Aintree Festival – Friday Analysis

2:00 highstreetvouchers.com top novices’ hurdle

Trends – 8 of the last 10 finished in the first 4 last time. 7 of the last 10 were 5/1 or shorter. 6 of the last 10 were 5yo’s.
Summary – This is all about AMERICAN TRILOGY who is well clear on the ratings and can get Nicholls and Walsh of to a flyer. He won well at Cheltenham in the County Hurdle and this track should suit even better. Somersby is an interesting one for next season and can chase him home. Howard Johnson generally does well at this meeting so Red Moloney is respected, forget his run last time, conditions will be much more ideal for him here but I have American Trilogy as probably the best bet on the card IF he reproduces  his County Hurdle run.

AMERICAN TRILOGY – WIN @ 5/2

2:35 matalan.co.uk mildmay novices’ chase

Trends – 9 of the last 10 winners had won twice that season. 8 of the last 10 winners were in the top-3 in the betting. 7 of the last 10 winners raced at Cheltenham. All of the last 10 winners had raced 4, 5 or 6 times over fences.
Summary – HERECOMESTHETRUTH is top-rated but there is not much between the top-3 in the market although I really like Paul Nicholls chaser. Of the top-3, only Massini’s Maguire ran at Cheltenham but he only has one win this season and had a hard race in the Sun Alliance. SHINING GALE is not rated too far behind the selection so may be worth an each-way instead of taking the short odds about the favourite. He smashed the track record last time and he has been a revelation since a successful wind operation at the start of the season. At the available odds he rates an attractive each-way bet but Nicholls chaser should prove too tough.

HERECOMESTHETRUTH – WIN @ 9/4
SHINING GALE – EACH WAY @ 8/1

3:10 john smith’s melling chase

Trends –8 of the last 10 finished in the first 3 last time. 8 of the last 10 came from the top-2 in the market. 9 of the last 10 were priced at 5/1 or less. 9 of the last 10 ran at the Cheltenham festival. 3 dual winners in the last 10 years.
Summary – Everything about the stats and the ratings tells me that Voy Por Ustedes is going to take all the beating and I was almost going to go with him but sometimes I just have to go with my gut feeling and that tells me that this track should be right up NACARAT’S street. He really impressed me when I tipped him up for the Racing Post chase and I just feel he could get away from the favourite round here. If you throw in the McCoy factor, the price and the fact that VPU didn’t jump well last time but still had a hard race, I think it’s the right play. Nacarat needs to improve but he has been doing so and might not have stopped yet. This is one race where I think I may be on the wrong one so I’ll play small stakes but I have to go with what I think is the value.

NACARAT – WIN @ 7/2

3:45 john smith’s topham chase

Trends – 6 of the last 10 winners finished first or 2nd last time. 9 of the last 10 had run within the last 5 weeks. 7 of the last 10 were aged 8 or 9.
Summary – NEW LITTLE BRIC tops the ratings and if the blinkers have the same effect as last time he can run a huge race. Stablemate GWANAKO is the preferred mount of Ruby Walsh so that has to be respected and he is worth a cover bet for the bet on New Little Bric.

NEW LITTLE BRIC – EACH WAY @ 14/1
GWANAKO – WIN COVER BET @ 8/1

4:20 citroen sefton novices’ hurdle

Trends – 9 of the last 10 winners finished in the first 4 LTO. 9 of the last 10 winners has won at least once in their last 3 runs. All of the last 10 winners had won at least twice that season. All of the last 10 winners had run at least 4 times that season.
Summary – KARABAK’S 2nd to Mikael D’Haguenet in the Ballymore is arguably better form than the win of Weapon’s Amnesty in the Albert Bartlett from the 2nd Pride of Dulcote. The fact he got so close was a great effort and this flat track should be ideal. 9/4 is a little skinnier than ideal but I think he will take all the beating. Outsiders have done well in this though and one that I saw last time which impressed me was Nicky Richard's’ Merrydown. He has to show a lot of improvement but one I prefer at bigger odds for a small each-way is Ogee. He was very impressive at Uttoxeter and at a best-priced 33/1 represents each-way value with his stable in good form right now.

KARABAK – WIN @ 9/4

4:55 totepool handicap hurdle

Trends – 9 of the last 10 winners were aged 6 to 8. All of the last 10 winners had run at least 4 times that season. 8 of the last 10 winners ran in March. 8 of the last 10 winners had an official rating between 126 and 134.
Summary – Two horses stand out on the stats, mainly because of the narrow winning official ratings. CAPTAIN AMERICO had entries in the Graded events so could be in here off a very lenient mark, he also fits the stats. I’ll also throw in top-rated ANDYTOWN for a small cover bet on the two each-way’s but he probably has it to do from a 15lb higher mark but he was very impressive at Cheltenham and like this ground. Gunner Jack is an outsider who fits the stats and could make the frame, 28/1 looks big.

CAPTAIN AMERICO – EACH WAY @ 9/1
ANDYTOWN – WIN COVER @ 11/1

5:30 john smith’s mares’ bumper
 
Summary – No real trends for this race but the bang in-form Alan King has a good recent record in this so I’ll stick with top-rated POLLY POTTER and have a bet each-way on her at 10/1. However, in Raceform Update Charlie Mann tipped up EASTERN PARAMOUR as his best bet of the whole meeting and the fact she is 2nd on my ratings makes her a value each-way, so I’ll also throw that one in the mix at 16/1 but these types of races are not ones to get too carried away in.

HOLLY POTTER – EACH WAY @ 10/1
EASTERN PARAMOUR – EACH WAY @ 16/1

Friday 50k Challenge Bets –:

Aint 2:00 AMERICAN TRILOGY
Aint 2:35 HERECOMESTHETRUTH
Aint 4:20 KARABAK
Wolv 6:50 STONECRABSTOMORROW
Wolv 8:20 DARK RANGER

Thursday Review

A great day yesterday, albeit tinged with sadness at the loss of Exotic Dancer. This horse was very unlucky to be around at the same time as Kauto Star and Denman otherwise he could have been a dual Gold Cup winner. He put his heart into his races though and sadly it was too much for him. He will be missed.
Was great to see Big Bucks win, despite denying the win portion of our Mighty Man bet. Walkon won very easily and will be a very interesting taking on his elders next year. Madison De Berlais was slightly fortunate that Denman fell but it’s all about the jumping and a nice 16/1 wager was landed while Trust Fund won very well in the Fox Hunters. As at Cheltenham, I had no luck in the handicaps and I’ll have to re-evaluate my approach to these, although Oh Crick was 2nd on the ratings and I should really have gone with him as well as Moon Over Miami but it’s easy in hindsight.

As far as the 50k challenge goes, I hit the target with the first selection Walkon which was just as well as the other selections failed to fire which I can only put down to the competitiveness of the racing and bad selecting on my part. I will re-calculate at the weekend as to the best way to proceed with this strategy as it doesn’t suffer long losing streaks too well. I need to tighten things up a bit and possibly spread the 50k challenge bets over 2 days (or leave alone) if I feel it’s too trappy. Anyway, the bank is up to just shy of 1130 so a 12% return in just 5 days is ok by me.

50k Challenge
Date	Course	Time	Selection	Bookie	Target	Dec Odds	Stake	W/L	P/L	Bank
02/04/2009	Aintree	14:35	Walkon	B365	£22.15	3.5	£8.86	W	£22.15	£1,129.83
02/04/2009	Taunton	15:30	Warpath							£1,129.83
02/04/2009	Aintree	16:55	Chapoturgeon							£1,129.83
02/04/2009	Kempton	18:25	Fremen							£1,129.83

The lay bets did ok, about half won and half lost which is always a good thing given the prices I am laying at and a small profit on the day was achieved, especially as one of the losers I managed to lay at 1/20 ! I was out in the evening and forgot about the odds-on shot in the 8:50 at Kempton. Fortunately, it won so that saved me a little bit and a profit of just over 15pts on the day was achieved.

LayBets
Date	Course	Time	Selection	Odds	Stake	W/L	P/L	Bank
02/04/2009	Aintree	14:00	Big Bucks	1.80	14.33	W	-11.46	1125.78
02/04/2009	Taunton	14:20	Gold Gun	1.80	13.30	L	13.30	1139.08
02/04/2009	Taunton	14:55	Bergo	1.05	14.81	W	-0.74	1138.34
02/04/2009	Aintree	15:10	Denman	2.00	14.30	L	14.30	1152.64
02/04/2009	Leicester	15:20	Sayif	1.63	14.08	W	-8.87	1143.77
02/04/2009	Taunton	16:05	Apache Dawn	1.91	14.71	L	14.71	1158.48
02/04/2009	Taunton	17:15	Prairie Spirit	1.50	14.68	W	-7.34	1151.14