I love it once the clocks have ‘sprung’ forward. Not only does it mean that I can have more of the morning/early avo as spare time but also gives more time to prepare for the afternoon action so I was able to enjoy some early spring sunshine and get the bike out for the first time in ages and still come back to finalise bets just before 2pm. I can live with a 3/4 hour day ;-)
A good day for the 50k challenge bets, despite a rookie error. I jumped in early on the first selection Desert Storm at 6/4 only to see the price collapse into evens, so it actually became a lay bet ! I’ve made it a rule not to back horses at evens or shorter because a larger stake is required and it cancels out any lay bets as part of the lay system. Fortunately, the 2nd horse in the 50k challenge won. There was also a bonus here, as bookies offer best-odds guaranteed I thought the 7/2 about Nearby represented decent value so calculated the stakes required to retrieve the 20.40 profit along with the 13.60 stake lost on Desert Storm. The price on Nearby drifted out to 6/1 so I actually managed to get a bigger return than expected and a 44 profit returned on the day taking the balance up to just over 1064.
Lessons to be learnt are two-fold. First of all, (1) not to rush in with a bet until close to the off if there is a chance on a selection hitting evens or shorter and (2) when there is no chance of it hitting that price, to take as best an early a price as possible so as to achieve a possible better return than required. I have split the 1k bank across 4 bookies, Hills, Stan James, Paddy Power and Bet365 so I can hopefully achieve the best possible price and all of them offer best-odds guaranteed. It was also re-assuring to see both Description and Classic Cut going on to win. I have a separate account with Boylesports and am using a slightly different strategy with backing my best bets with a stake of 5% of a small bank so managed a return on both those at least. Am also using this account for any ante-post bets, each-way bets etc.
| 50k Challenge | |||||||||||
| Date | Course | Time | Selection | Bookie | Target | Dec Odds | Stake | W/L | P/L | Bank | Run P&L |
| 28/03/2009 | Opening Balance | £1,000.00 | £64.66 | ||||||||
| 28/03/2009 | Kempton | 13:50 | Saint Arch | PP | £20.00 | 4.33 | £6.01 | W | £20.00 | £1,020.00 | |
| 28/03/2009 | Lingfield | 14:15 | Tanks For That | ||||||||
| 28/03/2009 | Uttoxeter | 16:55 | Rash Moment | ||||||||
| 28/03/2009 | Lingfield | 17:45 | Hudibras | ||||||||
| 28/03/2009 | NewAbb | 13:50 | Desert Storm | PP | £20.40 | 2.5 | £13.60 | L | -£13.60 | £1,006.40 | |
| 29/03/2009 | NewAb | 14:50 | Nearby | PP | £34.00 | 7 | £9.71 | W | £58.26 | £1,064.66 | |
| 29/03/2009 | Kelso | 15:15 | Description | ||||||||
| 29/03/2009 | Kelso | 15:50 | Classic Cut |
The lay bets did particularly well today with only 3 evens or odds-on shots winning out of a possible 8 for a 54pts profit on the day taking the bank up to just over 1077. I have also discovered today that some odds-on shots drop quite markedly in running so perhaps shorter prices than SP can be achieved when laying these runners, although I will need to research further using the Betfair historical data.
| Date | Course | Time | Selection | Odds | Stake | W/L | P/L | Bank |
| 29/03/2009 | NewAbb | 13:50 | Desert Storm | 2.00 | 15.00 | L | 15.00 | 1038.85 |
| 29/03/2009 | Kelso | 14:10 | Touch Of Irish | 1.90 | 15.00 | W | -13.50 | 1025.35 |
| 29/03/2009 | Doncaster | 14:30 | Makaamem | 0.50 | 15.00 | W | 7.50 | 1032.85 |
| 29/03/2009 | NewAbb | 14:50 | Kevkat | 1.85 | 15.00 | L | 15.00 | 1047.85 |
| 29/03/2009 | Leopardstown | 15:00 | Intense Focus | 2.00 | 15.00 | L | 15.00 | 1062.85 |
| 29/03/2009 | Downpatrick | 15:45 | Borrowaddy | 1.73 | 15.00 | L | 15.00 | 1077.85 |
| 29/03/2009 | NewAbb | 16:35 | Valley Ride | 2.00 | 15.00 | W | -15.00 | 1062.85 |
| 29/03/2009 | Kelso | 17:00 | Robbers Glen | 1.67 | 15.00 | L | 15.00 | 1077.85 |
| 54.00 |
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