CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL THURSDAY - RACEBETS REVIEW

1:30 JEWSON NOVICE H/C CHASE - Usually when I can't narrow down a race to just two and I find myself struggling to pick between 3 or 4 it is a sign to reduce stakes and so it proved today where the handicaps were tough. It started off with the 6th rated Chapoturgeon scoring. Straw Bear ran ok for a while but would have been better over 2 miles. Naiad Du Misselot seemed to hate the blinkers so I had a new rule, beware 1st time blinkers, especially in big fields.

2:05 PERTEMPS FINAL HURDLE - Another ultra-competitive handicap and I will be staying away from those at the top of the  weights in this race in the future, especially on tacky ground as it really takes some getting. The 8th-rated Kayf Aramis stayed on very well to score. 

2:40 RYANNAIR CHASE - Another shock and a reminder that short-priced favourites are avoided at the festival. Almost all the supposed bankers have been turned over yet again.  Imperial Commander clearly loves Cheltenham but had been marked down after a poor effort last time, with the 2nd and 3rd being 1st and 4th on the ratings.

3:20 WORLD HURDLE - Highlight of the meeting for me so far. As it came closer and closer I became more and more confident that Big Bucks would not be out the frame and had a good chance of confirming the form. There is no bigger fallacy in racing than weight-turnarounds so although I was worried about Punchestowns enough to cover the win part of the Big Bucks bet I was not overly concerned. I actually put more on than I felt comfortable with and then began to realise that he could actually fall(!). However, the race worked out really well and I had the forecast and the lay on the underpriced favourite as well so it made my festival and gave me lots of ammo for the final day. Hope some of you made it pay.

4:00 FESTIVAL PLATE CHASE - I think I may have to re-assess how I rate handicaps as I seem to be over-rating those at the top of the handicap quite often.  I was kicking myself a bit here because Something Wells was actually a stats horse alongside Osako D'Airy when I first did my analysis but I excluded him and this was a another cracking race for Venetia Williams who has become first-class at preparing her handicappers to peak at the right time.

4:40 KIM MUIR CHASE - Pretty Star went close for us in 2nd but the winner did this easily and I didn't see it coming. I remember noting him a few times at Cheltenham and when 3rd in Denman's Hennessy but he ran no sort of race last time and this was quite a shock but another reason to be wary of big-field Amateur events.

Overall a very trappy day but hopefully none of you got stuck in too hard on the handicaps and could sense the strength of opinion I had in the 3:20. Final day tomorrow, analysis to follow.