Have taken a look at some Grand National stats to see if I can pick out some value at this stage as I think in recent years almost every horse shortens up by those money-grabbing bookies. In fact, given how many runners usually line up and the trickiness of negotiating the fences (and fallers) it has to be one of the worst value races 'on the day' I reckon. So...
Weight
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The rule is 'must carry less than 11-5' which was Red Rum's last winning weight but I would go a step further and say 'must carry 10-12 or less'.
15 of the last 16 winners carried 10-12 or less and 12 of the last 16 carried less than 10-9.
Only Hedgehunter has carried more than 11-0 to victory (11-1) in recent times since Corbiere back in '82. From the top-10 last year the highest weighted runner carried 11-3 and that was Slim Pickings in a distant 4th.
With Jonjo keen to run Exotic Dancer, I think the weights will pretty much stay as they are so that would be a negative for -:
Exotic Dancer
Madison Du Berlais
Snoopy Loopy
Star De Mohaison
Notre Pere
Nozic
Cloudy lane
Afistfullofdollars
War of Attrition
Chelsea Harbour
Imperial Commander
Snowy Morning
Knowhere
Roll Along
So I will give 1pt to everything else and 1.5pts for those carrying 10-9 or less.
Age
===
The last winning 7yo was 69 years ago and the last 6yo 95 years ago, they probably lack the stamina and experience required for such a test so I will strike those two ages. You can also rule out teenagers as they generally lack the speed required...this is bad news for -:
Eurotrek
Big Fella Thanks
Can't Buy Time
Piraya
Pomme Tiepy
Puntal
I will give all the others 1pt but as 11 of the last 14 winners were aged 8 or 9 I will give them 1.5pts.
Form
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9/16 finished in the top-4 last time out. Not 'that' strong a stat but I'll give a point anyway.
Offical Ratings
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The last 21 winners were rated in the range 136-157. Doesn't help narrow it down too much but rules out a few like...
Exotic Dancer
Madison Du Berlais
Star De Mohaison
Snoopy Loopy
Notre Peere
Nozic
Cloudy Lane
War of Attrition
Afistfullofdollars
and all those from Seymour Weld downwards.
Distance
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The last horse that didn't win over at least 3 miles to score in the National was Gay Trip back in 1970.
Class & Experience
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Each of the last 11 winners had won a race worth at least 17k and had at least 10 chase starts.
Breeding
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No French breds has won in over 100 years, largely because the national is not a race for early maturing types and most french breds aren't bred for stamina. I believe they have been responsible for over 25% of the runners in the last 7 years but none have won so thats a big negative for quite a few.
Trials
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In the past the Irish National, Hennessy Gold Cup and Welsh National have been decent guides. Comply or Die ran 2nd in the Tommy Whittle then followed up with a win in the Tote Eider at Newcastle. Irish runners have done very well in recent years, especially those that contest hurdle races to protect their handicap marks. Previous experience of the fences has been beneficial in the past.
Here are my list of qualifier
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BLACK APALACHI - Won the Boobyjo Chase last time, has won over these fences in the Becher Chase and looks a strong candidate. Can see him starting shorter than 12/1 on the day.
PREISTS LEAP - Did actually beat Black Apalachi last January and won the Thyestes Chase at the start of the year but was a no show yesterday at Naas. Would be doubtful he would line up after that poor effort and out to 50/1 in places.
KING JOHNS CASTLE - JP runner, a good 2nd last year to Comply Or Die and not seen since until prep'ing in a hurdle race yesterday. Clearly targetted at the race but not won a chase worth more than 7k or beyond 3 miles although it would be silly to crab him on that as he clearly stayed ok last year but he will be racing off an 11lb higher mark than last year. Best-priced 25/1
STATE OF PLAY - Hennessy winner of 2006, highly tried after. Best efforts since probably a 2nd in the 2007 Charlie Hall, 6th in Kauto Star's first Gold Cup and won the Charlie Hall last November. Stays well, acts on any ground and proven winner at Aintree in the past. Fits all the stats, never fallen over fences and the first on my list off a mark of 150, just 5b higher than his Hennessy winning mark and 28/1 looks worth a bet to me.
OFFSHORE ACCOUNT - GD1-winning (albeit fortunately) novice chaser back in 2007 but not seen since. 1/2 brother to The Listener, jumps and stays very well. Is one of the strongest profile runners after a decent 2nd on his reappearance over hurdles today and although he is a tad inexperienced, looks a solid jumper/stayer and 66/1 for me is great value.
DARKNESS - Fits a lot of the stats. Very useful novice chaser who won the Feltham in 2005 and 3rd in the Sun Alliance to Star De Mohaison the following year. Had a few problems since but good 3rd on his reappearance after long spell of the track, pulled up in unsuitably soft conditions in the Welsh National but won a 'veterans' race easily last time back on better ground. Would probably have a much better chance on top of the ground than soft so might wait till the day but 40/1 is tempting.
SOUTHERN VIC - A grade 1 winning novice chaser, has not really cut much ice in handicap chases but has been slipping down the weights and jumped much better than sometime at the weekend in first-time blinkers. Did seem to struggle with the fences somewhat when unseating in Black Apalachi's Becher chase last year though but can blinkers make a difference as they did with Comply or Die last year ? Chances would be enhanced by rain and Ruby Walsh on board and neither are likely so 25/1 a bit skinny.
KILBEGGAN BLADE - This one will definitely not have problems with the trip. In 2007 won a marathon chase at Sandown off a mark of 129 but did not really go on from this. However, slipped down the handicap to score London National in November off 137 at the same track. Has been kept in form and fit with a couple of outings since to protect his handicp mark and is clearly in good heart but will have to win off a mark of 141 and probably needs cut but could be an outsider worth keeping an eye on with his stamina assured, 33/1 a fair price.
BROOKLYN BROWNIE - Had some good form beating and running 2nd to Snoopy Loopy in the spring/summer. Not showed much until a 2nd at Aintree to Endless Power before scoring at Wetherby last time. Probably needs quite a few to drop out to get in the race but will get a light weight if he does get in, appears to have been improving slowly over the last few years and seems to need a test of stamina. A dark horse at 66/1.
CHARACTER BUILDING - 2nd in the National Hunt Chase a few years back, followed that up with a 3rd in Denman's Hennessy and won the Kim Muir last week so does possess a touch of class but clearly has his owen idea about things. May need a few to come out to get in the National and 16/1 seems a little short given he needs so much to fall right for him. Will not want the ground too soft.
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There are three I like at this stage, the first is OFFSHORE ACCOUNT at 66/1 which I think is a very decent each-way price after a promising prep back over hurdles as he has serious scope for improvement, stays and jumps well.
STATE OF PLAY at 28/1 is next on the list with Evan Williams admitting he is definitely on target for the race. He has a touch of class and looks like he is coming back. A solid jumper who should stay ok and any ground will be fine.
For the 3rd bet I will either go with KILBEGGAN BLADE if it's soft or DARKNESS if it's top of the ground so may wait till closer the time and when they have been confirmed as going for it.
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