Friday Bets/Ratings - Time to collect on Father

Thursday Review

A great day yesterday with the headline bet Tax Free winning at 8/1 and available at 11's on Betfair at the off. Also some other excellent wins including Tazeez etc and some excellent places as well including Hora 16/1, Firebet 20/1 and Kayf Aramis 20/1 who went so close at Cheltenham.

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Glass Harmonium was a touch disappointing in the Craven but I should have realised he was being given a prep for the Dante en-route to the Derby. It was little more than a schooling session for him. He will improve for that, the trip was probably insufficient and he was not punished at all. It was a satisfactory work-out, let's leave it at that and pay note to the Racing Post comments -

"Glass Harmonium, on the other hand, is from a stoutish family and probably wants further. As he´s by Verglas he possibly wants softer too, but the mere fact that Sir Michael Stoute ran him here suggests he is well regarded, so considerable improvement is on the cards."

The winner was entitled to win the Craven but I can't have him for the Guineas and the price cut to 3/1 is an over-reaction. To me it only enhanced the chances of our 33/1 outsider Lord Shanakil who reappears in the Greenham on Saturday. As they said in the Racing Post comments -

 "While there is little doubt Delegator is a classy colt, and one with a turn of foot that could be even more potent if unleashed later, the form needs keeping in perspective and as it stands it would not match the level required to win the Guineas"

I also think that in recent years some trial winners are overhyped and it's forgotten that O'Brien produces the goods on the day time and time again. I would still favour Mastercraftsman over him but may change my mind after 'The Lord' hopefully demolishes his Greenham rivals at Newbury on Saturday because to me is he is close to a GP1 winning juvenile as you can get without actually having the official title ;-)

Friday's Action

Friday sees the start of the 2-day Ayr Scottish National meeting but the card looks a shocker. I'm going to concentrate on Newbury. Odds listed are best Betfair odds when I typed the previews up for each race, unless stated otherwise.

Shortlisted runners, and another Derby longshot to add to the portfolio ;-)

Newbury 2:10 CLOUDY START win @ 5.1 (FELDAY e/w @ 17.5)
Newbury 2:40 OLDJOESAID e/w @ 5 (Bet365)  (FULLANDBY e/w @ 13 (Bet365))
Newbury 3:15 FATHER TIME win @ 5 (Paddy Power)
Thirsk 3:05 JEBEL TARA e/w @ 9.8
Cheltenham 5:35 KING'S FOREST @ 5.1
Ayr 4:00 MISTER MCGOLDRICK e/w @ 13

Derby - FATHER TIME e/w @ 33/1 and at 44 on Betfair

Newbury

I am ignoring the maidens, apart from with a view to the future and perhaps if I spot a move for any of the top-3 in the market for the likes of a Gosden, Hills, Stoute or Hannon runners.

2:10 CLOUDY START win @ 5.1 - FELDAY e/w @ 17.5
A lot of Cecil's runners are running placed suggesting they are perhaps needing their first outing of the season but he did win this race in 2007 with Phoenix Tower so top-rated Cloudy Start is very interesting if he can pick up where he left off last season when trotting up at Redcar on his final start after running subsequent Royal Lodge winner Jukebox Jury. If anything looks like being better than a handicapper in the race it could be him so he is well worth an each-way bet as he should go close if his low draw is not a hindrance. Anything floating around 9/2 first thing should be snapped up as I think he will start shorter.

C&D winner Felday has no such worries being drawn in stall 13, he was found out over a mile last time out last season but had earlier ran ok in Donativum's Tatts Million race with yesterday's runner-up Imposing behind him. His win here came with a bit of cut so with optimum conditions he rates a solid looking each way bet if he his fit enough. Hughie Morrison can produce them first time out so should be ok.

3rd on the ratings Saucy Brown ran on strongly to take 5th over an inadequate 5f at Royal Ascot last season and then was far from disgraced over 5/6f GP2 races. He has a lot of weight but it seems Ryan Moore may have chosen him of the stables 3 runners.However,  he has not run as if the step up to 7f is necessarily what he needs and he could be stuck between a rock and a hard place this season but watch the market as any support would be significant.

Stablemate Daddy's Gift would be a bigger threat to the selection. She is a tough sort but has struggled each time at 7f and may prefer a faster surface.

One that could be a danger is Amanda Perret's Truism who is 6lb better off with Noverre To Go on earlier running, is potentially well handicapped and has a very decent looking draw. Watch the market for moves on this one and put it down as a sub or saver.

2:40 OLDJOESAID e/w @ 5 (Bet365) - FULLANDBY e/w @ 13 (Bet365)
It would be an understatement to say Henry Candy has a knack with sprinters but he does and that was re-affirmed with the impressive win of  Dark Mischief this week in a tough looking sprint. It's amazing that Oldjoesaid has been produced to defend his crown he won in this race last season off the exact same mark of 102 but that is largely because he raced over 6f or unsuitable ground. This 5f, first time out, off the same mark, with a bit of cut and the stable in form says to me lump on. If only it was always that easy but he should take the beating and if you can get 5/1 or better make it an each-way lump as I can see him going off shorter but I'm taking the 4/1 with Bet365 best-price guaranteed as I can see him being backed.

Main danger could be Fullandby who narrowly beat him a head under similar conditions to today's at Beverley in September and was a close 3rd in this race last year. He could be worth a small each-way with Ryan Moore a potentially significant booking.

3:15 FATHER TIME win @ 5 (Paddy Power) - FATHER TIME e/w @ 44 (Betfair - Epsom Derby)
Four Winds ran 3rd to Delegator in his maiden and was 'unlucky' in his GP3 next time, getting no sort of a run after being spooked in the paddock and he is well regarded at home but most of these are to be honest. Also, how fit are any of these ? It's guess work unless the paddock and betting provides any clues. He can improve for the step up in trip though and looks the one to beat on form but I'm not convinced the form of the Group 3 or indeed of his maiden behind Delegator was that strong. Also...can 'Frank' Spencer avoid getting short of room in a 7-runner race...not a gimme ;-)

Palvacini ran 2nd in the same Delegator maiden and as a relation to Oath is respected but Dunlop is struggling as a trainer in recent years although if he is going to bounce back anywhere it will be Newbury but like I said, I don't rate the Delegator form and think it's been overcooked.

Father Time, a half brother to Passage Of Time and form aside for one moment is the one to be on. Cecil chose this race for the intro of '99 Derby winner Oath, ok he ran 2nd but he also won this race with Oaks winner Light Shift and won it with Uneffer last year. Safe to say that whatever he runs here, he likes as a potential classic winner so we should also have a small piece of the 33/1 each way and 44 for him on Betfair for the Derby in the hope we can trade out a bit at shorter after the race and have a 'free' bet running. His form from his maiden run is also holding up extremely well and has produced an abundance of winners already, always a good sign.

The main danger I feel though is Noseda's Your Old Pal. This one was seriously impressive in his maiden win last term in a very fast time and could be anything. By Rock of Gibralter out of a Rainbow Quest mare, he is bred to be a star but that win did come on very soft ground so that and Cecil's record in this race as well as the better form of his maiden win just swings it for me for Father Time and it would be great to see the Maestro with a genuine Derby contender again.

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Ayr

2:20 Percutant @ 3.1
Trappy race with Description a danger along with Dancing Dik who could be well handicapped but Percutant has been impressive so far and may not have stopped improving yet.

2:50 Even Flo @ 3.2
Raysrock probably needs more cut whole Bougoure is out of sorts so Even Flo is probably the likeliest winner.

3:25 Leac An Scail @ 6.2
Right, I'm taking on Distiller if he is odds-on but it's not a race to be confident out. Top-rated Leac An Scail could return to form under optimum conditions

4:00 MISTER MCGOLDRICK e/w @ 13
Could this be Mister McGoldrick's swansong at the track where he kickstarted his novice chase career 5 years ago ? I have a feeling he will run a big race and although a little rain wouldn't hurt this is his best chance of winning a chase for some time.

Medicinal for Nicholls is a danger and worth a cover bet. He hit the first really hard last time and was fortunate to get back into but made up ground before tiring to take 4th. Prior to that he had some decent form in the book so is taken to score here.

4:35 Magical Legend @ 7.4
Ran a game race to follow up her previous win but I've not looked at this race in much detail at all.

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Thirsk

At Thirsk I like the look of JEBEL TARA e/w @ 9.8 in first-time blinkers in the 3:05 but in the same race there is a 2nd top-rated runner having his first run after switching stables which I always think is a positive and it's Summer Dancer @ 21 so watch that in the market.

The 4:15 race is the most interesting though. The most significant stat at Thirsk is that 67% of all winner of 10-runner+ 5f handicaps since 2005 have come from the top-third of the draw !  The most biased draw in the country according to the ATR website so I might go for a full-cover forecast/tricast with numbers 7,8,9 & 10 who are strangely drawn in those top-4 stalls. Unfortunately, a computer glitch means I don't have the ratings for this one race which is typical but I would imagine Steelcut @ 3 would be high up on the list as would Bo McGinty.

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Cheltenham

Evening meeting at Cheltenham ? Well, I guess they have to try to get the kids in with some dodgy tribute band or something but from what I have seen it usually gets in 40-somethings going through a midlife crisis...I'll find out next month at Ayr when I attend an 'Abba' night...or rather, leave before they come on, hopefully I will not have my own 'Waterloo'. Enough waffle...

5:35 KING'S FOREST @ 5.1
Continuing with my theme of laying odds-on shots in-running at 20% less than their starting SP, I will be taking on Bensalem who had a tough race at Cheltenham in January and then had a dirty scope which caused him to miss the festival. I don't like taking short-odds about one that has not at least shown he is fully recovered, especially odds-on but i have to say he should take the beating.

However, King's Forest is more than useful and will make a decent chaser next year but he can give the favourite something to think about here. He improved markedly for the step up in trip last time, is lighter raced and less exposed than the favourite and the better value of the two.

6:10 Gauvain @ 3
Again, a low risk lay of Chapoturgeon is the order of the day here. He should win on all known form but he does make the odd howler, fell first time out and last time at Aintree.

I am opposing him with Gauvain who is his only challenger, he jumped superbly last time. It was a muddling race so even more amazing was the fact he broke the track record at Plumpton in the process. Lets hope the good Gauvain turns up and the bad Chapoturgeon does and not the other way round, it's a coin-flip so the 3/1 is obv better than the 1/3 ;-)

6:45 Blazing Bailey @ 4.33
If ever there was a race to leave alone this is it but I'll have a stab. Hills of Aran receives 8lb from most of these and although he goes well when reappearing quickly in general, it was a Grade 2 and Grade 1 run at Aintree and he may have had enough for the season. I can see him teeing this up for a staying type, something like...

Blazing Bailey is going chasing next term and could be a good one there but he has one staying hurdle left in him and this could be it as the race is likely to be teed up for him but a race for pennies really.

7:20 D'Argent @ 9.6
Interesting that between Stolen Moments and D'Argent Choc Thornton has chosen the latter. He has been kept relatively lightly raced this term compared to previous years and with a bit of juice underfoot over a course he won over when hurdling, he rates an e/w bet. My gut tells me Zacharova will bounce back from that poor run last time to win her stablemates race while Tank Top's earlier form with Tricky Trickster in December looks good. Trappy.

7:50 Leamington Lad @ 14.5
I think I would be making my way to the stage before this race, man it's hard. The top-rated Overstrand is hard to win with now but the race should be run to suit but Twiston-Davies is in  form and Leamington Lad won here in December and was not disgraced at the festival so he will do with McCoy on Simply Blue the big danger and possibly worth a small cover bet.

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Sedgefield & Kempton

I have not really looked at either card in detail and if I get a chance will post an update in the afternoon. At Sedgefield in the 6:25 Lucky Nellerie @ 5.4 is interesting at what could be an e/w price as is Ormus @ 10.5 in the 7:30 while trainer-switched Black Mogul @ 9.4 in the 8:00 race should also be watched for money.

As far as Kempton goes, I have one horse that I think will run a very big race at hopefully double-figure odds but I will post it later as I need to check a few things before putting it up. I will aim to post it around 3pm to the blog and via email.