Saturday Midlands National

Just about got enough energy to look at the Midlands National at Uttoxeter in the 3:10 on Saturday.  

- The last 5 winners have carried 10-9 or less. (The Dark Lord, Naunton Brook, Operation Houdini and Hold The Pin) 

- 5 of the last 8 winners came from the top-2 in the market (Badgerlaw and Kilcrea Asla) (Hold The Pin and Operation Houdini next best in market) 

- 4 won last time out, 2 placed (Only 8 of the 20 qualify)  

On my ratings I have Kilcrea Asla way ahead of Russian Trigger then Gidam Gidam and Appleaday just behind.  

First up, Tony Martin's Hold The Pin qualifies on a number of these but he has not had a winner all year and had a bad Cheltenham. He has won this race recently but I just can't have his runners. 

A better Irish runner and stats-horse might be Operation Houdini who ran Notro Pere close earlier in the season and has been fairly highly tried since but I prefer McCoy's mount KILCREA ASLA as he tops my ratings, Tom George is bang in form, he should relish the trip and is in form following a 7 length beating last time of subsequent Kim Muir runner-up Pretty Star. I've managed to wangle a 50 pound free bet at 8/1 with Ladbrokes so fingers crossed he can score.

NAUNTON BROOK's chances are not obvious but at 25/1 he is worth a small e/w bet off a light weight with Twiston-Davies hitting form in style over the festival with Imperial Commander and Tricky Trickster and he is notable for getting thorough stayers. He won this 2 years ago with Baron Windrush and a featherweight is going to be a real bonus in this race which should be a slog. Last January Naunton Brook ran 3rd to D'Argent in the GD3 Totesport over 3m 5f off a mark of 144 and even that wasn't enough of a test. This 4 miles in bottomless ground should be ideal off a much lower mark of 129 and he looks massive e/w value for a place.