A great day yesterday and thanks for all your kind words, as well as some top-rated winners there were also a 50/1 and 33/1 places in Tyrell Wood's race. I've also stuck a Paypal donation link on the blog so if any of you do take down a big score and are feeling particularly generous then all donations (no matter how small) would be appreciated as the blog/updates do take a lot of time and it would be nice to get something back.
I have decided to trim down the rated races for Easter Monday and will be staying away from maidens, sellers, national hunt flat races and the like. This still leaves just over 30+ races to pick from and I will start with the big one of the day and what could be some cracking races at Fairyhouse.
Redc 2:35 RARE COINCIDENCE
Fairy 3:10 AITMATOV
Fairy 3:55 GARDE CHAMPETRE
Chep 4:10 FORTY FIVE
Plum 4:50 GO HARVEY GO
Chep 4:45 BALLYVADEN
Fairy 5:05 FANTOCHE
Fairy 5:40 STEWARTS HOUSE
Fairyhouse 3:55 GARDE CHAMPETRE
Garde Champetre won very well at Cheltenham in the Cross-X chase off a mark of 150 and races here off a 9lb lower mark so that is one plus straight away. The 2nd plus is that he goes very well on top of the ground. The 3rd plus is that Nina Carberry is unbeaten in the horses 5 starts over the park obstacles at Punchestown and Cheltenham. The 4th plus is her family has a lot of history in this race. Her dad won the race twice as a jockey back in the 70's and trained Bobbyjo while her two brothers have won the race in the past. It has been 2 years since Garde Champetre jumped a regulation fence but after an excellent hurdling and novice chase campaign he was not really given the chance to show what he could do before taking on the specialist Cross-X fences. His stamina is assured, he could be well in and at a best-priced 14/1 he rates very decent each-way value I feel.
For dangers, Notro Pere is unlikely to line up but would be a danger if the trainer decides to take a risk despite the ground. Wichita Lineman is next best but if the weights do go up in the abscence of Notre Pere he will have to lump 11-12 and I just can't see him being up to that and worth noting the last 5 top-weights in this race have all pulled up. A bigger danger could be the classy Casey Jones who had previously beaten Trafford Lad and Emma Jane and was eased in the Sun Alliance only to finish line a train to almost get 4th, albeit a distance behind the winner Cooldine. Emma Jane and Pomme Tiepy come into the mix with the latter being preferred as the mount of stable jock Ruby Walsh.
Fairyhouse 3:10 AITMATOV
AITMATOV was outstayed in heavy ground over this trip last time behind Catch Me but did win the Hatton Grace Hurdle here 2 years ago on heavy ground so I don't necessarily think it was either the trip or ground, I just don't think he likes Navan as he has is only 1/7 at that track whereas he is 2/4 at Fairyhouse so I will give him a chance and quotes of 8/1 could reward each-way money. Meade/Carberry teamed up well with Aran Concerto on Sunday so confidence will be high.
I have the tissue favourite Powerstation a close 2nd on the ratings but I can't have him over this 2 1/2 miles on good ground as I feel he needs 3 miles+. He has now been outpaced in a 3 Cheltenham events, albeit 2 of them being the Coral Cup and World Hurdle but he will seriously struggle to lie up with the others I feel. I think Nicanor is a likelier danger. He has shaken off the tag of only horse to beat Denman (in the Sun Alliance hurdle 3 years ago). After an abortive first run in 2 years, over fences, he arguably has his optimum conditions but you are taking a chance he is the same horse he was before his injury.
Fairyhouse 5:05 FANTOCHE
Fantoche started off his chasing career ok last season, managed a win but was thrown in at a couple of Graded events which proved beyond him as he looks a handicapper. He was only beaten less than a length in a similar event last time at Leopardstown when he had his first run with Barry on board, and they could go one better here. He clearly likes top of the ground, Barry Geraghty is riding supremely at the moment and also worth noting when he has the leg up on a Jessica Harrington runner. Quotes of 12 on Betfair look quite big and he is another worth an each-way bet on Monday.
Fairyhouse 5:40 STEWARTS HOUSE
The presence of Lochan Lacha and Ruby Walsh mean we get a decent price on the 2nd on my ratings Stewarts House. He won very well last time and runs off a mark of 114 here which isn't too bad considering he was rated 123 over hurdles so there may be more to come and at 5/1+ he could be a low risk each-way bet. Lochan Lacha didn't jump too well last time and a much bigger danger could come from the horse Ruby has deserted after scoring on him last time, Monte Cinto. That one could be worth a small each-way cover on the selection. Dulgodti Bob is weighted to reverse their running but it's only a 4lb pull and I think he will confirm their placings.
Tony Martin has started firing in the winners and Ruby Walsh is an eye-catching booking for Psycho in the 2:40, I will have a small bet but it's not really my kind of price and I don't like the overall shape of the race much.
Elsewhere in Ireland, a mixed, early-season card at Cork run on soft/heavy ground is one to swerve especially the big handicaps with apprentice jocks but I've put the ratings in anyway. The only thing I would say is to pay attention to young Wayne Lordan. He was a decent apprentice and as with a lot of these jocks struggled once he lost his claim but he is getting some decent rides for the likes of Tommy Stack and David Wachman and had a couple of winners yesterday. He could be a jockey to watch this season.
Chepstow 4:10 FORTY FIVE
Heading back across the pond and I've been waiting for Forty Five since he won with consummate ease last time under Tony McCoy. If McCoy was not riding in Ireland today I feel he would be a lot shorter than the 7/2 early quote on Betfair. This is partly the reason but also the presence of a Paul Nicholls French-purchase and a 19lb rise in the weights could be a bit to do with it, but he looked pretty special last time and the price is right for me for a win bet as Nicholls horse has a lot to prove and also worth pointing out, no Ruby Walsh ;-) C&D winner Mango Catcher is in good heart, is top-rated and the main challenger if Nicholls horse fails to fire.
Chepstow 4:45 BALLYVADEN
An 18-runner handicap doesn't look the wisest betting proposition but a lot of these are out of sorts or unreliable. Not so Ballyvaden who is seeking the hat-trick after a couple of wins at Leicester. Not only that but her trainer Mrs Caroline Keevil is red-hot at the moment with two winners in Deep Pockets and Dizzy Future on Sunday. Her record with the latter proves she knows what it takes to keep a horse in-form and at 6/1+ we can lump on each way in the knowledge that it will more than likely not be out of the first-4 with a strong chance of the win.
Plumpton 4:50 GO HARVEY GO
Go Harvey Go ran well last time when stepped up in trip but his stamina gave way in the bottomless ground at Towcester which is stamina sapping at the best of times. Back over this sharper track on better ground he can be seen to much better effect and could provide an each-way value alternative to the favourite. Cross Kennon won 3 outings ago off a mark of 72 but failed to win 4 days later carrying a 7lb penalty. He then ran 4 days ago off a mark of 92 and scored comfortably. He has another 7lb penalty today but I have a feeling this race is tougher than last time, that he may need a bit more time between his races and so he could be vulnerable having his 4th race in the space of just over a month.
The rest of the Plumpton card loooks decidedly moderate and trappy but keep an eye out for Gary Moore runners there. He generally does well here with fancied hurdles runners so keep an eye on any support for Maxwil or Maclean in the 2:30 and 3:05 races respectively.
Fakenham looks trappy but the best bet there might be Lord Alfred who will come on for what was virtually his first run in over a year and trip and ground should suit but it's hard to be confident about anything on the card.
Huntingdon looks even worse and I won't even bother rating their races.
Redcar 2:35 RARE COINCIDENCE
In the 2:35 race Rare Coincidence reappears quickly with a 6lb penalty and at around 11/2 could be worth a decent each-way bet if Callan can poach a lead early in the straight again, could prove tough to peg back in this form. This is probably the only one I can pick out from the flat on Monday.
Elsewhere at Redcar, I like Style Award in the 2:00 race. She has dropped from a mark of 85 down to 68 in the last year but her 7th position last time was better than it looked as she was squeezed for room in the closing stages and would only have been a few lengths down at the line.
In the 3:45 at Redcar there are a couple having a run for a new trainer, Baltimore Jack notably but I prefer Buy On The Red. This is just the type the in-form David Nicholls can run up a sequence with and unlike Baltimore Jack is a proven winner over this specialist trip. 8/1 looks tempting to shortlist but at this stage of the season caution is the watchword so small stakes only.
Over at Warwick I think Winker Watson may get beaten in the 4:05 conditions stakes as he didn't look like he trained on last year and/or maybe a sprinter ? Much better value is Dream Eater who ran a close 5th to Henrythenavigator on his first run of the season in the 2000 Guineas last year ! Clearly goes well fresh and could be tough to beat. I also like Dalepak Flyer in the 5:15, could go well at decent odds if more patiently ridden than last time and I think a low draw helps here over 7f.
Finally over at Yarmouth I like Networker in the 4:00 race and a double-figure price about this C&D winner could see a return while in the last at 5:45 Old Romney is sure to be popular with Ryan Moore booked but is a bit of a bridesmaid and I would rather have an each-way bet on Onemoreandstay, again at double-figure odds. He was upped in trip last time, running well before being hampered and is worth another each-way bets at 12/1+.
Good Luck
I have decided to trim down the rated races for Easter Monday and will be staying away from maidens, sellers, national hunt flat races and the like. This still leaves just over 30+ races to pick from and I will start with the big one of the day and what could be some cracking races at Fairyhouse.
Redc 2:35 RARE COINCIDENCE
Fairy 3:10 AITMATOV
Fairy 3:55 GARDE CHAMPETRE
Chep 4:10 FORTY FIVE
Plum 4:50 GO HARVEY GO
Chep 4:45 BALLYVADEN
Fairy 5:05 FANTOCHE
Fairy 5:40 STEWARTS HOUSE
Fairyhouse 3:55 GARDE CHAMPETRE
Garde Champetre won very well at Cheltenham in the Cross-X chase off a mark of 150 and races here off a 9lb lower mark so that is one plus straight away. The 2nd plus is that he goes very well on top of the ground. The 3rd plus is that Nina Carberry is unbeaten in the horses 5 starts over the park obstacles at Punchestown and Cheltenham. The 4th plus is her family has a lot of history in this race. Her dad won the race twice as a jockey back in the 70's and trained Bobbyjo while her two brothers have won the race in the past. It has been 2 years since Garde Champetre jumped a regulation fence but after an excellent hurdling and novice chase campaign he was not really given the chance to show what he could do before taking on the specialist Cross-X fences. His stamina is assured, he could be well in and at a best-priced 14/1 he rates very decent each-way value I feel.
For dangers, Notro Pere is unlikely to line up but would be a danger if the trainer decides to take a risk despite the ground. Wichita Lineman is next best but if the weights do go up in the abscence of Notre Pere he will have to lump 11-12 and I just can't see him being up to that and worth noting the last 5 top-weights in this race have all pulled up. A bigger danger could be the classy Casey Jones who had previously beaten Trafford Lad and Emma Jane and was eased in the Sun Alliance only to finish line a train to almost get 4th, albeit a distance behind the winner Cooldine. Emma Jane and Pomme Tiepy come into the mix with the latter being preferred as the mount of stable jock Ruby Walsh.
Fairyhouse 3:10 AITMATOV
AITMATOV was outstayed in heavy ground over this trip last time behind Catch Me but did win the Hatton Grace Hurdle here 2 years ago on heavy ground so I don't necessarily think it was either the trip or ground, I just don't think he likes Navan as he has is only 1/7 at that track whereas he is 2/4 at Fairyhouse so I will give him a chance and quotes of 8/1 could reward each-way money. Meade/Carberry teamed up well with Aran Concerto on Sunday so confidence will be high.
I have the tissue favourite Powerstation a close 2nd on the ratings but I can't have him over this 2 1/2 miles on good ground as I feel he needs 3 miles+. He has now been outpaced in a 3 Cheltenham events, albeit 2 of them being the Coral Cup and World Hurdle but he will seriously struggle to lie up with the others I feel. I think Nicanor is a likelier danger. He has shaken off the tag of only horse to beat Denman (in the Sun Alliance hurdle 3 years ago). After an abortive first run in 2 years, over fences, he arguably has his optimum conditions but you are taking a chance he is the same horse he was before his injury.
Fairyhouse 5:05 FANTOCHE
Fantoche started off his chasing career ok last season, managed a win but was thrown in at a couple of Graded events which proved beyond him as he looks a handicapper. He was only beaten less than a length in a similar event last time at Leopardstown when he had his first run with Barry on board, and they could go one better here. He clearly likes top of the ground, Barry Geraghty is riding supremely at the moment and also worth noting when he has the leg up on a Jessica Harrington runner. Quotes of 12 on Betfair look quite big and he is another worth an each-way bet on Monday.
Fairyhouse 5:40 STEWARTS HOUSE
The presence of Lochan Lacha and Ruby Walsh mean we get a decent price on the 2nd on my ratings Stewarts House. He won very well last time and runs off a mark of 114 here which isn't too bad considering he was rated 123 over hurdles so there may be more to come and at 5/1+ he could be a low risk each-way bet. Lochan Lacha didn't jump too well last time and a much bigger danger could come from the horse Ruby has deserted after scoring on him last time, Monte Cinto. That one could be worth a small each-way cover on the selection. Dulgodti Bob is weighted to reverse their running but it's only a 4lb pull and I think he will confirm their placings.
Tony Martin has started firing in the winners and Ruby Walsh is an eye-catching booking for Psycho in the 2:40, I will have a small bet but it's not really my kind of price and I don't like the overall shape of the race much.
Elsewhere in Ireland, a mixed, early-season card at Cork run on soft/heavy ground is one to swerve especially the big handicaps with apprentice jocks but I've put the ratings in anyway. The only thing I would say is to pay attention to young Wayne Lordan. He was a decent apprentice and as with a lot of these jocks struggled once he lost his claim but he is getting some decent rides for the likes of Tommy Stack and David Wachman and had a couple of winners yesterday. He could be a jockey to watch this season.
Chepstow 4:10 FORTY FIVE
Heading back across the pond and I've been waiting for Forty Five since he won with consummate ease last time under Tony McCoy. If McCoy was not riding in Ireland today I feel he would be a lot shorter than the 7/2 early quote on Betfair. This is partly the reason but also the presence of a Paul Nicholls French-purchase and a 19lb rise in the weights could be a bit to do with it, but he looked pretty special last time and the price is right for me for a win bet as Nicholls horse has a lot to prove and also worth pointing out, no Ruby Walsh ;-) C&D winner Mango Catcher is in good heart, is top-rated and the main challenger if Nicholls horse fails to fire.
Chepstow 4:45 BALLYVADEN
An 18-runner handicap doesn't look the wisest betting proposition but a lot of these are out of sorts or unreliable. Not so Ballyvaden who is seeking the hat-trick after a couple of wins at Leicester. Not only that but her trainer Mrs Caroline Keevil is red-hot at the moment with two winners in Deep Pockets and Dizzy Future on Sunday. Her record with the latter proves she knows what it takes to keep a horse in-form and at 6/1+ we can lump on each way in the knowledge that it will more than likely not be out of the first-4 with a strong chance of the win.
Plumpton 4:50 GO HARVEY GO
Go Harvey Go ran well last time when stepped up in trip but his stamina gave way in the bottomless ground at Towcester which is stamina sapping at the best of times. Back over this sharper track on better ground he can be seen to much better effect and could provide an each-way value alternative to the favourite. Cross Kennon won 3 outings ago off a mark of 72 but failed to win 4 days later carrying a 7lb penalty. He then ran 4 days ago off a mark of 92 and scored comfortably. He has another 7lb penalty today but I have a feeling this race is tougher than last time, that he may need a bit more time between his races and so he could be vulnerable having his 4th race in the space of just over a month.
The rest of the Plumpton card loooks decidedly moderate and trappy but keep an eye out for Gary Moore runners there. He generally does well here with fancied hurdles runners so keep an eye on any support for Maxwil or Maclean in the 2:30 and 3:05 races respectively.
Fakenham looks trappy but the best bet there might be Lord Alfred who will come on for what was virtually his first run in over a year and trip and ground should suit but it's hard to be confident about anything on the card.
Huntingdon looks even worse and I won't even bother rating their races.
Redcar 2:35 RARE COINCIDENCE
In the 2:35 race Rare Coincidence reappears quickly with a 6lb penalty and at around 11/2 could be worth a decent each-way bet if Callan can poach a lead early in the straight again, could prove tough to peg back in this form. This is probably the only one I can pick out from the flat on Monday.
Elsewhere at Redcar, I like Style Award in the 2:00 race. She has dropped from a mark of 85 down to 68 in the last year but her 7th position last time was better than it looked as she was squeezed for room in the closing stages and would only have been a few lengths down at the line.
In the 3:45 at Redcar there are a couple having a run for a new trainer, Baltimore Jack notably but I prefer Buy On The Red. This is just the type the in-form David Nicholls can run up a sequence with and unlike Baltimore Jack is a proven winner over this specialist trip. 8/1 looks tempting to shortlist but at this stage of the season caution is the watchword so small stakes only.
Over at Warwick I think Winker Watson may get beaten in the 4:05 conditions stakes as he didn't look like he trained on last year and/or maybe a sprinter ? Much better value is Dream Eater who ran a close 5th to Henrythenavigator on his first run of the season in the 2000 Guineas last year ! Clearly goes well fresh and could be tough to beat. I also like Dalepak Flyer in the 5:15, could go well at decent odds if more patiently ridden than last time and I think a low draw helps here over 7f.
Finally over at Yarmouth I like Networker in the 4:00 race and a double-figure price about this C&D winner could see a return while in the last at 5:45 Old Romney is sure to be popular with Ryan Moore booked but is a bit of a bridesmaid and I would rather have an each-way bet on Onemoreandstay, again at double-figure odds. He was upped in trip last time, running well before being hampered and is worth another each-way bets at 12/1+.
Good Luck
| Course | Time | Horse | RAT | RATR | Sup |
| CHEPSTOW | 3-35 | Russian Around (IRE) | 492 | 2 | |
| CHEPSTOW | 3-35 | Pangbourne (FR) | 502 | 1 | +10 |
| CHEPSTOW | 4-10 | Mango Catcher (IRE) | 472 | 2 | |
| CHEPSTOW | 4-10 | Forty Five (IRE) | 484 | 1 | +12 |
| CHEPSTOW | 4-45 | Twilight Eagle (IRE) | 451 | 2 | |
| CHEPSTOW | 4-45 | Ballyvaden (IRE) | 455 | 1 | +4 |
| CORK | 2-55 | Cnocan Gold (IRE) | 359 | 2 | |
| CORK | 2-55 | Croisultan (IRE) | 363 | 1 | +4 |
| CORK | 3-30 | Inoma James (IRE) | 372 | 2 | |
| CORK | 3-30 | Glenfolan (IRE) | 389 | 1 | +17 |
| CORK | 4-40 | Nazdaq (IRE) | 379 | 2 | |
| CORK | 4-40 | Ready To Rocknroll (IRE) | 390 | 1 | +11 |
| CORK | 5-15 | Killinan (IRE) | 364 | 2 | |
| CORK | 5-15 | Majestic Times (IRE) | 373 | 1 | +9 |
| FAIRYHOUSE | 2-10 | Serpentaria | 518 | 1 | +33 |
| FAIRYHOUSE | 2-10 | Baily View (IRE) | 485 | 2 | |
| FAIRYHOUSE | 2-40 | Psycho (IRE) | 536 | 1 | +7 |
| FAIRYHOUSE | 2-40 | Dancing Tornado (IRE) | 529 | 2 | |
| FAIRYHOUSE | 3-10 | Aitmatov (GER) | 578 | 2 | |
| FAIRYHOUSE | 3-10 | Powerstation (IRE) | 588 | 1 | +10 |
| FAIRYHOUSE | 3-55 | Wichita Lineman (IRE) | 579 | 2 | |
| FAIRYHOUSE | 3-55 | Garde Champetre (FR) | 586 | 1 | +7 |
| FAIRYHOUSE | 5-05 | Back On The Road (IRE) | 505 | 2 | |
| FAIRYHOUSE | 5-05 | Fantoche (BRZ) | 513 | 1 | +8 |
| FAIRYHOUSE | 5-40 | Monte Cinto (FR) | 477 | 2 | |
| FAIRYHOUSE | 5-40 | Stewarts House (IRE) | 481 | 1 | +4 |
| FAKENHAM | 3-15 | E Major | 410 | 2 | |
| FAKENHAM | 3-15 | Cornelia | 422 | 1 | +12 |
| FAKENHAM | 3-50 | Ortega (FR) | 419 | 2 | |
| FAKENHAM | 3-50 | Tampa Boy (IRE) | 433 | 1 | +14 |
| FAKENHAM | 4-25 | Craven (IRE) | 442 | 2 | |
| FAKENHAM | 4-25 | Lord Alfred (IRE) | 448 | 1 | +6 |
| PLUMPTON | 2-30 | Art Trend (IRE) | 436 | 2 | |
| PLUMPTON | 2-30 | Tobago Bay | 474 | 1 | +38 |
| PLUMPTON | 3-05 | Cusp | 376 | 2 | |
| PLUMPTON | 3-05 | Glengarra (IRE) | 382 | 1 | +6 |
| PLUMPTON | 3-40 | Estate | 418 | 2 | |
| PLUMPTON | 3-40 | Balakar (IRE) | 423 | 1 | +5 |
| PLUMPTON | 4-15 | Predateur (FR) | 494 | 2 | |
| PLUMPTON | 4-15 | Gauvain (GER) | 565 | 1 | +71 |
| PLUMPTON | 4-50 | Go Harvey Go (IRE) | 382 | 2 | |
| PLUMPTON | 4-50 | Cross Kennon (IRE) | 401 | 1 | +19 |
| PLUMPTON | 5-25 | Strolling Vagabond (IRE) | 381 | 2 | |
| PLUMPTON | 5-25 | Walton Way | 392 | 1 | +11 |
| REDCAR | 2-00 | Gap Princess (IRE) | 342 | 2 | |
| REDCAR | 2-00 | Style Award | 345 | 1 | +3 |
| REDCAR | 2-35 | Rare Coincidence | 334 | 2 | |
| REDCAR | 2-35 | Categorical | 346 | 1 | +12 |
| REDCAR | 3-45 | Baltimore Jack (IRE) | 335 | 2 | |
| REDCAR | 3-45 | Buy On The Red | 337 | 1 | +2 |
| REDCAR | 4-55 | Charlie Tipple | 374 | 2 | |
| REDCAR | 4-55 | Just Bond (IRE) | 386 | 1 | +12 |
| REDCAR | 5-30 | Simple Rhythm | 292 | 2 | |
| REDCAR | 5-30 | Fasliyanne (IRE) | 293 | 1 | +1 |
| WARWICK | 4-05 | Dream Eater (IRE) | 461 | 1 | +0 |
| WARWICK | 4-05 | Winker Watson | 461 | 1 | |
| WARWICK | 5-15 | Dalepak Flyer (IRE) | 280 | 1 | +0 |
| WARWICK | 5-15 | Everaard (USA) | 280 | 1 | |
| WARWICK | 5-50 | Debdene Bank (IRE) | 310 | 1 | +0 |
| WARWICK | 5-50 | Jackie Kiely | 310 | 2 | |
| YARMOUTH | 2-50 | Smokey Rye | 342 | 2 | |
| YARMOUTH | 2-50 | Astrodonna | 346 | 1 | +4 |
| YARMOUTH | 4-00 | Sands Of Barra (IRE) | 320 | 2 | |
| YARMOUTH | 4-00 | Networker | 327 | 1 | +7 |
| YARMOUTH | 5-45 | Onemoreandstay | 337 | 2 | |
| YARMOUTH | 5-45 | Old Romney | 352 | 1 | +15 |
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