Ante-Post advice (all at Ladbrokes)
2000 Guineas - Glass Harmonium each-way @ 33/1
2000 Guineas - Lord Shanakil each-way @ 33/1
Derby - Glass Harmonium each-way @ 33/1
Each-Way Double - 2000 Guineas Lord Shanakil / Epsom Derby - Glass Harmonium
Derby - Redwood (already on at 44 and 40 each way b4 today's win but still needs to be supplemented)
Ok, it's taking a bit of a risk and at the risk of looking stupid at but I think Glass Harmonium is a potential classic winner. He looks a typical unexposed Stoute runner and he has excellent record in the Craven with similar types, he has to have a chance of running a big race to enhance either his 2000 Guineas or Derby chances.
He won his maiden in some style last season BUT I think it could be significant that Glass Harmonium was one of only 6 colts supplemented for the Derby last week. That hints to me he has been showing something special at home. The fact he runs here and has also been entered in both the 2000 Guineas, Dante and Derby says to me that Stoute is maybe not sure whether he should go the Golan (2000G/Derby) or North Light (Dante/Derby) route and that the Craven is a fact-finding mission.
If he wins the Craven today in style then he could go the 2000 Guineas/Derby route as Golan did BUT if he only places here and doesn't show enough pace against this lot over the mile, he may go the Dante/Derby route. Both the aforementioned classic winners were also bred at the Ballymacoll Stud and I think the fact he runs here first time out is significant.
There is a 3rd scenario today in that that City Style, Alyarf or Pure Poetry does win, Delegator and Glass Harmonium flop and the race is written off as a trial. If that were the case I would expect odds on some others to shorten. If Delegator does win then his odds will shorten more but what about the horse who finished a couple of lengths ahead of it in the Dewhurst, will Lord Shanakil's odds shorten, because if anything he should be shorter now !
I really, really like Dewhurst runner-up, Karl Burke's Lord Shanakil. He ran 3rd in the Coventry Stakes, 2nd in the Vintage Stakes, 3rd in the Prix Morny, 5th in the Flying Childers after a slow start and meeting trouble. Most of those races he was either a bit one-paced or running on strongly at the death and he is pretty much a GP1 winner just not in name.
He then improved again to win the GP2 Mill Reef and was then just touched off in the GP1 Dewhurst by a nose. I backed him that day and was absolutely gutted but I couldn't believe his price of 12/1 as I felt this was down to his unfashionable 'classic' trainer Karl Burke and I couldn't get enough on...it was gutting to see him denied and then be ahead half a stride after the line but it filled me with confidence that he was the one for the first colt's classic next month.
I still can't believe he is 33/1 for the 2000 Guineas but I doubt he will be those odds after Saturday's Greenham.
Let's remember that even if Delegator wins today he was still a couple of lengths behind Lord Shanakil in the Dewhurst and the latter showed guts and hinted that he may be more suited to the step up to the mile than any of those behind that day.
In Raceform Update's trainer column Burke states that he has wintered very well indeed and is very forward in his coat. There is also the fact that he handles any ground although probably at his best on good fast ground. 33/1 is a huge price and if he were trained by Gosden or Stoute he would be single figures, I expect him to be after the Greenham on Saturday so now is the time to get involved and I've also had a bet to trade on Betfair.
The double is a speculative punt but a fiver each-way would payout almost 7k if they both won so it's just a bit of fun.
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