CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL WEDNESDAY - RACEBETS RATINGS & SELECTIONS

1:30 KORNATI KID (PARSONS PISTOL)
2:05 MIKAEL D'HAGUENET (KARABAK - cover)
2:40 WHAT A FRIEND (KILLYGLEN)
3:20 MASTER MINDED (PETIT ROBIN w/o fav)
4:00 PIERROT LUNAIRE (NINETIETH MINUTE)
4:40 SATICON (SKI SUNDAY)
5:15 CADSPEED

Not a bad day on Tuesday but Wednesday looks like it could be bookies-benefit day and I may reduce stakes slightly in a few races. We start off with an amateur rider race over 4 miles, followed by a novice hurdle, a wide open Sun Alliance, a potential walk in the park, a 28-runner handicap, a juvenile hurdle and a bumper...looks very dicey. Mikael D'Haguenet is the one I really like tomorrow but I suspect I'll need to find the winner of the Coral Cup to make the day truly profitable. I can't separate Pierrot Lunaire, Ninetieth Minute, Lough Derg or Franchoek so I'll probably back them all and do combination exactas but it  feels a day to tread carefully.

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1:30 NATIONAL HUNT CHASE

Poor way to start the day in my opinion watching a bunch of amateurs hacking round over  4 miles. I actually had Can't Buy Time shortlisted for Tuesday's NH Chase won by his stablemate Wichita Lineman so he is interesting, although not really at 5/1. The two I really like are rated 1st and 3rd and are also two horses I actually had shortlisted stats-wise for the RSA Chase, so interesting they are lining up here. I will probably go for an e/w on KORNATI KID at 9/1 and a smaller e/w on PARSONS PISTOL at 14/1 with perhaps a small cover bet on Can't Buy Time but not a race to get too carried away in.

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14:05 BALLYMORE NOVICE HURDLE



Not much leeway on this race although it does look as if Karabak is going to be tough to beat on the ratings but the prices are fairly skinny on all the top-3 on the ratings. However, looking through the videos of Irish races there were two horses that stood out for me in terms of jumping and the way they travelled. One was Go Native and the other was MIKAEL D'HAGUENET and I think he will take a lot of stopping, especially with Ruby on board over his ideal trip. I don't necessarily think he needs rain but if any does fall then he will be an even stronger fancy, so I am going to perhaps have a small cover bet on Karabak with a main win bet on Mikael.

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14:40 RSA CHASE



WHAT A FRIEND is the one to beat here and 11/2 looks a fairly solid each-way bet, despite the fact Ruby has chosen Cooldine who has 'arguably' the better form. Nicholls rates What A Friend as a potential Gold Cup horse one day so that is good enough for me and should he place we at least get a small return. There is not much room for backing anything else but the only stats-survivor is KILLYGLEN and although he is only 8th on the ratings, the Howard Johnson yard is bang in form at the moment and this one has now won 4 of his 7 starts and been 2nd in two of the others. He jumps fluently and I always go with a horse that gives me a bit of a buzz in this race and this year he is it. 14/1 looks generous.

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15:20 CHAMPION CHASE



MASTER MINDED is rated well clear of the rest and there is no value in backing him. It may be best to back him to beat another in the forecast and to back one in the market without the favourite. At a best-priced 11/2 in the market without the favourite, and having chased him home last time PETIT ROBIN looks the one to be on and for the forecast. I'll be hoping to sit back and enjoy the favourite romping home.

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16:00 CORAL CUP HURDLE



Most difficult race so far and probably of the whole week. The only stats-qualifier from the 7 or so I picked out that remains is Mirage Dore but is only rated down in 13th. To pick 1 or 2 others from those at the top of the ratings is trickier as they all have their plus and minus points so I'll take another look at some other stats from a different angle.
5/6 won last time out which is good for Lough Derg and Ninetieth Minute.
0/55 horses that have not one in their last 6 starts which is bad for Franchoek.
1/89 horses that finished 2nd,3rd or 4th LTO so bad for Franchoek again and Pierrot Lunaire.
1/44 horses aged 9 or over so bad for Lough Derg.

So the stats generally give mixed signals but one from the top-4 that does not fit into any negative columns but is a positive is NINETIETH MINUTE and he also has a handy light weight. Ireland have also got a good record of late in this and he looks well worth an e/w at 16/1. Franchoek has a couple of big negatives to overcome but he was 2nd to Celestial Halo in the Triumph last year. Lough Derg has had a hard season, has 11-12 and is a little older than ideal but he did at least win last time and is a game and battle-hardened warrior.  I would love to see him win so am loathe to leave him out of staking plans. Pierrot Lunaire is top-rated and on his 2nd to Binocular last year rates a threat. I will probably back all the top-4 to varying stakes as I literally can't rule any of them out but my slight preference would be for the Irish runner NINETIETH MINUTE and the top-rated PIERROT LUNAIRE who may still have scope for improvement.

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16:40 FRED WINTER HURDLE



Only 4 years of stats to go on for this race but SKI SUNDAY fitted a lot of them when I first performed the analysis and as he is 2nd on the ratings he has to go on the shortlist. The one that is top-rated is Alan King's SATICON who is also a generous price at 22/1. His hurdlers have to be respected. Those two will do or me in what looks a trappy juvenile hurdle. David Pipe's Mr Thriller was slightly disappointing last time at Sandown but Helium looks a big price at 33/1 and could be worth throwing in for a full cover exacta bet with the principals.

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17:15 FESTIVAL BUMPER

Well, I've already said I didn't take this seriously but I didn't expect the Willie Mullins runner CADSPEED that I picked out of a hat (sort of) to be top-rated. Having said that, my ratings don't do as well in bumpers but this surely has to be a sign ! I'll have a slightly bigger bet than usual at 18's and go to church on Sunday if it wins ;-)