Scottish National
I'll kick off with the big race of the day up at Ayr, the Scottish National. The first on my list is easy,TRICKY TRICKSTER is a close 2nd on the ratings, represents the in-form Nigel Twiston-Davies (who knows a thing or too about winning Nationals), the horse has stamina in abundance, has never finished out of the first two over fences and he is following the same route as Hot Weld and Old Benny. No problem, lump it each-way at 9/1 with Bet365 best-odds guaranteed. The only downside is that no 6 year old has won the Scottish National since Earth Summit in '94, trained by errr, yep you guessed it ;-)
I personally like the look of Merigo who won the Eider last time on soft but has won round here on decent ground. If I didn't have ratings he would be my 2nd best but he is a bit skinny in the market for a 2nd speculative punt. However, I will probably have a small cover bet on him for at least half the stakes on the other two.
I have to have faith in my ratings though so I will go with top-rated, champion-trainer trained DEAR VILLEZ for the 2nd bet each-waay at 22/1, again with Bet365. OK, he has top-weight but he did win the Munster National in October and has not been disgraced when 4th in the Hennessy to Madison Du Berlais, 5th in the Peter Marsh and last time when 4th in the NH Chase. He is entitled to be carrying the weight he is and with watering due to take place overnight, the ground may be ok for him.
Middleton Dene is an outsider worth including in forecast/tricast bets as I expect a big run from the stable who are starting to do really well at the mo.
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Shanakil skips Greenham
The breaking news for Saturday is that Lord Shanakil is out of the Greenham. I'm not too worried, in fact I had a bit more on at 50 on Betfair when the news broke. It is a minor issue and Karl Burke is just being ultra-cautious as he knows a long horse-box trip to Newbury, especially as the ground is likely to be getting softer from further rain there, is the last thing he needs for a prep. I never like the Greenham as a trial and it has a horrendous record so it's probably a blessing in disguise and he heads straight to Newmarket still with a very strong chance. Don't panic !
"He doesn't run," said trainer Karl Burke on Friday. "We have had a slight hiccup in that he has had a slightly elevated temperature this morning and we just daren't take any chances with him by travelling down to Newbury.
"He will now go straight to the Guineas. He will have a quiet weekend. All being well his temperature will be fine tomorrow morning. He will have light exercise over the weekend and then resume on Monday.
"It's amazing. We haven't had a hiccup all winter with him and the day before you want to give him a prep run, he gets something, but that's horses for you."
As requested, I now list the top-3 in the ratings for each race and summarise the best bets below.
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Best Bets
Newb 2:05 ROYAL AND REGAL win @ 11/4 (Bet365, Paddy Power)
Newb 2:35 ZAAHID e/w @ 10 & HUZZAH e/w @ 13 & MAWAATHEEQ e/w @ 19 (Bet365)
Ayr 2:50 SNAP TIE e/w @ 9 (Paddy Power)
Ayr 3:05 TRICKY TRICKSTER e/w @ 10 & DEAR VILLEZ e/w @ 23 (Bet365)
Newb 3:10 LAHALEEB e/w @ 9/2 (Paddy Power)
Ayr 5:05 FRESH AIR AND FUN win @ 4
Rest of Ayr card...
Ayr
1:45 Giorgio Quercos @ 3.05
Saticon is clear of Giorgio Quercus and should be one of the safest bets on the card but I'm not convince King's runners are quite in top form at the moment and the price is not good enough to justify a bet given the way he ran last time at Aintree. Giorgio is probably the better value given the trainer has a 28% strike-rate and with Geraghty riding really well but it's one of a few horrible little races.
2:20 Tot O'Whiskey @ 13
I like I'msingingtheblues and he is rated further clear of the 2nd than Saticon is but if he is odds-on he is getting laid, not for much as I really like the horse and think he is clearly the one to beat but I'll put a lay up at 10% shorter than his odds at the off and cross my fingers. Of course if he is odds-against then he will be getting bet...does that make any sense ? ;-)
Deep Purple is clear 2nd best and ran well at Aintree but my preference for a very small bet (pennies) would be for Tot O'Whiskey. Not the most reliable of types but the first-time blinkers may sharpen his ideas up a bit and the cheekpieces may also help Turkish Supreme as well. I wouldn't want to take a very short price on the favourite in this with so many ?marks.
2:50 SNAP TIE e/w @ 9 (Paddy Power)
I really, really like Medermit but he did let us down a touch at Cheltenham and needs to improve a bit to beat top-rated (albeit by only 1pt) Snap Tie. The Hobbs runner will love the better ground he will encounter here and his defeat of last year's Champion Hurdle winner Katchit and subsequent close 2nd to Harchibald in the Xmas Hurdle (alongside Punjabi when he fell) rates by far the best form here and he rates massive, massive each-way value at 9 with Paddy Power.
4:00 The Polomoche @ 7.8
Which one of the 3 top-rated, out of orm runners do we side with in this horrible handicap hurdle, easy the one with McCoy on board. The Polomoche has been poor the last 2 outings but McCoy may be able to get something out of him.
4:35 Lord Henry @ 10.5
Probably the best value in the race but I can't motivate myself to analyse it. It's Nicholls, it's top-rated and likely double-figures so it should at least place.
5:05 FRESH AIR AND FUN @ 4
Top-rated Valley Ride is respected but is maybe rated higher than he should be after the capitulation of his main rival last time. Fresh Air and Fun though has Mccoy and also has the form, having beaten Zacharova. I can see it starting favourite and being punted. He jumped and travelled well at Sandown and should score here in some style, definitely one to follow on that run and best to get on at the 3/1 before the Jim McGrath fortunes are lumped on.
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Newbury
A nice looking card at Newbury, the 'Postie' (see section below) has put me on to one here in the opener but he has asked me not to post it until he can shop around for the best price in the morning so I'll probably put the name of it up around 10:30 or something.
2:05 ROYAL AND REGAL win @ 11/4 (Bet365, Paddy Power)
In the absence of main danger Spanish Moon, Royal and Regal can win this race for the 2nd year running with the ground ideal. He went on last season to run a close 2nd in the Yorkshire Cup when the ground was too fast for his rounded action (so I've been told). He was just edged out on the line by Geordieland that day and then placed behind Honolulu in the Doncaster Cup. He has been gelded over the winter, which may bring further improvement, and he could be an Ascot Gold Cup horse this year, ground permitting. Has been going well on the gallops by all accounts, is fit to go in first time and should take the beating here. Centennial looks the chief threat but Tastahil has had a run and represents the flaming Barry Hills yard.
2:35 ZAAHID e/w @ 10 & HUZZAH e/w @ 13 & MAWAATHEEQ e/w @ 19 (Bet365)
I used to love to tear races like this apart from a trends and form perspective. My ratings pretty much do that for me now and leaves me free to concentrate on the principals, namely the top-3 or 5 on the ratings. However, if memory serves we want an unexposed 4yo, less than about 12/1 but not the favourite, for an in-form stable.
Flipando has not won on turf for a long time now but did score in the Lincoln Trial and not disgraced in that race last time. However, not won with 'soft' in the going description.
Zaahid was 3rd in this last year en-route to taking the Victoria Cup, was runner-up to Expresso Star in the Lincoln and his stable, well we know the score by now. 9/1 is a fairly decent each-way price, will handle the going but there may be one better handicapped in the field.
I do think that when it's soft a low draw 'may' be preferable here.
Mawatheeq is well drawn and it looks a tough ask from that mark. However, he is entered in the Lockinge so he could be very decent and with a low draw he is very interesting, the ground is a worry but there won't be many less exposed runners in the race. I will have to have a cover on this one just in case but he will be the smallest bet of the 3.
4th on the ratings is Benandonner who bounced back from a poor Lincoln run last time to run 2nd at Kempton and is respected with Fahey as equally flammable as Barry Hills but be surprised if he is up to winning a race this competitive.
Spring Mile winner Manassas looks like being a springer, perhaps Pricewise but I prefer Huzzah as my main bet. Huzzah won at this meeting last year and then Chester so is clearly a spring horse. Michael is on board for father Barry and high draw gives good coverage on both sides for the most in-form trainer in the country. Not beaten far behind Expresso Star in the Lincoln, will have put him spot on for this, he can improve for that and probably is better handicapped than his stablemate.
The only other one I like is Jaser. Chapple-Hyam runners often do well on soft and this one was progressive last term with cut and ran ok last time behind Expresson Start. Ryan Moore is an eye-catching booking but he could meet trouble as he needs to be brought late on the scene.
3:10 LAHALEEB e/w @ 5.5 (Paddy Power)
A trappy looking Fred Darling but since Lahaleeb won her nursery over c&d she improved throughout the season placing behind Fantasia, Rainbow View before winning the Rockfel at Newmarket. Easily the best form, just a question if she is sharp enough, has trained on and whether there is anything with more scope in the field, hence the each-way. The Hannon runners are the obvious dangers along with the Jim Bolger favourite Maoineach. Yorksters Girl is interesting at a big price, 4th on the ratings and 25/1 but I'll just stick with the Channon filly.
3:45 Cityscape win @ 7/2
As much as I would love to see top-rated Shaweel boost the form of both Mastercraftsman and the Dewhurst form I am not convinced about Godolphin at this stage. Sure, this one is probably one of their leading players so could be different gravy but whether they are ready enough to win at the first time of asking or not ? Finjaan will struggle to stay 7f in soft ground so Cityscape by Selkirk out of a Distant View mare should have his optimum conditions and is the selection but it's not a race for big stakes due to the uncertainty surrounding the Godolphin runner.
Think I will leave it there, all the ratings are below...don't forget to read further down the page, got some info coming later this morning. Others that should win include Wheelavit 3:50 @ Bangor, Native Coral 4:25 @ Bangor while over at Thirsk I like Hitchens in the 3:35 and Fantasy Believer in the 4:45 race.
| Course | Time | Horse | RAT | RATR | Sup |
| AYR | 1-45 | Saticon | 529 | 1 | +38 |
| AYR | 1-45 | Giorgio Quercus (FR) | 491 | 2 | |
| AYR | 1-45 | Marc Aurele (IRE) | 285 | 3 | |
| AYR | 2-20 | I'msingingtheblues (IRE) | 588 | 1 | +34 |
| AYR | 2-20 | Deep Purple | 554 | 2 | |
| AYR | 2-20 | Tot O'Whiskey | 508 | 3 | |
| AYR | 2-50 | Snap Tie (IRE) | 593 | 1 | +1 |
| AYR | 2-50 | Medermit (FR) | 592 | 2 | |
| AYR | 2-50 | Sentry Duty (FR) | 584 | 3 | |
| AYR | 3-25 | Dear Villez (FR) | 569 | 1 | +2 |
| AYR | 3-25 | Tricky Trickster (IRE) | 567 | 2 | |
| AYR | 3-25 | Gone To Lunch (IRE) | 566 | 3 | |
| AYR | 4-00 | The Polomoche (IRE) | 547 | 1 | +13 |
| AYR | 4-00 | Middleton Dene (IRE) | 534 | 2 | |
| AYR | 4-00 | Working Title (IRE) | 526 | 3 | |
| AYR | 4-35 | Lord Henry (IRE) | 571 | 1 | +2 |
| AYR | 4-35 | Andreas (FR) | 569 | 2 | |
| AYR | 4-35 | Medicinal (IRE) | 567 | 3 | |
| AYR | 5-05 | Valley Ride (IRE) | 507 | 1 | +9 |
| AYR | 5-05 | Fresh Air And Fun (IRE) | 498 | 2 | |
| AYR | 5-05 | Silver By Nature | 498 | 3 | |
| BANGOR-ON-DEE | 2-10 | Minella Theatre (IRE) | 470 | 1 | +17 |
| BANGOR-ON-DEE | 2-10 | Shenanigan | 453 | 2 | |
| BANGOR-ON-DEE | 2-10 | Double Hit | 451 | 3 | |
| BANGOR-ON-DEE | 2-40 | Mars Rock (FR) | 457 | 1 | +6 |
| BANGOR-ON-DEE | 2-40 | Sashenka | 451 | 2 | |
| BANGOR-ON-DEE | 2-40 | Double Obsession | 451 | 2 | |
| BANGOR-ON-DEE | 3-15 | Double The Trouble | 472 | 1 | +6 |
| BANGOR-ON-DEE | 3-15 | Just Smudge | 466 | 2 | |
| BANGOR-ON-DEE | 3-15 | Or D'Oudairies (FR) | 461 | 3 | |
| BANGOR-ON-DEE | 3-50 | Wheelavit (IRE) | 417 | 1 | +19 |
| BANGOR-ON-DEE | 3-50 | Nayodabayo (IRE) | 398 | 2 | |
| BANGOR-ON-DEE | 3-50 | Speedy Directa (GER) | 397 | 3 | |
| BANGOR-ON-DEE | 4-25 | Native Coral (IRE) | 522 | 1 | +3 |
| BANGOR-ON-DEE | 4-25 | Go For One (IRE) | 519 | 2 | |
| BANGOR-ON-DEE | 4-25 | Victor Daly (IRE) | 505 | 3 | |
| DONCASTER | 4-40 | Secret Night | 339 | 1 | +1 |
| DONCASTER | 4-40 | Fiefdom (IRE) | 338 | 2 | |
| DONCASTER | 4-40 | El Dececy (USA) | 325 | 3 | |
| DONCASTER | 5-40 | Swiss Diva | 381 | 1 | +1 |
| DONCASTER | 5-40 | Polish Pride | 380 | 2 | |
| DONCASTER | 5-40 | Lucky Numbers (IRE) | 377 | 3 | |
| DONCASTER | 6-15 | Unnefer (FR) | 457 | 1 | +6 |
| DONCASTER | 6-15 | King Of Dixie (USA) | 451 | 2 | |
| DONCASTER | 6-15 | Atlantic Sport (USA) | 447 | 3 | |
| DONCASTER | 6-50 | Redesignation (IRE) | 419 | 1 | +7 |
| DONCASTER | 6-50 | Mull Of Dubai | 412 | 2 | |
| DONCASTER | 6-50 | Princess Taylor | 410 | 3 | |
| DONCASTER | 7-25 | Encircled | 381 | 1 | +5 |
| DONCASTER | 7-25 | Rio Guru (IRE) | 376 | 2 | |
| DONCASTER | 7-25 | Confidentiality (IRE) | 375 | 3 | |
| NEWBURY | 1-30 | Hi Fling | 198 | 1 | +0 |
| NEWBURY | 1-30 | Border Patrol | 198 | 2 | |
| NEWBURY | 1-30 | Ebiayn (FR) | 190 | 3 | |
| NEWBURY | 2-05 | Royal And Regal (IRE) | 464 | 1 | +0 |
| NEWBURY | 2-05 | Centennial (IRE) | 464 | 2 | |
| NEWBURY | 2-05 | Scintillo | 452 | 3 | |
| NEWBURY | 2-35 | Flipando (IRE) | 432 | 1 | +8 |
| NEWBURY | 2-35 | Zaahid (IRE) | 424 | 2 | |
| NEWBURY | 2-35 | Mawatheeq (USA) | 423 | 3 | |
| NEWBURY | 3-10 | Lahaleeb (IRE) | 447 | 1 | +26 |
| NEWBURY | 3-10 | Infamous Angel | 421 | 2 | |
| NEWBURY | 3-10 | Baileys Cacao (IRE) | 414 | 3 | |
| NEWBURY | 3-45 | Shaweel | 472 | 1 | +6 |
| NEWBURY | 3-45 | Finjaan | 466 | 2 | |
| NEWBURY | 3-45 | Cityscape | 444 | 3 | |
| NEWBURY | 4-15 | Bennelong | 240 | 1 | +10 |
| NEWBURY | 4-15 | Arabian Flame (IRE) | 230 | 2 | |
| NEWBURY | 4-15 | Mehendi (IRE) | 212 | 3 | |
| NEWBURY | 4-50 | Mighty Moon | 380 | 1 | +10 |
| NEWBURY | 4-50 | Winged D'Argent (IRE) | 370 | 2 | |
| NEWBURY | 4-50 | Cape Greko | 367 | 3 | |
| NEWBURY | 5-20 | Moves Goodenough | 396 | 1 | +12 |
| NEWBURY | 5-20 | Invasian (IRE) | 384 | 2 | |
| NEWBURY | 5-20 | Trans Siberian | 381 | 3 | |
| NOTTINGHAM | 5-30 | Keep Dancing (IRE) | 321 | 1 | +6 |
| NOTTINGHAM | 5-30 | Piste | 315 | 2 | |
| NOTTINGHAM | 5-30 | Today's The Day | 313 | 3 | |
| NOTTINGHAM | 6-00 | Raccoon (IRE) | 340 | 1 | +6 |
| NOTTINGHAM | 6-00 | Figaro Flyer (IRE) | 334 | 2 | |
| NOTTINGHAM | 6-00 | Guto | 332 | 3 | |
| NOTTINGHAM | 6-35 | Cornish Castle (USA) | 310 | 1 | +1 |
| NOTTINGHAM | 6-35 | Incendo | 309 | 2 | |
| NOTTINGHAM | 6-35 | Ay Tay Tate (IRE) | 309 | 3 | |
| NOTTINGHAM | 7-40 | Nicky Nutjob (GER) | 294 | 1 | +1 |
| NOTTINGHAM | 7-40 | Chalk Hill Blue | 293 | 2 | |
| NOTTINGHAM | 7-40 | Graycliffe (IRE) | 283 | 3 | |
| THIRSK | 2-30 | Atlantic Story (USA) | 420 | 1 | +9 |
| THIRSK | 2-30 | Flawed Genius | 411 | 2 | |
| THIRSK | 2-30 | Minority Report | 410 | 3 | |
| THIRSK | 3-00 | Monfils Monfils (USA) | 349 | 1 | +12 |
| THIRSK | 3-00 | Sporting Gesture | 337 | 2 | |
| THIRSK | 3-00 | Herrera (IRE) | 336 | 3 | |
| THIRSK | 3-35 | Knot In Wood (IRE) | 444 | 1 | +10 |
| THIRSK | 3-35 | Wi Dud | 434 | 2 | |
| THIRSK | 3-35 | Hitchens (IRE) | 433 | 3 | |
| THIRSK | 4-10 | Noble Storm (USA) | 381 | 1 | +10 |
| THIRSK | 4-10 | Caranbola | 371 | 2 | |
| THIRSK | 4-10 | Mullglen | 370 | 3 | |
| THIRSK | 4-45 | Fantasy Believer | 367 | 1 | +8 |
| THIRSK | 4-45 | Cornus | 359 | 2 | |
| THIRSK | 4-45 | Woodsley House (IRE) | 345 | 3 |
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