only other one I like is Jaser. Chapple-Hyam runners often do well on soft and this one was progressive last term with cut and ran ok last time behind Expresson Start. Ryan Moore is an eye-catching booking but he could meet trouble as he needs to be brought late on the scene.

3:10 LAHALEEB e/w @ 5.5 (Paddy Power)
A trappy looking Fred Darling but since Lahaleeb won her nursery over c&d she improved throughout the season placing behind Fantasia, Rainbow View before winning the Rockfel at Newmarket. Easily the best form, just a question if she is sharp enough, has trained on and whether there is anything with more scope in the field, hence the each-way. The Hannon runners are the obvious dangers along with the Jim Bolger favourite Maoineach. Yorksters Girl is interesting at a big price, 4th on the ratings and 25/1 but I'll just stick with the Channon filly.

3:45 Cityscape win @ 7/2 
As much as I would love to see top-rated Shaweel boost the form of both Mastercraftsman and the Dewhurst form I am not convinced about Godolphin at this stage. Sure, this one is probably one of their leading players so could be different gravy but whether they are ready enough to win at the first time of asking or not ? Finjaan will struggle to stay 7f in soft ground so Cityscape by Selkirk out of a Distant View mare should have his optimum conditions and is the selection but it's not a race for big stakes due to the uncertainty surrounding the Godolphin runner.

Think I will leave it there, all the ratings are below...don't forget to read further down the page, got some info coming later this morning. Others that should win include Wheelavit 3:50 @ Bangor, Native Coral 4:25 @ Bangor while over at Thirsk I like Hitchens in the 3:35 and Fantasy Believer in the 4:45 race.

Course	Time	Horse	RAT	RATR	Sup
AYR	1-45	Saticon	529	1	+38
AYR	1-45	Giorgio Quercus (FR)	491	2
AYR	1-45	Marc Aurele (IRE)	285	3
AYR	2-20	I'msingingtheblues (IRE)	588	1	+34
AYR	2-20	Deep Purple	554	2
AYR	2-20	Tot O'Whiskey	508	3
AYR	2-50	Snap Tie (IRE)	593	1	+1
AYR	2-50	Medermit (FR)	592	2
AYR	2-50	Sentry Duty (FR)	584	3
AYR	3-25	Dear Villez (FR)	569	1	+2
AYR	3-25	Tricky Trickster (IRE)	567	2
AYR	3-25	Gone To Lunch (IRE)	566	3
AYR	4-00	The Polomoche (IRE)	547	1	+13
AYR	4-00	Middleton Dene (IRE)	534	2
AYR	4-00	Working Title (IRE)	526	3
AYR	4-35	Lord Henry (IRE)	571	1	+2
AYR	4-35	Andreas (FR)	569	2
AYR	4-35	Medicinal (IRE)	567	3
AYR	5-05	Valley Ride (IRE)	507	1	+9
AYR	5-05	Fresh Air And Fun (IRE)	498	2
AYR	5-05	Silver By Nature	498	3
BANGOR-ON-DEE	2-10	Minella Theatre (IRE)	470	1	+17
BANGOR-ON-DEE	2-10	Shenanigan	453	2
BANGOR-ON-DEE	2-10	Double Hit	451	3
BANGOR-ON-DEE	2-40	Mars Rock (FR)	457	1	+6
BANGOR-ON-DEE	2-40	Sashenka	451	2
BANGOR-ON-DEE	2-40	Double Obsession	451	2
BANGOR-ON-DEE	3-15	Double The Trouble	472	1	+6
BANGOR-ON-DEE	3-15	Just Smudge	466	2
BANGOR-ON-DEE	3-15	Or D'Oudairies (FR)	461	3
BANGOR-ON-DEE	3-50	Wheelavit (IRE)	417	1	+19
BANGOR-ON-DEE	3-50	Nayodabayo (IRE)	398	2
BANGOR-ON-DEE	3-50	Speedy Directa (GER)	397	3
BANGOR-ON-DEE	4-25	Native Coral (IRE)	522	1	+3
BANGOR-ON-DEE	4-25	Go For One (IRE)	519	2
BANGOR-ON-DEE	4-25	Victor Daly (IRE)	505	3
DONCASTER	4-40	Secret Night	339	1	+1
DONCASTER	4-40	Fiefdom (IRE)	338	2
DONCASTER	4-40	El Dececy (USA)	325	3
DONCASTER	5-40	Swiss Diva	381	1	+1
DONCASTER	5-40	Polish Pride	380	2
DONCASTER	5-40	Lucky Numbers (IRE)	377	3
DONCASTER	6-15	Unnefer (FR)	457	1	+6
DONCASTER	6-15	King Of Dixie (USA)	451	2
DONCASTER	6-15	Atlantic Sport (USA)	447	3
DONCASTER	6-50	Redesignation (IRE)	419	1	+7
DONCASTER	6-50	Mull Of Dubai	412	2
DONCASTER	6-50	Princess Taylor	410	3
DONCASTER	7-25	Encircled	381	1	+5
DONCASTER	7-25	Rio Guru (IRE)	376	2
DONCASTER	7-25	Confidentiality (IRE)	375	3
NEWBURY	1-30	Hi Fling	198	1	+0
NEWBURY	1-30	Border Patrol	198	2
NEWBURY	1-30	Ebiayn (FR)	190	3
NEWBURY	2-05	Royal And Regal (IRE)	464	1	+0
NEWBURY	2-05	Centennial (IRE)	464	2
NEWBURY	2-05	Scintillo	452	3
NEWBURY	2-35	Flipando (IRE)	432	1	+8
NEWBURY	2-35	Zaahid (IRE)	424	2
NEWBURY	2-35	Mawatheeq (USA)	423	3
NEWBURY	3-10	Lahaleeb (IRE)	447	1	+26
NEWBURY	3-10	Infamous Angel	421	2
NEWBURY	3-10	Baileys Cacao (IRE)	414	3
NEWBURY	3-45	Shaweel	472	1	+6
NEWBURY	3-45	Finjaan	466	2
NEWBURY	3-45	Cityscape	444	3
NEWBURY	4-15	Bennelong	240	1	+10
NEWBURY	4-15	Arabian Flame (IRE)	230	2
NEWBURY	4-15	Mehendi (IRE)	212	3
NEWBURY	4-50	Mighty Moon	380	1	+10
NEWBURY	4-50	Winged D'Argent (IRE)	370	2
NEWBURY	4-50	Cape Greko	367	3
NEWBURY	5-20	Moves Goodenough	396	1	+12
NEWBURY	5-20	Invasian (IRE)	384	2
NEWBURY	5-20	Trans Siberian	381	3
NOTTINGHAM	5-30	Keep Dancing (IRE)	321	1	+6
NOTTINGHAM	5-30	Piste	315	2
NOTTINGHAM	5-30	Today's The Day	313	3
NOTTINGHAM	6-00	Raccoon (IRE)	340	1	+6
NOTTINGHAM	6-00	Figaro Flyer (IRE)	334	2
NOTTINGHAM	6-00	Guto	332	3
NOTTINGHAM	6-35	Cornish Castle (USA)	310	1	+1
NOTTINGHAM	6-35	Incendo	309	2
NOTTINGHAM	6-35	Ay Tay Tate (IRE)	309	3
NOTTINGHAM	7-40	Nicky Nutjob (GER)	294	1	+1
NOTTINGHAM	7-40	Chalk Hill Blue	293	2
NOTTINGHAM	7-40	Graycliffe (IRE)	283	3
THIRSK	2-30	Atlantic Story (USA)	420	1	+9
THIRSK	2-30	Flawed Genius	411	2
THIRSK	2-30	Minority Report	410	3
THIRSK	3-00	Monfils Monfils (USA)	349	1	+12
THIRSK	3-00	Sporting Gesture	337	2
THIRSK	3-00	Herrera (IRE)	336	3
THIRSK	3-35	Knot In Wood (IRE)	444	1	+10
THIRSK	3-35	Wi Dud	434	2
THIRSK	3-35	Hitchens (IRE)	433	3
THIRSK	4-10	Noble Storm (USA)	381	1	+10
THIRSK	4-10	Caranbola	371	2
THIRSK	4-10	Mullglen	370	3
THIRSK	4-45	Fantasy Believer	367	1	+8
THIRSK	4-45	Cornus	359	2
THIRSK	4-45	Woodsley House (IRE)	345	3

---------------------

Friday Review and 'The Postie'

Friday Review

So close with Gasat last night who tied up as he appeared to go a bit lame before the finish and just couldn't hold on but at least I hope some of you got the 10/1 early doors. Wonder if it was the racebets-inspired gamble that sent him off 7/2 ;-) There were a couple of good places yesterday and at least managed to get a win with JEBEL TARA but some of the other main bets didn't run as well as expected. Last night at Cheltenham showed how much more sense it is to lay the odds-on shots in running. I laid Bensalem at 1.4 in running for 50 quid which cost me 20 quid but then laid Chapoturgeon at the same odds in running which got matched for 50 quid so ended up 30 quid in profit on the 2 races. Well it was a bit more as I backed Gauvain in the latter as well but you get the drift, don't back the shorties, lay them at 10% shorter than their starting price at the off in-running.

Trainers having multiple winners Friday, Barry Hills, Tom Dascombe, Twiston-Davies & Nicky Richards with doubles. Fahey and Swinburn had 3 apiece yesterday(!) Cecil's ARE generally needing a run at the moment (unless they have a tongue tie and are his outsider of two ;-), seriously though when it comes to maidens it's tempting to get involved but that just goes to show how dangerous they can be. However, he did fit my top-trainer/Sheik combo system I sometimes pay attention to, as did Hills' Makaamen in the earlier handicap.

Introducing 'The Postie'

I was also a bit gutted as my mate from Chippenham (just outside Newmarket) pinged me 10mins before the race on MSN to tell me to get on Chief Editor in the 2:40 as he had seen him on the Limkilns(?) gallops burning the place up recently and going clear of the pack (excuse my terminology I know little about gallops and can't remember his exact phrase) !

Chief Editor had been 3rd on my ratings and I almost put him up due to the form of the stable, had I known he was on fire in training I may have re-considered but these things are easy to say after the event. He reckoned he was due to go the Abernant but was routed here instead and said he was going to be a Group sprinter this year. I was peeved I couldn't let you guys know in time but the good news is that he has agreed to give me the nod the day before if one he has spotted is due to run...more of that later.
 
I met him in the East End many moons ago, he was a postman and used to frequent my local bookies after his rounds just off Bethnal Green Road and we hit it off when he tried to teach me about how examining a horses confirmation and action was a bit like 'eyeing up a buuurd'.

If I remember rightly the quote, 'The best bits have to stand out and make you go back for a 2nd look...watch out for a funny walker and sweating between the legs is a definite no-no'.
That image has stuck in my mind until this day and is about the only bit of paddock inspection that I am capable of when I go racing.

He won a rollover Jackpot at Royal Ascot one year for a massive amount, got fed up of London,  told the then Royal Mail to stick their job and moved to Chippenham to setup and run a tree surgery business.

He is like a horse trainspotter now, just hangs about on the gallops/course around Newmarket with a pair of binoculars glued to his head but he said he would give me a shout when he hears/sees anything as he does know a few people with his 'outgoing' personality, so it's good to have him on board as I am sure he will give us an added edge and I can't wait to hear his opinion on the Guineas. I refer to him as 'Postie' as it really winds him up ;-) I will see if I can get him to put together a piece on gallops/paddock watching in the near future.

All I need now is a contact at Coolmore...anyone have any Irish contacts ?

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Racebets Friday Ratings & Kempton 7:10 GASAT

 I forgot to post the ratings this morning so hear they are below. The one at Kempton I really like is Gasat who absolutely hosed up in a Class 6 seller last time. He steps up in class today, if you can call it that, to a Class 6 handicap. The trainer has a 20%+ strike-rate recently, Gasat has a great draw in stall 4 but the eye-catcher is the booking of ex-champion jockey Seb Sanders. I can see him blasting out the gate and holding on at least for a place here but I think he will win. Have an each-way bet on GASAT @ 10's (Paddy Power) in the 7:10 at Kempton.

Course	Time	Horse	RAT	RATR	Sup
AYR	2-20	Percutant (FR)	494	1	+16
AYR	2-20	Description (IRE)	478	2
AYR	2-50	Raysrock (IRE)	457	1	+9
AYR	2-50	Bougoure (IRE)	448	2
AYR	3-25	Leac An Scail (IRE)	475	1	+4
AYR	3-25	Distiller (IRE)	471	2
AYR	4-00	Mister McGoldrick	566	1	+13
AYR	4-00	Medicinal (IRE)	553	2
AYR	4-35	Magical Legend	504	1	+20
AYR	4-35	More Likely	484	2
CHELTENHAM	5-35	Bensalem (IRE)	547	1	+47
CHELTENHAM	5-35	King's Forest (IRE)	500	2
CHELTENHAM	6-10	Chapoturgeon (FR)	583	1	+17
CHELTENHAM	6-10	Gauvain (GER)	566	2
CHELTENHAM	6-45	Blazing Bailey	588	1	+11
CHELTENHAM	6-45	Hills Of Aran	577	2
CHELTENHAM	7-20	D'Argent (IRE)	509	1	+5
CHELTENHAM	7-20	Stolen Moments (FR)	504	2
CHELTENHAM	7-50	Overstrand (IRE)	507	1	+1
CHELTENHAM	7-50	Leamington Lad (IRE)	506	2
KEMPTON (A.W)	7-10	Watson's Bay	335	1	+3
KEMPTON (A.W)	7-10	Gasat (IRE)	332	2
KEMPTON (A.W)	7-40	Haarth Sovereign (IRE)	376	1	+1
KEMPTON (A.W)	7-40	Bassinet (USA)	375	2
KEMPTON (A.W)	8-15	Glencalvie (IRE)	349	1	+2
KEMPTON (A.W)	8-15	Magic Rush	347	2
KEMPTON (A.W)	8-50	Mutamared (USA)	420	1	+4
KEMPTON (A.W)	8-50	Little Edward	416	2
KEMPTON (A.W)	9-20	Song Of Praise	327	1	+2
KEMPTON (A.W)	9-20	True Decision	325	2
NEWBURY	2-10	Cloudy Start	394	1	+2
NEWBURY	2-10	Felday	392	2
NEWBURY	2-40	Fullandby (IRE)	455	1	+3
NEWBURY	2-40	Oldjoesaid	452	2
NEWBURY	3-15	Four Winds	401	1	+7
NEWBURY	3-15	Akhenaten	394	2
SEDGEFIELD	5-25	Caravel (IRE)	459	1	+48
SEDGEFIELD	5-25	Treeko (IRE)	411	2
SEDGEFIELD	5-55	Role On (IRE)	491	1	+25
SEDGEFIELD	5-55	Striking Article (IRE)	466	2
SEDGEFIELD	6-25	Lucky Nellerie (FR)	411	1	+7
SEDGEFIELD	6-25	Polar Gale (IRE)	404	2
SEDGEFIELD	7-30	Ormus	431	1	+8
SEDGEFIELD	7-30	Moonhawk	423	2
SEDGEFIELD	8-00	Black Mogul	433	1	+8
SEDGEFIELD	8-00	Panthera Leo (IRE)	425	2
THIRSK	2-00	Star Rover (IRE)	241	1	+29
THIRSK	2-00	Chicita Banana	212	2
THIRSK	2-30	Green Agenda	359	1	+24
THIRSK	2-30	Belated Silver (IRE)	335	2
THIRSK	3-05	Jebel Tara	345	1	+6
THIRSK	3-05	Summer Dancer (IRE)	339	2
THIRSK	3-40	White Deer (USA)	378	1	+7
THIRSK	3-40	Compton's Eleven	371	2

Friday Bets/Ratings - Time to collect on Father

Thursday Review

A great day yesterday with the headline bet Tax Free winning at 8/1 and available at 11's on Betfair at the off. Also some other excellent wins including Tazeez etc and some excellent places as well including Hora 16/1, Firebet 20/1 and Kayf Aramis 20/1 who went so close at Cheltenham.

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Glass Harmonium was a touch disappointing in the Craven but I should have realised he was being given a prep for the Dante en-route to the Derby. It was little more than a schooling session for him. He will improve for that, the trip was probably insufficient and he was not punished at all. It was a satisfactory work-out, let's leave it at that and pay note to the Racing Post comments -

"Glass Harmonium, on the other hand, is from a stoutish family and probably wants further. As he´s by Verglas he possibly wants softer too, but the mere fact that Sir Michael Stoute ran him here suggests he is well regarded, so considerable improvement is on the cards."

The winner was entitled to win the Craven but I can't have him for the Guineas and the price cut to 3/1 is an over-reaction. To me it only enhanced the chances of our 33/1 outsider Lord Shanakil who reappears in the Greenham on Saturday. As they said in the Racing Post comments -

 "While there is little doubt Delegator is a classy colt, and one with a turn of foot that could be even more potent if unleashed later, the form needs keeping in perspective and as it stands it would not match the level required to win the Guineas"

I also think that in recent years some trial winners are overhyped and it's forgotten that O'Brien produces the goods on the day time and time again. I would still favour Mastercraftsman over him but may change my mind after 'The Lord' hopefully demolishes his Greenham rivals at Newbury on Saturday because to me is he is close to a GP1 winning juvenile as you can get without actually having the official title ;-)

Friday's Action

Friday sees the start of the 2-day Ayr Scottish National meeting but the card looks a shocker. I'm going to concentrate on Newbury. Odds listed are best Betfair odds when I typed the previews up for each race, unless stated otherwise.

Shortlisted runners, and another Derby longshot to add to the portfolio ;-)

Newbury 2:10 CLOUDY START win @ 5.1 (FELDAY e/w @ 17.5)
Newbury 2:40 OLDJOESAID e/w @ 5 (Bet365)  (FULLANDBY e/w @ 13 (Bet365))
Newbury 3:15 FATHER TIME win @ 5 (Paddy Power)
Thirsk 3:05 JEBEL TARA e/w @ 9.8
Cheltenham 5:35 KING'S FOREST @ 5.1
Ayr 4:00 MISTER MCGOLDRICK e/w @ 13

Derby - FATHER TIME e/w @ 33/1 and at 44 on Betfair

Newbury

I am ignoring the maidens, apart from with a view to the future and perhaps if I spot a move for any of the top-3 in the market for the likes of a Gosden, Hills, Stoute or Hannon runners.

2:10 CLOUDY START win @ 5.1 - FELDAY e/w @ 17.5
A lot of Cecil's runners are running placed suggesting they are perhaps needing their first outing of the season but he did win this race in 2007 with Phoenix Tower so top-rated Cloudy Start is very interesting if he can pick up where he left off last season when trotting up at Redcar on his final start after running subsequent Royal Lodge winner Jukebox Jury. If anything looks like being better than a handicapper in the race it could be him so he is well worth an each-way bet as he should go close if his low draw is not a hindrance. Anything floating around 9/2 first thing should be snapped up as I think he will start shorter.

C&D winner Felday has no such worries being drawn in stall 13, he was found out over a mile last time out last season but had earlier ran ok in Donativum's Tatts Million race with yesterday's runner-up Imposing behind him. His win here came with a bit of cut so with optimum conditions he rates a solid looking each way bet if he his fit enough. Hughie Morrison can produce them first time out so should be ok.

3rd on the ratings Saucy Brown ran on strongly to take 5th over an inadequate 5f at Royal Ascot last season and then was far from disgraced over 5/6f GP2 races. He has a lot of weight but it seems Ryan Moore may have chosen him of the stables 3 runners.However,  he has not run as if the step up to 7f is necessarily what he needs and he could be stuck between a rock and a hard place this season but watch the market as any support would be significant.

Stablemate Daddy's Gift would be a bigger threat to the selection. She is a tough sort but has struggled each time at 7f and may prefer a faster surface.

One that could be a danger is Amanda Perret's Truism who is 6lb better off with Noverre To Go on earlier running, is potentially well handicapped and has a very decent looking draw. Watch the market for moves on this one and put it down as a sub or saver.

2:40 OLDJOESAID e/w @ 5 (Bet365) - FULLANDBY e/w @ 13 (Bet365)
It would be an understatement to say Henry Candy has a knack with sprinters but he does and that was re-affirmed with the impressive win of  Dark Mischief this week in a tough looking sprint. It's amazing that Oldjoesaid has been produced to defend his crown he won in this race last season off the exact same mark of 102 but that is largely because he raced over 6f or unsuitable ground. This 5f, first time out, off the same mark, with a bit of cut and the stable in form says to me lump on. If only it was always that easy but he should take the beating and if you can get 5/1 or better make it an each-way lump as I can see him going off shorter but I'm taking the 4/1 with Bet365 best-price guaranteed as I can see him being backed.

Main danger could be Fullandby who narrowly beat him a head under similar conditions to today's at Beverley in September and was a close 3rd in this race last year. He could be worth a small each-way with Ryan Moore a potentially significant booking.

3:15 FATHER TIME win @ 5 (Paddy Power) - FATHER TIME e/w @ 44 (Betfair - Epsom Derby)
Four Winds ran 3rd to Delegator in his maiden and was 'unlucky' in his GP3 next time, getting no sort of a run after being spooked in the paddock and he is well regarded at home but most of these are to be honest. Also, how fit are any of these ? It's guess work unless the paddock and betting provides any clues. He can improve for the step up in trip though and looks the one to beat on form but I'm not convinced the form of the Group 3 or indeed of his maiden behind Delegator was that strong. Also...can 'Frank' Spencer avoid getting short of room in a 7-runner race...not a gimme ;-)

Palvacini ran 2nd in the same Delegator maiden and as a relation to Oath is respected but Dunlop is struggling as a trainer in recent years although if he is going to bounce back anywhere it will be Newbury but like I said, I don't rate the Delegator form and think it's been overcooked.

Father Time, a half brother to Passage Of Time and form aside for one moment is the one to be on. Cecil chose this race for the intro of '99 Derby winner Oath, ok he ran 2nd but he also won this race with Oaks winner Light Shift and won it with Uneffer last year. Safe to say that whatever he runs here, he likes as a potential classic winner so we should also have a small piece of the 33/1 each way and 44 for him on Betfair for the Derby in the hope we can trade out a bit at shorter after the race and have a 'free' bet running. His form from his maiden run is also holding up extremely well and has produced an abundance of winners already, always a good sign.

The main danger I feel though is Noseda's Your Old Pal. This one was seriously impressive in his maiden win last term in a very fast time and could be anything. By Rock of Gibralter out of a Rainbow Quest mare, he is bred to be a star but that win did come on very soft ground so that and Cecil's record in this race as well as the better form of his maiden win just swings it for me for Father Time and it would be great to see the Maestro with a genuine Derby contender again.

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Ayr

2:20 Percutant @ 3.1
Trappy race with Description a danger along with Dancing Dik who could be well handicapped but Percutant has been impressive so far and may not have stopped improving yet.

2:50 Even Flo @ 3.2
Raysrock probably needs more cut whole Bougoure is out of sorts so Even Flo is probably the likeliest winner.

3:25 Leac An Scail @ 6.2
Right, I'm taking on Distiller if he is odds-on but it's not a race to be confident out. Top-rated Leac An Scail could return to form under optimum conditions

4:00 MISTER MCGOLDRICK e/w @ 13
Could this be Mister McGoldrick's swansong at the track where he kickstarted his novice chase career 5 years ago ? I have a feeling he will run a big race and although a little rain wouldn't hurt this is his best chance of winning a chase for some time.

Medicinal for Nicholls is a danger and worth a cover bet. He hit the first really hard last time and was fortunate to get back into but made up ground before tiring to take 4th. Prior to that he had some decent form in the book so is taken to score here.

4:35 Magical Legend @ 7.4
Ran a game race to follow up her previous win but I've not looked at this race in much detail at all.

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Thirsk

At Thirsk I like the look of JEBEL TARA e/w @ 9.8 in first-time blinkers in the 3:05 but in the same race there is a 2nd top-rated runner having his first run after switching stables which I always think is a positive and it's Summer Dancer @ 21 so watch that in the market.

The 4:15 race is the most interesting though. The most significant stat at Thirsk is that 67% of all winner of 10-runner+ 5f handicaps since 2005 have come from the top-third of the draw !  The most biased draw in the country according to the ATR website so I might go for a full-cover forecast/tricast with numbers 7,8,9 & 10 who are strangely drawn in those top-4 stalls. Unfortunately, a computer glitch means I don't have the ratings for this one race which is typical but I would imagine Steelcut @ 3 would be high up on the list as would Bo McGinty.

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Cheltenham

Evening meeting at Cheltenham ? Well, I guess they have to try to get the kids in with some dodgy tribute band or something but from what I have seen it usually gets in 40-somethings going through a midlife crisis...I'll find out next month at Ayr when I attend an 'Abba' night...or rather, leave before they come on, hopefully I will not have my own 'Waterloo'. Enough waffle...

5:35 KING'S FOREST @ 5.1
Continuing with my theme of laying odds-on shots in-running at 20% less than their starting SP, I will be taking on Bensalem who had a tough race at Cheltenham in January and then had a dirty scope which caused him to miss the festival. I don't like taking short-odds about one that has not at least shown he is fully recovered, especially odds-on but i have to say he should take the beating.

However, King's Forest is more than useful and will make a decent chaser next year but he can give the favourite something to think about here. He improved markedly for the step up in trip last time, is lighter raced and less exposed than the favourite and the better value of the two.

6:10 Gauvain @ 3
Again, a low risk lay of Chapoturgeon is the order of the day here. He should win on all known form but he does make the odd howler, fell first time out and last time at Aintree.

I am opposing him with Gauvain who is his only challenger, he jumped superbly last time. It was a muddling race so even more amazing was the fact he broke the track record at Plumpton in the process. Lets hope the good Gauvain turns up and the bad Chapoturgeon does and not the other way round, it's a coin-flip so the 3/1 is obv better than the 1/3 ;-)

6:45 Blazing Bailey @ 4.33
If ever there was a race to leave alone this is it but I'll have a stab. Hills of Aran receives 8lb from most of these and although he goes well when reappearing quickly in general, it was a Grade 2 and Grade 1 run at Aintree and he may have had enough for the season. I can see him teeing this up for a staying type, something like...

Blazing Bailey is going chasing next term and could be a good one there but he has one staying hurdle left in him and this could be it as the race is likely to be teed up for him but a race for pennies really.

7:20 D'Argent @ 9.6
Interesting that between Stolen Moments and D'Argent Choc Thornton has chosen the latter. He has been kept relatively lightly raced this term compared to previous years and with a bit of juice underfoot over a course he won over when hurdling, he rates an e/w bet. My gut tells me Zacharova will bounce back from that poor run last time to win her stablemates race while Tank Top's earlier form with Tricky Trickster in December looks good. Trappy.

7:50 Leamington Lad @ 14.5
I think I would be making my way to the stage before this race, man it's hard. The top-rated Overstrand is hard to win with now but the race should be run to suit but Twiston-Davies is in  form and Leamington Lad won here in December and was not disgraced at the festival so he will do with McCoy on Simply Blue the big danger and possibly worth a small cover bet.

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Sedgefield & Kempton

I have not really looked at either card in detail and if I get a chance will post an update in the afternoon. At Sedgefield in the 6:25 Lucky Nellerie @ 5.4 is interesting at what could be an e/w price as is Ormus @ 10.5 in the 7:30 while trainer-switched Black Mogul @ 9.4 in the 8:00 race should also be watched for money.

As far as Kempton goes, I have one horse that I think will run a very big race at hopefully double-figure odds but I will post it later as I need to check a few things before putting it up. I will aim to post it around 3pm to the blog and via email.

2000 Guineas and Derby Bets - Glass half full or empty for Lord ?

Ante-Post advice (all at Ladbrokes)

2000 Guineas - Glass Harmonium each-way @ 33/1
2000 Guineas - Lord Shanakil each-way @ 33/1
Derby - Glass Harmonium each-way @ 33/1
Each-Way Double - 2000 Guineas Lord Shanakil / Epsom Derby - Glass Harmonium

Derby - Redwood (already on at 44 and 40 each way b4 today's win but still needs to be supplemented)

Ok, it's taking a bit of a risk and at the risk of looking stupid at but I think Glass Harmonium is a potential classic winner. He looks a typical unexposed Stoute runner and he has excellent record in the Craven with similar types, he has to have a chance of running a big race to enhance either his 2000 Guineas or Derby chances.

He won his maiden in some style last season BUT I think it could be significant that Glass Harmonium was one of only 6 colts supplemented for the Derby last week. That hints to me he has been showing something special at home. The fact he runs here and has also been entered in both the 2000 Guineas, Dante and Derby says to me that Stoute is maybe not sure whether he should go the Golan (2000G/Derby) or North Light (Dante/Derby) route and that the Craven is a fact-finding mission.

If he wins the Craven today in style then he could go the 2000 Guineas/Derby route as Golan did BUT if he only places here and doesn't show enough pace against this lot over the mile, he may go the Dante/Derby route. Both the aforementioned classic winners were also bred at the Ballymacoll Stud and I think the fact he runs here first time out is significant.

There is a 3rd scenario today in that that City Style, Alyarf or Pure Poetry does win, Delegator and Glass Harmonium flop and the race is written off as a trial. If that were the case I would expect odds on some others to shorten. If Delegator does win then his odds will shorten more but what about the horse who finished a couple of lengths ahead of it in the Dewhurst, will Lord Shanakil's odds shorten, because if anything he should be shorter now  !

I really, really like Dewhurst runner-up, Karl Burke's Lord Shanakil. He ran 3rd in the  Coventry Stakes, 2nd in the Vintage Stakes, 3rd in the Prix Morny, 5th in the Flying Childers after a slow start and meeting trouble. Most of those races he was either a bit one-paced or running on strongly at the death and he is pretty much a GP1 winner just not in name.

He then improved again to win the GP2 Mill Reef and was then just touched off in the GP1 Dewhurst by a nose. I backed him that day and was absolutely gutted but I couldn't believe his price of 12/1 as I felt this was down to his unfashionable 'classic' trainer Karl Burke and I couldn't get enough on...it was gutting to see him denied and then be ahead half a stride after the line but it filled me with confidence that he was the one for the first colt's classic next month.

I still can't believe he is 33/1 for the 2000 Guineas but I doubt he will be those odds after Saturday's Greenham.

Let's remember that even if Delegator wins today he was still a couple of lengths behind Lord Shanakil in the Dewhurst and the latter showed guts and hinted that he may be more suited to the step up to the mile than any of those behind that day.

In Raceform Update's trainer column Burke states that he has wintered very well indeed and is very forward in his coat. There is also the fact that he handles any ground although probably at his best on good fast ground. 33/1 is a huge price and if he were trained by Gosden or Stoute he would be single figures, I expect him to be after the Greenham on Saturday so now is the time to get involved and I've also had a bet to trade on Betfair.

The double is a speculative punt but a fiver each-way would payout almost 7k if they both won so it's just a bit of fun.

Thu Bets/Ratings - Tax Free Income ?

A great day yesterday and rounded off with a nice 7/1 place and a 6/1 winner with Compton Classic at Kempton last night.

More of the same on Thursday with excellent action at Newmarket and Cheltenham backed up by a couple of interesting races at Ripon and Wolverhampton in the evening. I think it looks a bit trappy though so I will be treading cautiously in my each-way shoes and keeping most of my powder dry for the weekend action.

Once again I will take a look at all the races at Newmarket. I've shortlisted the main 4 so far and cover some other races below..I'll take a look at Ripon and Wolverhampton a bit later if I get the time.

Back these each-way !

Chelt  245 TARATINO
Newm300 TAX FREE
Newm 3:35 GLASS HARMOMIUM
Newm 410  TAZEEZ

=========================

Newmarket

1:50 Best backed of Harbinger (2.66), Errol Flynn (5.8) or Reportage (7) with one eye on Militarist (7) and Best Shot (23)

I like the Wood Ditton but it's been a while since it produced any real decent colts but what it can do is perhaps provide some ideas as to the form of a trainer and later in the season for 3yo and all-aged handicaps. It's no contest on trainer form at the moment, Barry Hills and John Gosden won 5 of the 8 races on Wednesday between them so that is where to start. Just like I stated in the maiden races on Wednesday it's worth paying attention to those in the first 3 in the betting and especially if there is support. Infiraad and Dark Mischief were both in the top-3 in the betting and both were clipped in the betting. So, with that in mind it's probably best to make a note of the likely top-3 in the betting, any other significant trainers entries and their past records in the race. I then make a note of their current Betfair odds and compare them with the odds in the morning. It's a slightly better method than guessing. Stoute has won this twice in the last 10 years but Noseda has 3 wins including Fanjura last year. So I have Harbinger (2.66) and Errol Flynn (5.8) as first choices shortly followed by Reportage (7). Then I have Militarist (7) and Best Shot (23) as the next best. My hunch is that Noseda has won this 3 times and that Errol Flynn at 5.8 looks the better value and I may decide between him and whichever of the Gosden runners are clipped. A lot of Stoute's tend to need their initial running and Harbinger is very short. Hard to tell what Gosden's no.1 is and he may not even know himself but I have had a bit on Reportage simply because of the Dettori factor. Best Shot doesn't appear to be one of Barry Hills better ones but you never can tell and he is red hot right now.  A race to watch or for small stakes probably.

2:25 Best backed of Crown (3.25), Six Wives (3.9) and Mexican Milly (5.5)

Same drill here. The two in-form trainer's runners. Crown (3.25) for Hannon, Mexican Milly (5.5) for Barry Hills and throw in Six Wives (3.9) for Willie Haggas. Haggas has started the season well and I am a big fan of Cheveley Park runners running for top trainers so Six Wives is really interesting. Hannon has also started the season superbly and Crown is very respected given he already has a run under his belt. It's hard to split them but the market suggests it will be between the top-2 so the market moves may be significant.

3:00 TAX FREE - each way @ 7/1

Equiano is joint top-rated but very short at 3's despite the trainers superb start. The first Spanish-trained winner at Royal Ascot, he has given trouble entering the stalls the last few times and doesn't appear to be entirely straightforward.I am almost tempted to put him in as a lay such is the strength of feeling I have that he either won't handle the stalls, the trip, the undulations or all of the above and it's only out of respect for Barry Hills I probably won't. He may be better over the minimum trip rather than 6f as he has a lot of pace and preference is for Dandy Nicholls Tax Free.  Despite being 7 he is fairly lightly raced and could be improving. He ran a good 4th in the Temple Stakes last season before going on to score in a listed race at Naas and then a GP3 at the Curragh from Benbaun. 13/2 looks worth an each-way bet. 3rd-rated Edge Closer is seriously respected from the Hannon yard and he goes well fresh but a bigger danger may come from Knot In Wood following on from his close 3rd in the Cammidge at Doncaster. That is generally a good trial for this race and considering he usually needs his first run of the season, that was a very good effort, especially as he met trouble in running. He may be worth a 2nd small e/w bet.

3:35 GLASS HARMONIUM - each way @ 11/2

The Craven has been pretty much dead as a Guineas trial for quite some time apart from Haafhd but here we are being asked to believe that Delegator is the real deal, has been catching pigeons on the gallops, only needs to turn up etc etc. Well, that may well prove to be the case, he could be a machine but I've seen plenty of these turned over and with Godolphin, Hills, Gosden, Stoute, Hannon and Noseda all having runners in this race, I find it difficult to bring myself to take evens about a Meehan runner (has a habit of being over-bullish at times) who was beaten 5th in the Dewhurst when he blatantly didn't find as much up the hill as the principals AND hung when meeting the rising ground AND is now racing over an extra furlong...cue egg on face ;-)
The form was boosted yesterday by Ouqba so it's probably good enough form. I have my doubts and if he is evens or shorter I will be laying him...probably. He is top-rated but only by .4 of a point from City Style who has arguably the better form with his 4th in the Breeders Cup to Donativum and he has been in sparkling form winning a couple in Dubai without being extended. However, the runner-up let the form down badly yesterday and I'm not convinced that Godolphin's policy of wintering in Dubai worked as well as it did 10 years ago, well in fact I know it doesn't.
Pure Poetry won what looked a poor Easter Stakes while there are stamina doubts about Barry Hills runner Alyarf and he didn't show the same level of form as Haafhd did as a juvenile before he won this race en-route to Guineas success.
My gut feel is telling me that Stoute's Glass Harmonium is the one today. Stoute does well with this type, has supplemented him for the classics in the last week so must clearly have been showing something at home...more of him in the following post.

4:10 TAZEEZ - each way @ 7/1

I think on all known form Twice Over should take this well but he is not a betting proposition at all. I may put up a lay at much shorter odds-on in running though just in case as some of Cecil's have been found wanting at the business end. However, he loves it here, won the Craven first time last season and was contesting Group races, while these generally have to improve. However, one that could improve is John Gosden's Cambridgeshire winner Tazeez. He will not mind the fast ground unlike his stablemate Virtual and yet at twice that ones odds probably represents a bit of each-way and forecast value with the favourite.

4:45 Balaagha (2.78), Resort (3.3), Christina Rossetti ( 7.6) and Spring Adventure (9.2)

Another maiden for the ladies and same rules as before, pick the top-3/4 in the market, listen for clues and watch the market.

5:20 Dialogue- each way @ 20/1+

Imposing is sure to be popular here. His form looks rock good and Stoute tends to prepare a good one for this race but the price looks short enough to me. Dialogue is interesting for Mark Johnston with Frankie Dettori booked. Trounced his field last time at Wolverhampton and if he can translate that to turf he could at least reward each-way support as Dettori will surely keep him prominant but not a race to get too carried away in probably.

Cheltenham

Have to keep this brief as I have some other things to take care of before racing on Thursday.

Encouraging to see a couple of Venetia Williams runners top-rated today. In the 2:10 Aachen @ 5 and Cheltenham winner Kayf Aramis @ 14 in the 3:55 race although Pennek @ 11 is a big danger there. Both are worth each way support.
TARATINO can score for Alan King in the 2:45 @ 8 and that could be worth decent each-way bet.
In the 3:20 race Argento Luna could take the beating @ 4.5 but Hora looks the better each-way price at possibly double-figure odds..

Have not had much chance to look at Ripon or Wolverhampton in depth so there 'may' be a 2nd post tomorrow for the evening meeting. At Ripon, Michael Jarvis does well with his raiders up north so keep an eye on Cheviot in the 2:35.
In the 3:10 at Ripon Halicarassus is rated the highest 'Sup' clear of the 2nd on the ratings on Thursday.
It's hard to know the effect of the draw,  particularly in the last 2 races but high numbers are supposedly favoured over sprints on fast ground, which is a shame as our top-2/3 on the ratings are generally, almost all drawn low. Here is a list of the next best on the ratings drawn high. It will pay to reduce stakes in the first race at 4:55 and then use the lessons learned to back in the last of the day at 5:30.

Highest rated drawn high to back with one from the bottom please Carol ;-):

4:55 Kiwi Bay
5:30 Argentine

Course	Time	Horse	RAT	RATR	Sup
CHELTENHAM	2-10	Aachen	527	1	+18
CHELTENHAM	2-10	Tataniano (FR)	509	2
CHELTENHAM	2-45	Tarotino (FR)	518	1	+11
CHELTENHAM	2-45	Ordre De Bataille (FR)	507	2
CHELTENHAM	3-20	Argento Luna	543	1	+1
CHELTENHAM	3-20	Hora	542	2
CHELTENHAM	3-55	Kayf Aramis	528	1	+1
CHELTENHAM	3-55	Pennek (FR)	527	2
NEWMARKET	3-00	Tax Free (IRE)	468	1
NEWMARKET	3-00	Equiano (FR)	468	1	+22
NEWMARKET	3-35	Delegator	446	1	+0
NEWMARKET	3-35	City Style (USA)	446	2
NEWMARKET	4-10	Twice Over	485	1	+24
NEWMARKET	4-10	Virtual	461	2
NEWMARKET	5-20	Dialogue	386	1	+3
NEWMARKET	5-20	Zaaqya	383	2
RIPON	2-35	Cheviot (USA)	370	1	+13
RIPON	2-35	Lucky Numbers (IRE)	357	2
RIPON	3-10	Halicarnassus (IRE)	448	1	+54
RIPON	3-10	Slam	394	2
RIPON	3-45	Firebet (IRE)	377	1	+2
RIPON	3-45	Cook's Endeavour (USA)	375	2
RIPON	4-55	Vhujon (IRE)	382	1	+3
RIPON	4-55	Ingleby Arch (USA)	379	2
RIPON	5-30	Colorus (IRE)	346	1	+7
RIPON	5-30	Circuit Dancer (IRE)	339	2
WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W)	5-15	Speak The Truth (IRE)	316	1	+1
WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W)	5-15	La Capriosa	315	2
WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W)	6-15	Distinctly Game	380	1	+8
WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W)	6-15	Luscivious	372	2
WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W)	7-15	Common Diva	351	1	+0
WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W)	7-15	High Cross (IRE)	351	2
WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W)	7-45	Justcallmehandsome	368	1	+0
WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W)	7-45	Brouhaha	368	2

Wednesday Review

A great start to a fantastic days racing today, there were decent winners everywhereso hope you showed a profit on the day. I signed up for RacingUK online so I could watch the action. It is a shame that Channel4 have ceased their coverage of the racing this week, a disgrace really but RacingUK proved invaluable and NO adverts to suffer and now I can watch past videos of races without having to suffer the ATR website. Another tool added to the armoury ;-)

Newmarket

150 Native Ruler was a lay for me here at evens and a very small e/w on Horsley Warrior didn't affect the P&L on the race. Gosden's runner won well and gave me confidence for his runners later on the card. Dettori once again showed that he 'owns' at this track. A small lesson here was to be satisfied with the lay and don't try to pick the winners of early-season maidens ;-) It also gave me hope to take on Cecil's runner in the Fielden. He tends to do better with his fillies fresh I feel.

225 Top-rated Monsieur Chevalier was seriously impressive here and looks a sprinter to follow for his in-form yard and I'm just glad he started odds-against ;-)

300 Great result. Popmurphy was a non-runner so Nehaam was my only bet in the race and I could not believe the drift. I could see he was on his toes in the paddock but he went down to the start really well yet still drifted. 8/1 was a great return and I also managed to get 11's on Betfair. Poor show from the Godolphin runner but not entirely unexpected and same for the O'Brien runner as (Guineas aside) he tends to get his runners ready to peak around later in the season.

335 As expected Art Connoiseur ran no sort of race and the trainer was seriously downbeat about his chances this morning on ATR which just goes to show how important it is to pay attention to every piece of news. Unfortunately, Penny's Gift found a couple too good but still nothing was lost with the each-way best. Ouqba gave a serious boost to the Dewhurst form while Courageous did exactly the opposite for the Racing Post Trophy/Crowded House form. Again, this showed that there is nobody better than Barry Hills at producing one after a long absence, especially at Newmarket and it gave me encouragement for Redwood in the Fielden.

410 Very impressive performance from Fantasia who was fully entitled to win this athough I have to admit I put a small lay in at very short odds 'just in case' but nothing serious as I expected her to win.

440 Redwood won very well despite being outpaced and the whispers were spot on with this one. I had a little on for the Derby at 46 on Betfair before the race so am happy with that as he stayed on takingly, clocked comparatively the best time of the day and Barry Hills' 300th winner, a great achievement.

520 Barry Hills with a treble on the day and another winner for the Gainsborough stud colours and Richard Hills. I should have spotted this one but it's been a long day and I tend not to get too involved in maidens but I was peeved I didn't re-assess this race.

555 The market drift on Definightly was significant while the support for the Candy runner Dark Mischief was equally significant. I backed it in the end after listening to Hugh Taylor's analysis on ATR this morning but only to small stakes and it was only a small profit on the race in the end.

Cheltenham

210 Was right to lay Torpichen who was just too short at 8/13 and a bonus with the back of Tasheba being successful to boot.

245 I didn't cover this race on the preview but top-rated Boychuk scored at 17/2 and I managed to snag 11's on Betfair which was an amazing price.

320 Poor run from Dave's Dream here but with the withdrawal of top-rated Polomoche it moved Eleazar up to 2nd on the ratings and that one placed at 18/1. In future I am going to post the top-3 for each race in case of non-runners from the top-2.

355 Private Be had a strange ride but Atouchbetweenacara was seriously impressive, faultless jumping which was not the case when she fell twice from her previous 4 runs but clearly Venetia Williams is still on fire.

430 Bench Warrent was well backed and snuck into a place after being well supported in the morning.

Over at Beverley Fol Hollow did the business in the 3:10 after taking full advantage of the high draw. Labisa actually became a lay in the 455 when it went odds-on so that was a good result as it was beaten into 2nd. New Beginning ran 2nd in the 3:45.

Verizon Golf Championship - Steve Flesch 66/1

This week the US Tour goes to Hilton Head and I was really impressed with the play of Steve Flesch who almost missed the cut at the Masters but snuck under the radar, shooting -9 under over the weekend to move into a tie for 6th overall. He hit almost 75% of fairways at Augusta and his putting average was 1.5 strokes over the 4 days. So he clearly found some form this week and although he has not shown much at this venue since a 7th in 2003 he is worth an each-way bet as he is a confidence player and clearly found some form over the weekend on one of the toughest stages.

An outsider worth a trade is John Mallinger (who?). Well, he shot -23 under in the Bob Hope earlier in the year, and his last 3 starts read 44-27-6 so if he continues this trend he may just win ;-) Seriously though, he is fairly new to the tour the last few years, had a couple of top-10's the last few seasons and could be due a big finish. The main reason though is that he is 80/1 and 100/1 but 125 with Corals which is worth an e/w bet yet he is 240(!) on Betfair and I think that could be worth a trade as he may trade a lot shorter if he continues his decent play of late and contends.

Bart Bryant is a player on my radar with the Byron Nelson on the horizon which Woods pinched from his last year. He is one of the most accurate drivers on tour so probably should have player better than he has round here but he does have a 13th and 21st here 3-4 years ago. He has been out of sorts for a bit but he did shoot -12 under in Puerto Rico last month so there can not be too much wrong with his game. Again he looks too big on Betfair at 230 and well worth a small trade at those odds as well as a small e/w

Golf Double

I'm also going for a few Tour-double multiples this week with William Hill as I am feeling lucky even though I know deep down it's a real long-shot of a bet. I took down a big score a few years back when I had a couple of big-priced winners and another guy in the top-5 in each event ! My strategy is to pick golfers with William Hill that are generally priced up bigger than the majority of bookies but I only concentrate on the top-50 in the market. The reason I use Hills is that they are one of the few you can place this with online without question.
Usually, I just took down a few hundred when a couple of long-shots placed but I did come close to further big payouts a few more times. For example, if Bob Estes and Shiv Kapur win their respective events this week I take down almost 7k but if they both place it's still just over 400 quid but ties obviously reduce the returns.



http://twitpic.com/3c9di

Wed Bets/Ratings - Penny an each-way gift in Newmarket Free Handicap

Wednesday sees the 'proper' start of the flat season with the Newmarket Craven meeting. It's a time of the year to be careful though with lots of rumours about horses catching pigeons on the gallops, plenty of horses not being 100% ready for their debut run, guessing whether horses will maintain their form from the all-weather when switched to turf, or even improve on what they have shown on artificial surfaces.

I still like to keep an eye on maidens at this time of year, even if not from a betting point of view as you can spot decent 3yo's that will make up into classic contenders or potentially decent handicappers later in the year. I've taken a look at every race at Newmarket but only like 3 races for bets out of the 8 taking place there plus a couple at Cheltenham and one tonight at Kempton.

Newm300 NEHAAM - 6 Betfair  (POPMURPHY - 19 Betfair)
Chelt320   DAVES DREAM - 5/1 Bet365
Newm335 PENNY'S GIFT - 6/1 Paddy Power
Chelt430    MY FRIEND SANDY - 14 Betfair- (BENCH WARRANT 16 Betfair)
Newm445  REDWOOD - 3.9 Betfair
Kemp720   SIMPLIFICATION - 8.2 Betfair

=================================================================================

Newm150 Horsley Warrior
Ones to watch here are Henry Cecil's Native Ruler, he has started the season well and this half bruv to Sixties Icon has already caught the eye on the Limekilns and Al Bahathri gallops. One that could go well at a price though is Horsley Warrior who showed a bit of ability in a maiden at Nottingham and who has been entered in the Dante and Derby. He is clearly held in high regard and will be an each-way price for a small bet but generally speaking this is a race to watch closely.

Newm225 Monsier Chevalier
This one put up a very powerful performance last time, Hannon is bang in form and he can make the most of the weight he receives from Hearts Of Fire who was also impressive last time, albeit a little green. Not a race for getting heavily involved in though and if Monsieur goes odds-on could be worth a lay as Soccer cannot be completely ruled out either.

Newm300 NEHAAM - 6 Betfair 
                    POPMURPHY  - 19 Betfair
A fantastic looking race and one for the video/dvd recorder if not necessarily for betting but the thing I feel to do is pick a couple of big prices ones for small stakes. Starting with the favourite, Liberation was a progressive sort for Mark Johnston last term, culminating in a 4th to Donativum and Crowded House in the Timeform Million at Newmarket last backed. Liberation was subsequently purchased by Godolphin and made a decent debut for his new yard, despite being reported to need the run, when 2nd at Nad Al Sheba. Not many ride Newmarket better than Dettori and with this one already having had a prep, the top-rated should go well here with the step up in trip likely to suit but as he is SO short in the betting that he can't be backed.
Monitor Closely was a couple of lengths behind Liberation in the Timeform Million and needs to find something. I also think the step up in trip is less likely to suit him, being by Oasis Dream out of a Pivotal mare. A 'danger' according to the ratings could be in the in-form Richard Hannon's Weald Park but on the balance of his form he doesn't look one of the stables leading lights and he has also something to find with Liberation. A bigger danger to the favourite could come from a less-exposed type who may not show up on the ratings due to the unexposed nature of so many of these runners.
The 5 that look the type on breeding are Rockhampton, Popmurphy, Classically, Sumbe, Nehaam and Pergamon.
Rockhampton is clearly well respected from the O'Brien yard but it's hard to equate the Irish form although if they have the run of form they had last year then all their runners warrant utmost respect. This one has been backed for the Derby but I am sure he won't be the first O'Brien runner that is over the next few months and his price also doesn't look tempting enough. I always find it funny when Spotlight or someone states a runner is respected because O'Brien has him well entered up. It would not surprise me if he entered the stable hack for the Derby !
Derby-entry Popmurphy scored in some style in his maiden at Doncaster and was galloping well past the line. It was very impressive for his first ever run on a racecourse. He can only improve for that and at least he has proven he has trained on. It was a very taking performance to my untrained eye and he should not be underestimated because his connections are less fashionable. He is the first of my each-way bets.
Classically is related to Speciosa and ran really well last time considering that most of Charlton's tend to need an outing. He will improve markedly for that run and his fitness is assured but he holds no big entries.
Sumbe may not look a likely winner but he ran a fair 6th in Delegator's maiden at Newmarket with Crowded House a few lengths behind and no less than 8 subsequent winners have come from that maiden so it was clearly a hot one and Tregoning can prep one first time but this is a big ask as he has not even won a maiden.
John Gosden is bang in form and clearly his Nehaam is well thought of as he was mentioned as a contender for the Royal Lodge and Racing Post trophy last term. He won readily over 7f at Newmarket at the tail-end of the season and the Nayef colt like all the others is well entered and exceptionally well bred.. Given Gosden's record at Newmarket this one has to figure and I think he will be challenging Coolmore and Godolphin through the year as I think he is reaching his prime as a trainer. Having said that, this is a very tough race but we are fortunate in that we should be able to get a decent each-way price about him.
Pergamon is interesting. Gosden showed with Mafaaz when he sticks blinkers on for the first time it's not necessarily because they are ungenuine, sometime he does it just to focus their mind on the job even more. An even more unfortunate method he uses is to 'have their knackers off' and he did this to effect last season with Donativum and Pergamon has had the same cruel cut. So to put it crudely, with blinkers and no balls his mind will be 100% focused on the race and his odds are likely to be generous.
I've spent way too much time on this race but I like to have a feel for the main contenders as it helps focus the analysis afterwards and helps when trying to spot promising runs mid-race. I think it will rest between Godolphin and Coolmore again but won't be surprised to see one or more surprise them both, hopefully one of the two I have mentioned.

Newm335 PENNY'S GIFT - 6/1 Paddy Power
Although Art Connoisseur is top-rated and clocked one of the best speed figures last season when winning the Coventry stakes last season there are doubts. I'm not convinced he is the type to train on, he cracked a cannon-bone last season, he is unproven stepped up to this trip and he has Spencer on board and it's hard to know whether we will see champ or Frank nowadays. With Penny's Gift you are assured of the stable being in cracking form with Ryan Moore in the plate, she is a course & distance winner, receives weight pretty much all round and Hannon has won this race twice in recent years. She is thought to be Guineas class, maybe Irish though not English but she looks the value call here with 6/1 Paddy Power a cracking each-way bet with their best-odds guaranteed offer.

Newm410 Kaabari e/w
Fantasia should take this, she looks well up to 1000 Guineas class but you never know, stranger things have happened. She is reported to be heading for the French Guineas as Cumani believes she will be playing for 2nd behind Rainbow View. She reminds me a bit of the stables Gossamer although unlike her she found one too good in the Fillies Mile.   Summer Fete should give her a race of it but that one may prefer softer ground being by Pivotal. Instead of taking odds-on it may be best to back her for the 1000 Guineas before this race as her odds are likely to contract. Kaabari is well worth an each-way bet in this. She is from the family that produced the likes of Luso, Needle Gun and Warrsan and could be one for a middle-distance race later in the season. Amazingly, her dam Cloud Castle won the Nell Gwynn at 33/1 and while the win may be beyond her, Brittain's horses are quite often overpriced for their races so she may be worth a small e/w bet.

Newm445  REDWOOD - 3.9 Betfair
A lot of vibes about this one from the Hills yard and he was my first Derby ante-post bet at 65 on Betfair, I advise a small interest as I think his odds will shorten if he wins this well. Barry Hills not only has an excellent record at Newmarket but is one of the best in the biz at producing one ready and fit first time out and this High Chaparral colt out of a Woodman mare is exceptionally well bred and could be his Derby hope. I generally make it a rough rule to pay particularly close attention to an Sheik Mo or Abdullah-owned horse when it is trained by one of the top-boys. I will probably lay the Cecil favourite if it's odds-on at about 20% shorter than it's SP in-running...more of that when I have some time regarding a possible new laying strategy of odds-on shots.

Newm 520 Formula or Invisible Man ?
I tend not to bet much in maidens, preferring to watch unless I hear or see something of interest. One of my favourite strategies is to concentrate on the top-3 in the market and then watch which one shortens up the most. Generally speaking, that is quite relevant so 'll keep an eye on the market and keep my ear to the ground from the few contacts I have that know about maidens/juvenile races to see if there is a word for anything.

Newm555 Definightly e/w
Finally, a handicap to get stuck into ;-) I don't have a strong opinion on this race. Green Beret won well last time but so too did Servoca while Dark Mischief beat Green Beret last season. Definightly missed the break last time in France and if you ignore that run his form looks good enough so he will do for me for a small each-way bet but a race to tread cautiously in.

Phew, glad that is over. Now onto the rest of the day's action, some good stuff at Cheltenham and Fairyhouse but not so good at Beverley or Kempton in the evening.

Starting at Cheltenham and again I may lay Torpichen if he is odds-on in the 2:10. He was poor at Cheltenham and may not like the track, the stable is not firing on all cylinders at the moment and he meets a potentially useful opponent in Tasheba whose connections are in form.

Chelt320 DAVES DREAM - 5/1 Bet365
Mr Geraghty I felt was a bit too easy on Dave's Dream at Cheltenham costing me an each-way wager but I intend to get it back today;-) He stayed on to great effect up the hill that day and it was a great effort nonetheless coming just a week after his Imperial Cup win. He has had the last month off and this extra 1/2 mile should be ideal. 5/1 with Bet365 best odds guaranteed should be snapped up for a lumpy each-way bet as I can't have him out the frame this time with a stronger chance of the win than at Cheltenham in a less competitive race now that he has had a rest.

Chelt430 MY FRIEND SANDY
                  BENCH WARRANT
Both these runners ran solid races last time and should go well for each-way bets. Jim Old had a winner on Monday and has struggled for a while now but My Friend Sandy ran his best race for a while when a staying on 2nd. Would have finished closer but for a mistake 2 out but is worth backing with signs the stable may have a little spurt of decent form ahead. Bench Warrant is marvelously consistent and he can give the weight away here. I always like a horse that can make a lot of running and then fight back when headed, it shows a gameness quality which is what you need in these races.

Fairyhouse looks too trappy although Carrigeen Kalmia in the 3:00 could win the Mares race she won last year while Panzer Chief in the 4:05, Jaamid in the 4:35 and Mustangsallyrally in the 5:10 are the best of the rest on a very trappy card.

Beverley and the introduction of the draw, or should I say pace. This from the ATR draw guide -:

"The 5f trip at Beverley has long been regarded as arguably the strongest draw bias C&D in the country. High draws have enjoyed a significant advantage for many years. If we look at the result of 10 runner or more handicaps since 2005 we get the following draw split:
Top "third" of the draw: 51.7% (wins), 47.7% (placed)
Middle "third" of the draw: 34.5% (wins), 35.1% (placed)
Bottom "third" of the draw: 13.8% (wins), 17.2% (placed)"

So over 1/2 the winners come from the top-3rd in the draw and just less than half place.

Beve310 Manzila - Fol Hollow
2nd-rated Fyodor is drawn low so I will add in 3rd-rated Fol Hollow who has a particularly good posi in stall 15 and likes to race prominantly. French listed-winner Manzila is also 'just' in the top-3rd of the draw in stall 12 and is another with a chance although that one may find the ground a bit lively but it's not the best race in the world.

Beve345 New Beginning
Dropped to a mark almost 20lb lower than when last successful but ran best race in ages back on turf last time. Robert Winston is in for a good season and although a high'ish draw over a mile isn't as advantageous as it is over shorter distances it still can't hurt.

Beve455 Labisa
Roger Charlton doesn't have a lot of runners at Beverley and this one looks a likely winner.

Kemp720 SIMPLIFICATION 8.2 Betfair
I think it's significant that Ryan Moore has chosen Simplification over Brooksby and it's also significant if Kaabari runs a big race in the Nell Gwynn as he finished 1/4 length behind that rival last time. Could be well in on that run and with a fitness advantage over a few rivals rates an each-way bet.

At Kempton, it can also pay to have a high draw so Compton Classic is interesting in the 7:50

Course	Time	Horse	RAT	RATR	Sup
BEVERLEY	3-10	Manzila (FR)	419	1	+3
BEVERLEY	3-10	Fyodor (IRE)	416	2
BEVERLEY	3-45	New Beginning (IRE)	354	1	+11
BEVERLEY	3-45	Inside Story (IRE)	343	2
BEVERLEY	4-20	Dubai Crest	355	1	+4
BEVERLEY	4-20	Amethyst Dawn (IRE)	351	2
BEVERLEY	4-55	Labisa (IRE)	322	1	+12
BEVERLEY	4-55	Dancing Wave	310	2
BEVERLEY	5-30	Woteva	325	1	+9
BEVERLEY	5-30	Dispol Diva	316	2
CHELTENHAM	2-10	Torphichen	520	1	+49
CHELTENHAM	2-10	Rory Boy (USA)	471	2
CHELTENHAM	2-45	Boychuk (IRE)	537	1	+8
CHELTENHAM	2-45	Le Duc (FR)	529	2
CHELTENHAM	3-20	The Polomoche (IRE)	555	1	+14
CHELTENHAM	3-20	Dave's Dream (IRE)	541	2
CHELTENHAM	3-55	Private Be	576	1	+6
CHELTENHAM	3-55	Oslot (FR)	570	2
CHELTENHAM	4-30	My Friend Sandy	471	1	+5
CHELTENHAM	4-30	Bench Warrent (IRE)	466	2
CHELTENHAM	5-05	Lodge Lane (IRE)	548	1	+8
CHELTENHAM	5-05	Buck The Legend (IRE)	540	2
FAIRYHOUSE	3-00	Carrigeen Kalmia (IRE)	506	1	+46
FAIRYHOUSE	3-00	Shesadoll (IRE)	460	2
FAIRYHOUSE	4-05	Panzer Chief (FR)	456	1	+16
FAIRYHOUSE	4-05	Ross River	440	2
FAIRYHOUSE	4-35	Jaamid	454	1	+94
FAIRYHOUSE	4-35	Shan't Complain (IRE)	360	2
FAIRYHOUSE	5-10	Mustangsallyrally (IRE)	474	1	+13
FAIRYHOUSE	5-10	Ted Gunther (IRE)	461	2
KEMPTON (A.W)	7-20	Simplification	351	1	+2
KEMPTON (A.W)	7-20	Herschel (IRE)	349	2
KEMPTON (A.W)	7-50	Hollow Jo	329	1	+2
KEMPTON (A.W)	7-50	Compton Classic	327	2
KEMPTON (A.W)	8-50	Potentiale (IRE)	347	1	+4
KEMPTON (A.W)	8-50	Hucking Hero (IRE)	343	2
KEMPTON (A.W)	9-20	Woodcote Place	389	1	+5
KEMPTON (A.W)	9-20	Princely Hero (IRE)	384	2
NEWMARKET	2-25	Hearts Of Fire	223	1	+5
NEWMARKET	2-25	Monsieur Chevalier (IRE)	218	2
NEWMARKET	3-00	Liberation (IRE)	427	1	+23
NEWMARKET	3-00	Weald Park (USA)	404	2
NEWMARKET	3-35	Art Connoisseur (IRE)	460	1	+3
NEWMARKET	3-35	Penny's Gift	457	2
NEWMARKET	4-10	Fantasia	444	1	+34
NEWMARKET	4-10	Summer Fete (IRE)	410	2
NEWMARKET	4-45	Drumbeat (IRE)	436	1	+0
NEWMARKET	4-45	On Our Way	436	2
NEWMARKET	5-55	Definightly	400	1	+2
NEWMARKET	5-55	Aldermoor (USA)	398	2

Tuesday Bets/Ratings - Carthalawn to mow down rivals @ Fairyhouse

Ok, first of all someone has asked if I can nominate clearly my best bet of the day each day so I'm going to try to do it in the title of the daily post. Well I am thinking of introducing a points-based staking plan shortly but until then you will have to make do with drawing your own conclusions. I find it difficult to be definite about 'best bets' when most of the racing is so average as it has been since after Aintree and the start of the flat is always a very dicey time. If I had to have just one bet today though it would probably be a decent-sized each-way on Carthalawn in the 4:00 at Fairyhouse but I'll rundown all the races I like the look of on Tuesday.

Fairy225 EBADIYAN - 2.2 Paddy Power
Very unlucky when running out and hitting the rail when in with a chance of winning at Cheltenham in the Triumph Hurdle and this 'should' be a walk in the park. Having said that, the ground will be plenty lively enough but the 6/5 odds-against the favourite will probably be worth taking with Paddy Power as he could go odds-on and they offer best-odds guaranteed.

Fairy255 CLAN TARA - 7 Betfair
This gutsy novice looks to be up against it conceding weight all round but no more so than Roberto Goldback who is half his odds. Clan Tara ran impressive Cheltenham winner Mikhael D'Haguenet to 3 lengths at Naas in January and won a Grade2 last time so I can't believe the price of 7 will last long on Betfair. I will be looking to have a lumpy each-way with a bookie if I can find one paying 4 or 5/1.

Fairy400 CARTHALAWN - 6.2 Betfair
Ran a superb 3rd in the Pierse hurdle off just a 6lb lower mark before going close in a Grade 2 Chase to Glenfinn Captain and then landing a Grade 2 chase from Schindlers Hunt. That form over fences was top-class given the latter's subsequent 3rd in the Ryannair and head defeat to Voy Por Ustedes in the Melling Chase. That makes his mark of 142 over fences look very lenient indeed and it's likelier he should be rated closer to 160. Either way, he is looking absolutely chucked in over hurdles off a mark of 124 with the jockey taking off a further 3lb (was on board in the Pierse) and he could be chucked in. It doesn't always work out that way, but he has to be a decent bet at 6.2 on Betfair even just based on his Pierse form. He must start shorter surely and I will be having a decent bet on this and backing on the place market on Betfair as there will be surely a non-runner reducing the field to less than 16 runners and losing out on the extra place if bet with traditional bookies, not that  I expect that to be an issue really.

Yarm320 BILLY BEETROOT - 5.1 Betfair
Is only 'just' rated behind Lovely Thought here and the better value of the two. Lovely Thought clearly improved for the application of blinkers last backend but that win came on soft ground, she has not run for 168 days and the initial effect of the application of blinkers can wear off. Billy Beetroot on the other hand comes here fresh from a couple of decent efforts at Bath and Nottingham and actually has first time blinkers on today and that could make the difference. Any money for him would only increase confidence from this shrewd yard and Spencer is an eye-catching booking. 5.1 on Betfair and could shorten. Alternatively, I will be looking for 4/1+ with a traditional bookie for an each-way bet.

Yarm350 BOUVARDIA - 4.2 Betfair
Henry Cecil has started the season well with wins the last week for Borntobouggie and Warpedsenseofhumour so he clearly has not lost his knack of preparing one first time out and Bouvardia rates a possible decent each-way lump job here if close to the 5/1 quote on the Sporting Life site. He does well with his runners at Yarmouth and this won has already won over the course. Although her win came over 6f she shows plenty of early speed and it's possible this 5f trip will see her to even better effect.

Yarm450 BUDDHIST MONK - 7.8 Betfair
Purchased out of Sir Mark Prescott's yard by Ian Williams, ran a better race than it looked last time considering he had no room AND his saddle slipped so it was an encouraging effort to finish 6th first time out and he will strip fitter for that. He went close in a class2 handicap at Haydock last term, albeit over a longer trip than this but he represents decent each-way value. A Cumani hot shot got turned over yesterday and Bullet Man looks plenty short enough considering his win came on the a-weather and he has been off for 118 days and I am a lot more worried about the Michael Jarvis runner Dark Prospect who had a couple of narrow defeats here last term. He may be worth a small cover bet for the Buddhist Monk win stake.

Exet210 FREDDY'S STAR - 9.2 Betfair
You can't see it but Freddy's Star is a close 3rd on my ratings here. One of the reasons for putting him up is that I think Beverley Hill Billy is one to take on at the price rather than get blindly involved in backing the top-rated. I have him on my notes as "decidedly one-paced" so I think he needs to be stepped up in trip, he has been off the track for some time and his price owes more to the trainer than anything else. Freddy's Star is fit, and went very close over C&D last time and can make up for that near miss here at a decent each-way price.

Exet310 PRESENTING EXPRESS - 4.5 Betfair
Emma Lavelle is in fine form and this course winner ran a good 2nd last time, clear of the remainder. He has his ground today and has a touch more class than his rivals so should prove tough to beat.

Exet410 FIT TO DRIVE - 2.64 Betfair
I would have Fit To Drive as favourite over Jigsaw Dancer here. Ok Jigsaw Dancer drops in class but he showed nothing in the Grand Annual, pulled up the time before and arguably needs a softer surface to show his best. Fit To Drive on the other hand is in form after 3 near misses on Grade1 tracks, acts on fast ground and is in receipt of 7lb from the top-weight.

Mark300 WHISKEY MAGIC - 4.5 Betfair
C&D winner who was unlucky last time, being hampered by a loose horse and then just failing to stay on approaching the last hurdle. He has the highest superiority figure of horses running on Tuesday and looks the value shout.

Course	Time	Horse	RAT	RATR	Sup
EXETER	2-10	Beverly Hill Billy	423	1	13
EXETER	2-10	Darn Hot	410	2
EXETER	2-40	Vodka Brook (IRE)	487	1	135
EXETER	2-40	Gentle Ranger (IRE)	352	2
EXETER	3-10	Presenting Express (IRE)	495	1	27
EXETER	3-10	Ibberton	468	2
EXETER	3-40	Raslan	505	1	15
EXETER	3-40	Honour High	490	2
EXETER	4-10	Fit To Drive	498	1	42
EXETER	4-10	Jigsaw Dancer (IRE)	456	2
FAIRYHOUSE	2-25	Flag Of Honour (IRE)	452	1	67
FAIRYHOUSE	2-25	Ebadiyan (IRE)	385	2
FAIRYHOUSE	2-55	Clan Tara (IRE)	512	1	11
FAIRYHOUSE	2-55	Quiscover Fontaine (FR)	501	2
FAIRYHOUSE	3-25	Perce Rock	562	1	12
FAIRYHOUSE	3-25	Reisk Superman (IRE)	550	2
FAIRYHOUSE	4-00	Carthalawn (IRE)	592	1	18
FAIRYHOUSE	4-00	Psycho (IRE)	574	2
FAIRYHOUSE	4-35	Handfull Of Euros (IRE)	536	1	6
FAIRYHOUSE	4-35	Prudent Honour (IRE)	530	2
FAIRYHOUSE	5-05	Natural Storm (IRE)	470	1	1
FAIRYHOUSE	5-05	The Penitent Man (IRE)	469	2
MARKET RASEN	2-00	Industrial Star (IRE)	429	1	14
MARKET RASEN	2-00	Sassanias (FR)	415	2
MARKET RASEN	2-30	Gloucester	473	1	3
MARKET RASEN	2-30	Pagano (IRE)	470	2
MARKET RASEN	3-00	Whisky Magic (FR)	464	1	138
MARKET RASEN	3-00	Springfield Raki	326	2
MARKET RASEN	3-30	The Dark Lord (IRE)	499	1	4
MARKET RASEN	3-30	Mizen Raven (IRE)	495	2
MARKET RASEN	4-00	Wind Instrument (IRE)	488	1	9
MARKET RASEN	4-00	Calusa Caldera (IRE)	479	2
YARMOUTH	3-20	Lovely Thought	299	1	2
YARMOUTH	3-20	Oisin's Boy	297	2
YARMOUTH	3-50	Bouvardia	360	1	4
YARMOUTH	3-50	Peninsular War	356	2
YARMOUTH	4-20	Kokkokila	326	1	18
YARMOUTH	4-20	Russian Invader (IRE)	308	2
YARMOUTH	4-50	Buddhist Monk	390	1	3
YARMOUTH	4-50	Dark Prospect	387	2

Easter Monday Review

A poor day with lots of near-misses. From 32 top-rated runners there were just 6 winners with Glengarra at 8/1 and Tampa Boy at 13/2 the pick of them. However, there were no fewer than 9 runners that placed including the shortlisted runners Rare Coincidence, Ballyvaden, Fantoche, and Stewarts House. Hopefully you will have done them each-way to limit any losses. I generally bet each way at 4/1+ as even if they place you almost recoup all the stake most of the time. I do expect longer losing runs with my method as I am not picking short-priced/odds-on favourites in general, but Monday was very frustrating indeed.

I was especially mystified by the 'ride' given to Garde Champetre in the Irish National. It was never put in the race but Nina Carberry did not appear to push it at any stage despite the fact the horse was jumping for fun, I didn't like that one bit and it was very sad to see the loss of two horses, notably Wichita Lineman who had been so brave and game at Cheltenham.

I'm now beginning to feel wind-down mode coming on for the jumps season with the Newmarket Craven meeting starting on Wednesday.

Laying System

One thing I noticed today is that if I had had the time to lay all 12 odds-on favourites on Monday then I would have collected just 4 times as 8 of them went on to win. You would think this would be disastrous but I worked out afterwards if I had managed to lay them all at close to their SP for 10 pounds a time then it would only have resulted in an 8 pounds loss due to the fact so many of them were very short priced winners. This is encouraging and I will have to look into this further as I believe there is a makings of a profitable laying system here for odds-on shots as today was an exceptional day for them. I am working on downloading the Betfair historical price data to determine how much on average the price shortens from it's odds before it goes in-play and how that relates to the SP.