Saturday @ Sandown & Ratings

Assuming Sandown goes ahead, here is my take on each race...

Sandown 1:00 UNITED

Looks my best bet of the day after doing me a favour last week but odds are likely to be restrictive. compared to then but hopefully not odds-on. However, she is rated clear ahead of the 2nd Blaeberry and if she reproduces her form from last week then she takes the beating although I am often wary of backing horses on their 2nd run after a long abscence at such short odds.

Sandown 1:30 STOW

I think is the value call here. I am often tempted to lay hurdlers at evens or less if the won their last race when odds-on but Helium is rated just a little too close to Stow and did clock better figures last time. However, Venetia Williams is getting a lot of winners at the moment and could be a value alternative.

Sandown 2:00 NEW LITTLE BRIC

Not to be recommended to usually back a horse whose form figures read PU-5-PU-5 but he has had a breathing op, drops in class and after looking at the others I think he will take the beating round here. He is an athletic type who seems to be quite well suited to these fences as when 3rd a few years back in the Henry VII and when scoring in the Scilly Isles novices here and is on a fair mark despite shouldering top-weight. Cresswell Willow is 2nd on the ratings but has to defy a 9lb rise and a step up in class again which may find him out and these fences may also prove a problem for him. Zacharova is 3rd on the ratings after a win last time but a closer inspection of that race reveals the field was halved after a number of withdrawals. A 12lb rise and step up in class could find him out. Out The Black has been dropped a pound despite a fair 4th in a listed handicap at Ascot two weeks ago. He had a hard race there though and this comes plenty soon enough. Earlier in the spring he had beaten Briery Fox by just under a length but the latter has a 7lb pull, didn't like the soft ground last time so has a chance off his lowest mark for some time but jumping is often an issue with him.

Sandown 2:40 DEE EE WILLIAMS

I jumped in a bit early in-running when backing DEW for the Supreme Novice Hurdle last time thinking he had won only to be outdone near the line but nevertheless it was a very strong race, he pulled quite hard but showed a lot of grit and determination. This track (and indeed Cheltenham) should be right up his street and he is taken to win this in some style. Despite Nicholls record in this race I am tempted to put up MAHONIA as the lay of the day at 2/1 or less. With Dee Ee Williams in the race he is going to need to improve markedly to win this especially after a beating at odds-on last time and lets not forget potential improvers Clay Hollister and Somersby in the field. Clay Hollister represents the Binocular connections and scored well over c&d which could be key but the form didn't look anything special and Somersby could be a bigger threat with Hen Knight showing signs of form and his win has been boosted since.

Sandown 3:15 LORD HENRY & HOO LA BALOO (EW)

Sometimes I look at a race and a price jumps out and that is the case with HOO LA BALOO here. Running off a mark of 150, it was only just over a year ago that he ran a solid 4th in the GD1 Tingle Creek here followed by a 2nd to Voy Por Ustedes in the GD2 Desert Orchid Chase and ended the season with a 3rd in the Betfred (4lb higher than today) having been upsides the winner at the last. He clearly loves Sandown and is versatile and I think you can largely ignore his last 3 runs where a combination of trips, tracks and ground have been against him. Back over 2 miles, at Sandown on good ground he will run a bigger race than his 25/1 forecast odds suggest so have an e/w bet on him. LORD HENRY is top-rated and although his mark looks lofty, he has been dropped a few pounds following below par efforts when boxing above his class. His record in handicaps is pretty solid, has his ideal conditions and although this comes soon enough after his last run we are compensated by a value each-way price of 12/1 in an open handicap. Medicinal may prefer softer ground and Oneway could be a bigger danger, this one ran 4th to Moscow Flyer in a Queen Mother and 3rd to Kauto Star in a Tingle Creek but lost his way until a fair effort last time. He goes well here but the odds are not quite big enough for my liking and he is not getting any younger. The one I am excited to see back on the course though is Killaghy Castle who was an excellent novice before a tendon injury kept him out of action. He may not even run but if he lines up then take it as a sign that he is in good form and he did win 2 novices around here. Chances are though that if the ground is too firm he will not be knocked about too much but keep an eye on him.

Sandown 3:50 TAKE THE BREEZE & WINGMAN (EW)

Trappy handicap hurdle to finish with. Take The Breeze ran ok in the Ladbroke and will find this a bit easier while I think Wingman would have been the better option for Jamie Moore. Taking into account the jockeys allowance he is only 5lb higher than when scoring from Punjabi in the Totesport Trophy and although he won that on good to soft I have always felt, being flat-bred, he is better on top of the ground. 16/1 looks big. Other outsiders are Matuhi for McCoy at 14/1 and Freeloader who is dropping down the handicap and run a decent race a couple of outings ago.

Apart from UNITED being the highest rated and MAHONIA my only lay tomorrow, none of the other Sandown runners feature on my top-10 best bets on Saturday, they are...

Wincanton 2:25 WHITEWATER DASH

Kempton 4:10  TUXEDO

Lingfield 1:45 WHISTLEDOWNWIND

Wincanton 3:30 SAUNDERS ROAD

Full ratings here....

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=plF_F9ciElbN0G_Z5anftbQ

Friday Ratings

On Friday if Folkestone goes ahead it will be worth keeping an eye on MOUNT BENGER in the 3:40 who is highly rated and clear of the 2nd Saint Eric. MISTRESS TO NO ONE in the 1:00 is also worth a 2nd look and is highly rated. I'll pick one each from the all-weather just in case. HOLD THE BUCKS can win the 7:20 at Wolverhampton although may be poor odds while NIGHTJAR looks a good bet in the 12:40 at Southwell. Despite a good record for the lays on NY day I can't find a single candidae worth laying on Friday at short enough odds.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=plF_F9ciElbObsbwCO8KCaA

New Years Day Ratings

Happy NY All

Not sure how many meetings will survive the frost on NY Day but before I get into the ratings and best bets I will highlight a little method I use which is to follow winners that scored at big odds last time. Chances are they are often underestimated next time because a lot of punters believe it was a fluke win. Generally, this is not the case and they can go on to score again at big odds. The two that fit the bill on NY day are...

Fakenham 12:35 PRINCESS STEPHANIE

Cheltenham 1:05 GAELIC GIFT

Princess Stephanie may need this run after a long abscence but 7/1 is still fair value and is 5lb lower as a result of that absence.

Gaelic Gift is 9lb higher than his last win a year ago but it was at this track and he did win easily, 20/1 quotes look big despite the step up in class.

Elsewhere...my best bet is probably MISTRESS TO NO ONE in the 2:25 at Exeter who is well clear on the ratings and is the highest rated runner tomorrow.

Next best I have NO REFUGE in the 3:20 at Cheltenham who I think will show his class.

Over at Southwell MATSUNOSUKE can go well in the 1:00 while watch out for BOW SCHOOL in the 3:35 at Catterick. 

At Cheltenham, the 2:45 handicap hurdle has Ballydub as a short-priced favourite but he has been upped 14lb in the weights for his win last time and is up against BIG BUCKS who was a GD2 winning novice hurdler in France and a GD2 winning chaser here and looks the value call.

Right, I think I have all the meetings covered...here are the ratings...green are the best bets while red indicate the best lays. 

I think the best lays are PARADISE EXPECTED in the 12:35 at Fakenham, RED TARN in the 12:25 at Southwell, MISS XU XIA in the 2:40 at Southwell and MOZAYADA in the 3:15 at Southwell.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=plF_F9ciElbMGbAhp4t9GMA

Just a little rundown on the big handicap as a bonus ;-) I have My Petra top-rated for the Skybet handicap chase at Cheltenham in the 2:10 today and she has a chance off a similar mark when 2nd to Gwanako last time at Ascot but this comes plenty quick enough and she had quite a hard race there. She is 19lb higher than when first scoring in November at Wetherby but I just wonder if this comes a bit soon and the price is short enough for a race of this nature for me. It's great to see Hobbs Hill back after a long abscence but I wonder how well handicapped he is after such a long layoff. I know he goes well fresh but I prefer to see a horse prove a fall like that has left no ill-effects. This is his first handicap and although he is exciting to watch, I just wonder if this is the right comeback race for him although I 'may' have a cover bet at 8/1. He fell last time in the GD2 Pendil which brings me on to my first selection in the race. OSLOT had his measure that day before he crashed out which is the one I like for this. Interestingly, as pointed out in Raceform Update this week, Nicholls was in flying form at Xmas but of the 6 odds-on shots he sent out, only Kauto Star scored. He did however have 6 winners in a 2-day spell at prices up to 7/1 so if I'm going to be backing one of his I want a decent price and Oslot fits the bill. After winning the Pendil he improved rapidly culminating in a win in the summer in the Galway Plate. He reappeared off a mark of 157 in the GD3 Old Roan chase but was not disgraced on ground possibly a lot softer than ideal and when you look at that race it was a very decent effort with Exotic Dancer, Snoopy Loopy and Voy Por Ustedes not far ahead of him. Oslot was running a big race in the Amlin last time before clouting one two out which stopped him in his tracks. Re-united with Ruby Walsh, over a more suitable trip on better ground, he looks a great shout at 8/1+ for a lumpy each-way bet. The other I like is TOO FORWARD who loves this c&d. Ran 2nd to Fondmort in this back in 2006, ran 2nd to Our Vic here a the same year in the Silver Trophy over c&d off a mark of 147, won this race off a mark of 144 in 2007 from Nozic, ran 2nd again in that year's Silver Trophy off 151 and was 4th in this last year to Vodka Bleu off 148. Now, a couple of key things. First of all he had his first run for his new yard last time after a long abscence so can be expected to improve for that run and possibly the change of stables. Secondly, he clearly loves the c&d, goes on any ground and if you take his jockeys allowance into account he runs here off a mark of 136 so is potentially very well handicapped on his best form. 20/1 looks huge despite the fact he is not getting any younger and any rain would help a lot.

Sports Writers/Fans wanted

I'm putting together a sports/betting website and am looking for any writers/tipsters/fans or anyone who fancies contributing. I'm hoping to build it up to an online sports/betting community websites with racing & sports tips, trading, forum, competitions etc...more in the New Year but if you are interested in helping out please get in touch and give me an idea of what you would like to contribute or help in anyway.

Wednesday Bets

Wow, another couple of good calls....I am going to go for the hat-trick on Wednesday to pay for the Veuve Clicquot hopefully.

One thing I have noticed doing a bit of research on Raceform Interactive is how poor the record of odds-on hurdlers (especially handicaps) are, particularly when coming off a win last time out so I think a profitable laying system could be built from it. I don't particularly like the fact he is top-rated but CRUISE DIRECTOR in the 2:40 at Uttoxeter is likely to go off an odds-on shot on Wednesday. In the long term it pays to lay these so long as they are evens or shorter so watch the market, Hever Road and Federstar could win this but there are 15 rivals that could do him in this race.

Thats the lay out of the way so what about the backs....

My best bet comes in the way of the 12:50 at Warwick. Raised 11lb since his last win TASTES LIKE MORE is improving rapidly and will take all the beating. The Donald McCain stable is red hot, he is the highest rated runner running on Wednesday, clear of the 2nd Devil's Creek and worth the main bet at forecast odds of 4/1.

Next best is in the 3:10 at Uttoxeter. This looks quite competitive at first glance but SAUNDERS ROAD looks a value call here at around 11/2 after a very impressive win at Cheltenham last time. The odds mean that if you are the cautious type you can lump on each-way and still get a return if he places but I think he will win.

All the ratings are here, I'm happy with the way they are performing lately...

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=plF_F9ciElbMXKUJE8rm4Rg

Tuesday Ratings

Good day yesterday with a few big-priced, top-rated winners and managing to call the race right in Ireland. 

Unfortunately, Haydock has left us with limited opportunities on Tuesday with most of the best,  top-rated bets (horses highlighted in green) odds-on or short-price. 

One race that does look interesting is the first at Lingfield 12:20. Acropolis is rated 23lb the superior of Bridgewater Boys on official ratings but he is unproven on this surface and has been out of form for quite some time so I think he will be worth a lay at less than 2/1. BRIDGEWATER BOYS on the other hand is a course and distance winner, Gary Moore is excellent in these types of races, is in form and the horse clocked an RPR figure 22lb higher last time than Acropolis did.

Here are the rest of the ratings...

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=plF_F9ciElbPIglwTc2IocQ

Monday's Ratings

Monday's best bets are -:

Leopardstown 3:25 RHYL ACCORD

Musselburgh 1:50 DON'T STOP ME NOW

Newbury 1:35  GONE TO LUNCH

Musselburgh 12:10 BROADWAY STAR

I don't usually go in for lays especially if I have it top-rated but I think POMME TIEPY could be worth taking on in the 2:25 at Leopardstown. She clocked a raceform figure 15lb lower than forecast 2nd favourite GIVE IT TIME did last time and looked decidedly one-paced. The latter however ran a decent 3rd to Catch Me and Whatuthink 2 outings ago and those two franked the form on Sunday. She ran off too fast last time but still held on for 3rd in another decent GD2 event. Rumoured to be aiming for the David Nicholson Mares event at the festival, this represents a considerable drop in class for Give It Time and I think she will take some pegging back. The bookies look to have the front-2 reversed in the betting purely based on the recent form of Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh.

Rest of the days ratings...

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=plF_F9ciElbMQs8_lQIXEUg