Benandonner the Lincoln value

Richard Fahey can land the first big race on the opening day of the flat season with BENANDONNER in the 3:55 at Doncaster. The Lincoln is the traditional curtain-raiser to the start of the flat and it's hard to know if the draw will affect the outcome after the recent changes to the track at Doncaster, so it's best to not try to overthink it.  Benandonner ran a good trial for this when 4th in a listed contest at Wolverhampton recently. 2nd in the Spring Mile and the Spring Cup last season, he is clearly very effective over this mile trip. The trainer has a good record in handicaps and at 16/1 he rates decent each-way value. Although a 9yo, previous winner Blythe Knight ran a good trial for this when 2nd at Kempton last month but a bigger danger could be DOCOFTHEBAY who is overpriced at 28/1 based on his 2nd in the Hunt Cup last season in first time blinkers, he has slipped down the handicap to a winnable mark and the blinkers are back on today with his optimum conditions. Those two will do for me.

The Spring Mile at 2:45 looks wide-open but I like at Kevin Ryan's MAJURO at 16/1 who is well worth an each-way bet. He has been in-form on the all-weather and could be well-handicapped back on turf. The main danger looks to be top-weight Mangham who goes very well fresh and could be worth a cover bet while Flying Cape is another potential improver.

Best bet tomorrow looks to be ERADICATE in the 2:50 at Lingfield for the in-form Henderson/Geraghty duo. I'm hoping he will be odds-against, otherwise he could become a lay bet as part of my laying system of those at evens or odds-on, but he should take all the beating.

Another jumper that is a short price but could take some beating is RASH MOMENT in the 4:55 at Uttoxeter and he can land the hat-trick.

Another trainer in good  form is Barry Hills and he can take the 4:30 at Doncaster with ABOVE AVERAGE although as with most races today each-way caution is advisable.

Yet another trainer in f0rm is Mark Johnston and best of his runners on Saturday looks to be SAINT ARCH in the 1:50 at Kempton.

4 Others I like on Saturday that top my ratings are ICELANDIC in the 3:20 at Doncaster, TANKS FOR THAT in the 2:15 at Lingfield, REGAL PARADE in the 4:45 at Kempton and BRONZE CANNON in the 3:35 at Kempton.

Over in Dubai, it's tricky knowing what the weather is going to do but ones I like for a small interest are last year's Lockinge winner CREACHADOIR in the Dubai Duty Free at 3:55. He also ran 2nd in 2007 in the French and Irish 2000 Guineas so clearly has a touch of class over this mile trip. He has recovered from a near-fatal injury so it's a tough ask but it's built into the price at 25/1. 

The Sheema Classic at 4:40 could go to KING OF ROME who ran a good 3rd last time in a GP2 over course and distance, represents trainer Mike De Kock, has Johnny Murtagh on board and at double-figure odds could be worth a small e/w bet.

Finally, I'll be kicking off the laying system again, basically I will be laying all horse at evens or shorter in non-handicaps. 15pts lay on the jumps, 25pts lay on the flat. The overall running P&L is +12.65 and I will be looking to increase the 'stakes' in a few weeks or so if all goes well.

As far as the 50k challenge bets go. I am starting with 1000 and aiming to make 2% of the bank each day. I will stop at a winner once the 2% target has been hit and take a percentage out each week as a 'wage'. Obviously this will be low to start with but hopefully as the bank grows so will the take-out. t the moment I am avoiding turf flat races until the season has bedded in. So the target for Saturday is 20 quid and the 5 horses that I will be using for it are -:

1:50 Kempton Saint Arch

2:15 Lingfield Tanks For That

2:50 Lingfield Eradicate

4:55 Uttoxeter Rash Moment

5:45 Lingfield Hudibras