Aintree Festival – Thursday Analysis

I feel the combination of the trends and my own ratings was a fairly successful one at Cheltenham so I’m going to continue that method this week for Aintree. I recommend getting on early with a bookie that offers best price-guaranteed.

2:00 john smith’s liverpool hurdle



Trends - Not too many trends to go on for this as it’s only been in the go since 2004 but all the winners had previously placed at the Aintree festival before and all 5 winners were in the top-3 in the market. This narrows it down to Big Bucks, Mighty Man and Fair Along.
Summary - The top-3 in the market have placed at the festival before, Big Bucks won the mildmay novice chase last season, MIGHTY MAN won this race in 2006 and 2007 while Fair Along was 2nd in a novice chase 2 years ago. As you can see from my ratings, Big Buck’s is clear rated by a full 10pts and should take all the beating, unfortunately there is no 13/2 for us to get stuck into this time and he is likely to be un-backable at odds-on. Fair Along may benefit from the first time tongue-tie but he was poor in the World Hurdle and finished very tired. A better option may be to have a small each-way on Mighty Man at 5/1 who is 8lb better off with Big Buck’s and back at his favourite track. He put in a great effort finishing 5th in the World Hurdle after a long absence, if he places we get our money back and he probably stands the best chance of shocking the favourite.

MIGHTY MAN – EACH WAY  @ 5/1
 
2:35 matalan anniversary 4-y-o novice hurdle

 
Trends - The key trend for me in this race is that 9 of the last 10 winners ran at the Cheltenham festival which is not a good omen for Hebridean followers. Clearly the competitive nature of the racing there prepares the younger horses well for this race, as in theory they should be able to recover from exertions quicker than their elders. This is backed up by the stat that 43 runners have lined up following a break of 29 days or more with only one of them winning, so a recent run seems beneficial. We can also rule out a bit of chaff from the field with the stat that 9 of the last 10 winners had a win within their last 3 outings. French breds have won 5 of the last 10.
Summary – The horse that is top-rated by 8pts and also fits all the stats is WALKON who should take the beating here after his narrow defeat in the Triumph. Hebridean has been off the track longer than ideal and has something to find form-wise, but this speedy track should suit him. He would be a stats-buster though so the danger is likely to come from Starluck who faded up the hill at Cheltenham and may find Aintree more to his liking but he still has something to find with the selection and I think their prices should be the other way round.

WALKON – WIN @ 11/4
 
3:10 totesport bowl

 
Trends – 9 of the last 9 winners ran last time at Cheltenham. Apart from that there are not too many clear trends for this race. Denman is top-rated but not by much from Exotic Dancer although he should prove fresher and tough to beat. This looks a race to watch ideally but the Pipe yard have won 3 of the last 5 renewals of this event, including with Our Vic last time. I can’t have him on his run last time but MADISON DU BERLAIS is only rated 1pt behind him in 4th on my ratings. He may just not like Cheltenham and we saw what he did to Denman on his previous outing on a flat track at Kempton. He didn’t have as hard a race as either of the top-2 on the ratings in the Gold Cup so I am going to recommend a small each-way on Madison Du Berlais for an interest but I expect Denman to prove too strong.

MADISON DU BERLAIS – EACH WAY @ 16/1

3:45 john smith’s fox hunters’ chase



Trends – The market is the best guide to this race. 9 of the last 10 winners came from the first three in the market and all the last 10 winners were priced at 8/1 or shorter. 9 of the last 10 winners had won at least one of their last 2 starts while 7 finished in the first 3 last time.
Summary – Stats-wise it rests between Agus A Vic and TRUST FUND withthe latter being top-rated and clear on my ratings clearly worth a decent each-way bet at 8/1.

TRUST FUND – EACH WAY @ 8/1

4:20 john smiths’ red rum handicap chase

 
Trends – 9 of the last 10 winners were priced at 12/1 or shorter. All of the last 10 winners were aged between 7 and 9.
Summary – The age and price stat look pretty strong and eliminating the 6 and 10yo’s takes out those ranked 2nd to 5th on the ratings so that should leave the way clear for MOON OVER MIAMI to get a deserved success following on from his close 2nd in the Grand Annual and he can reverse form with Oh Crick. Stan actually bucked a couple of trends when winning last year and such is the form of Hobbs and Johnson at the moment that I will also throw an e/w bet on LORD HENRY in there who looks overpriced at 22/1.

MOON OVER MIAMI – EACH WAY @ 10/1
LORD HENRY – EACH WAY @ 22/1

4:55 john smiths’ manifesto novices chase



Summary – A new race so no trends to go on. I will rely on the ratings and stick with CHAPOTURGEON who was visually impressive in the Jewson and could be even better around here. He could prove tough to peg back but Planet of Sound does rate the main danger.

CHAPOTURGEON – WIN @ 2/1

5:30 silver cross handicap hurdle



Trends – Irish-bred runners have won 9 of the last 10 renewals. 8 of the last 10 winners were double-figure odds. 6 of the last 10 winners finished in the top-4 LTO.
Summary – I’m going to go for 3 in this race as it looks that wide open. The first in there is HERNANDO ROYAL who beat subsequent impressive winner Hills Of Aran last time and is top-rated. The second in there is PRINCE TAIME who represents the top-connections of Hobbs and Johnson. He won well last time and earlier showed  he can handle the big hurly burly of races like this when 3rd in the Imperial Cup. However, neither of these are Irish bred so I’m putting in AURORAS ENCORE as well who let us down a bit at Cheltenham but scored well last time and the track should suit.

HERNANDO ROYAL – EACH WAY
PRINCE TAIME – EACH WAY
AURORAS ENCORE – EACH WAY

Thursday 50k Challenge bets..

Aint 235 Walkon
Taun 330 Warpath
Aint 455 Chapoturgeon
Kemp 625 Fremen

Wednesday Review

An excellent day on Wednesday, especially with the odds-on lays with only one odds-on shot winning from the 6 on the day and a profit of almost 65pts on the day.

LayBets
Date	Course	Time	Selection	Odds	Stake	W/L	P/L	Bank
01/04/2009	Exeter	14:10	Raider Of The East	1.83	14.39	L	14.39	1086.85
01/04/2009	Lingfield	14:30	Shabib	1.40	14.84	L	14.84	1101.69
01/04/2009	Lingfield	15:00	Don Pele	1.73	15.16	L	15.16	1116.85
01/04/2009	Exeter	15:10	Cresswell Willow	1.63	13.84	L	13.84	1130.69
01/04/2009	Kempton	18:50	Ravi River	1.67	14.80	L	14.80	1145.49
01/04/2009	Kempton	19:20	Respite	1.57	14.47	W	-8.25	1137.25

The 50k Challenge target was hit in the 2nd race when Mr Willis scored in the 4:30 at Lingfield and the bank stands at a healthy £1107.

50k Challenge
Date	Course	Time	Selection	Bookie	Target	Dec Odds	Stake	W/L	P/L	Bank
01/04/2009	Lingfield	16:00	Melt	PP	£21.72	3	£10.86	L	-£10.86	£1,075.09
01/04/2009	Lingfield	16:30	Mr Willis	SJ	£32.58	3	£16.29	W	£32.58	£1,107.67
01/04/2009	Lingfield	17:00	Waterloo Dock
01/04/2009	Kempton	19:50	Cross The Line
01/04/2009	Kempton	20:50	Mexican Pete