Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Wednesday Best Bets - Full Analysis

Best Bets 
========= 


Warwick 2:50 West End Rocker 
Alan King and Choc Thornton didn't have a great Cheltenham but he is 
still getting winners and I think he should be able to take this 
novice chase after a decent win last time. Sound Accord looks the main 
danger but Charlie Mann is hit a decent patch of form and almost 
landed his first Cheltenham winner so Shining Gale could also go well 
but West End Rocker scored in some style last time and his early 
season close 2nd to Wichita Lineman looks pretty good now. 

Warwick 3:25 Enfant De Line 
Gold Award is a short priced favourite here but Enfant De Line looks 
the value for me, again from the Alan King stable. Clocked a much 
better speed figure than the favourite last time out and although the 
double-penalty is a worry, it's justified as he was a very easy winner 
last time. 

Chepstow 3:50 Craven 
OK, Craven completely shirked the issue last time, but he tends to 
idle in front and hopefully he will be produced on the scene a little 
later than last time. This does represent a slight drop in class so I 
think he could make the most of the weight he receives from the 
penalised favourite Rash Moment but he is not one to stake too much 
on. 

Lingfield 4:10 Sir Liam 
Probably just about my best value bet of the day, in possibly one of 
the worst handicaps ;-) He has run well the last two outings in a 
grade higher than today's and has been running much better for this 
yard, scoring well in a seller 3 outings ago. There may be a bit more 
to come and he can make the most of the weight he receives from main 
danger Zalkani. 

Kempton 8:20 Luberon 
Scintillo is likely to be a warm order here but Luberon represents the 
bang in-form Mark Johnston, goes well fresh which is the main thing 
but crucially he is a proven winner on the track/surface unlike 
Scintillo. 

I should really throw in an opinion of the headline race of the day, 
the Kentucky Derby trial (lol) at Kempton in the 7:20. I liked the 
Gosden runner at first but he tends to start slowly most flat season 
and the presence of blinkers is a concern. I also think the Johnston 
runner Maashed is too short because Spencer being Frank, he will 
probably not take advantage of the decent high draw and drop him in 
behind which is not the style to ride a Johnston horse IMO. 

No, the two I like are Akhenaten who scored well a few week back at 
Wolverhampton and had shown glimmers of ability in a couple of Group 
races last backend and the Johnston runner Mastery with Joe Fanning 
booked. Fanning knows how to keep a runner prominent and both these 
selections are well drawn in high stalls. At 16/1 and 12/1 
respectively they will do for me as each-way bets. 

Good Luck

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