From the 38 that were 2nd top-rated, they produced 6 winners, 3 2nd's and 2 3rd's.
So to summarise, the winner of 13 of the 38 races came from the top-2 in the ratings which is a fair strike-rate. If you ignore some of the maiden and National Hunt flat races then the strike-rate gets even better so I am happy with how the new ratings performed overall on their first real day of use.
I re-invested half my winnings yesterday on Bermuda Pointe once I could see him in the paddock and the stable confidence, unfortunately it meant I missed the opening 4/1 but it worked out very well indeed so the bank is getting boosted for whenever I decide to take up the 50k challenge, which may be Sunday, who knows.
http://twitpic.com/35q59
Sunday Ratings & Analysis
Cork 3:55 LINE BALL
Fairy 2:45 SHIRLEY CASPER
Fairy 3:45 TRAFFORD LAD
Muss 3:50 EXCUSEZ MOI
Muss 4:20 GORDONSVILLE
Towc 3:10 PTERODACTYL
Towc 3:40 OSCAR JACK
Some fair stuff on Sunday. The first one that caught my eye is the Christy Roche/JP McManus owned LINE BALL (6.2 Betfair) in the 3:55 at Cork. Fairly well handicapped over hurdles compared to his chase mark, Tony McCoy take the ride and he sports first time blinkers, the horse that is not McCoy ;-) He looks like he could be worthy of each-way support, if the blinkers bring about improvement he could win. Main danger could be the Willie Mullins-trained top-weight Freds Benefit.
Over at Fairyhouse and nothing stands out quite as much as Line Ball but one thing that does is the presence of Barry Geraghty who is riding seriously well at the moment. The one that catches my eye is SHIRLEY CASPER (9.8 Betfair) in the 2:45 She is rated well clear of the 2nd on the ratings although is a frustrating type who consistently places. Barry was on board though for her win two outings ago so he may know how to get the best out of her, again she is likely to be an each-way price.
In the big race at Fairyhouse @ 3:45, the Powers Gold Cup, Ballyholland is top-rated but burst a blood vessel last time, prefers top of the ground and is perhaps flattered on the ratings. The gutsy TRAFFORD LAD is preferred and likely to start shorter than his price of 9/4 on Betfair. He lost his unbeaten record behind Casey Jones after having previously defeated Arkle winner Forpadydeplasterer and ran a decent 3rd to subsequent Sun Alliance winner Cooldine and Forpadydeplasterer last time. That was an even better effort than it looked as he scoped badly after that race and his prep had been held up by a bruised foot. If he is back to close to 100% he takes the beating.
On the sole flat card at Musselburgh on Sunday I am going to take a bit of a chance with an outsider in the sprint handicap at 3:50 with EXCUSEZ MOI. Winner of the 2006 Great St Wilfrid off a mark of 99 and thought to be a one time Guineas horse by Clive Britain, he has clearly lost a fair bit of that ability but he ran a decent enough race at Doncaster on his first turf start since September last year, finishing a very close 3rd in the group that had the worst of things and yet he has been dropped a couple more pounds to a mark of 83. He has first-time cheekpieces on today which may just help focus his mind a bit more. A lot of these are poor types but Excusez Moi did show glimpses of class when contesting GP2 and GP3 races last season and he looks well worth each-way support if he is anywhere close to the 25/1 quote in the Racing Post tissue.
The handicap at 4:20 @ Musselburgh can go to Jim Goldie's GORDONSVILLE who can finally break his turf bridesmaid tag. His last 3 runs here last season read 2-2-2 and he is generally frustrating but two of those runs were in much hotter Class2 handicaps, he goes pretty well fresh and there has to be a chance this is his early season target. Probable each-way bet to nothing but lets hope today is the day as I feel he has the right combo of ground and trip which I feel he needs and Pass The Port's absence can only increase his chances of success.
Speaking of Port, PUSH THE PORT in the 4:30 at Plumpton can follow up his recent C&D success last time in the handicap chase. He is comparatively well handicapped over fences compared to his hurdles mark and the first-time cheekpieces clearly did the trick. With National winning jockey Liam Treadwell full of confidence at the moment, he can bely odds of 5.2 on Betfair currently.
Gary Moore's HIGH LIFE could be an interesting each-way in the 5:00 race there (11.5 Betfair). She landed her maiden hurdle win for Alan King back in 2007 over 2 miles on decent ground off a mark of 106. It's easy to make excuses for poor horses over time but a combination of high handicap mark, soft ground, too long a trip AND fences have been against him for some time. Fortunately, that means he runs today off a mark of 90 in optimum conditions for a trainer who has a good record at the course and is bang in form. Philip Hide takes the ride for the first time.
Over at Towcester recent C&D winner PTERODACTYL can go in again in the 3:10, albeit at shorter odds than ideal. I can see this one going off close to odds-on though from it's current mark of 2.74 and could be more of an early trade. Venetia Williams team is bang in form right now and she can possibly follow up with OSCAR JACK in the 3:40 race who looks too big at 5's.
| Course | Time | Horse | RAT | RATR | Sup |
| CORK | 2-25 | Audrey (GER) | 351 | 1 | +108 |
| CORK | 2-25 | Moving Heart (IRE) | 243 | 2 | |
| CORK | 2-55 | Liberty To Rock (IRE) | 350 | 1 | +28 |
| CORK | 2-55 | Daggers Bond (IRE) | 322 | 2 | |
| CORK | 3-25 | Well Insured (IRE) | 304 | 1 | +5 |
| CORK | 3-25 | Napoleon Dynamite (IRE) | 299 | 2 | |
| CORK | 3-55 | Line Ball (IRE) | 526 | 1 | +11 |
| CORK | 3-55 | Freds Benefit (IRE) | 515 | 2 | |
| CORK | 4-25 | Marhaba Million (IRE) | 455 | 1 | +119 |
| CORK | 4-25 | Grand Lahou (FR) | 336 | 2 | |
| CORK | 4-55 | Osborn (FR) | 446 | 1 | +71 |
| CORK | 4-55 | Speedlock (IRE) | 375 | 2 | |
| CORK | 5-25 | Urban Gale (IRE) | 222 | 1 | +54 |
| CORK | 5-25 | Owner Occupier | 168 | 2 | |
| FAIRYHOUSE | 2-15 | In The Haven (IRE) | 486 | 1 | +13 |
| FAIRYHOUSE | 2-15 | Slievecorragh (IRE) | 473 | 2 | |
| FAIRYHOUSE | 2-45 | Shirley Casper (IRE) | 498 | 1 | +118 |
| FAIRYHOUSE | 2-45 | Seisdon Honour (IRE) | 380 | 2 | |
| FAIRYHOUSE | 3-15 | Fisher Bridge (IRE) | 497 | 1 | +111 |
| FAIRYHOUSE | 3-15 | Fosters Cross (IRE) | 386 | 2 | |
| FAIRYHOUSE | 3-45 | Ballyholland (IRE) | 480 | 1 | +63 |
| FAIRYHOUSE | 3-45 | Trafford Lad | 417 | 2 | |
| FAIRYHOUSE | 4-15 | Mick The Man (IRE) | 527 | 1 | +3 |
| FAIRYHOUSE | 4-15 | Clan Tara (IRE) | 524 | 2 | |
| FAIRYHOUSE | 4-45 | Beautiful Vision (IRE) | 459 | 1 | +4 |
| FAIRYHOUSE | 4-45 | Aggie's Lad (IRE) | 455 | 2 | |
| FAIRYHOUSE | 5-15 | Coole River (IRE) | 337 | 1 | +4 |
| FAIRYHOUSE | 5-15 | Luska Lad (IRE) | 333 | 2 | |
| MUSSELBURGH | 2-20 | Lucayan Dancer | 338 | 1 | +25 |
| MUSSELBURGH | 2-20 | Keisha Kayleigh (IRE) | 313 | 2 | |
| MUSSELBURGH | 2-50 | Harlech Castle | 381 | 1 | +2 |
| MUSSELBURGH | 2-50 | Blue Tomato | 379 | 2 | |
| MUSSELBURGH | 3-20 | Striker Torres (IRE) | 332 | 1 | +20 |
| MUSSELBURGH | 3-20 | Olympic Dream | 312 | 2 | |
| MUSSELBURGH | 3-50 | Excusez Moi (USA) | 387 | 1 | +3 |
| MUSSELBURGH | 3-50 | Just Bond (IRE) | 384 | 2 | |
| MUSSELBURGH | 4-20 | Gordonsville | 372 | 1 | +3 |
| MUSSELBURGH | 4-20 | Pass The Port | 369 | 2 | |
| MUSSELBURGH | 4-50 | Dazzling Light (UAE) | 316 | 1 | +17 |
| MUSSELBURGH | 4-50 | Longboat Key | 299 | 2 | |
| MUSSELBURGH | 5-20 | Titus Andronicus (IRE) | 325 | 1 | +1 |
| MUSSELBURGH | 5-20 | Dispol Grand (IRE) | 324 | 2 | |
| PLUMPTON | 2-00 | Sam Lord | 452 | 1 | +175 |
| PLUMPTON | 2-00 | Mtoto's Prince | 277 | 2 | |
| PLUMPTON | 2-30 | Silver Dollars (FR) | 412 | 1 | +11 |
| PLUMPTON | 2-30 | Good Old Days (IRE) | 401 | 2 | |
| PLUMPTON | 3-00 | Quartz Du Montceau (FR) | 367 | 1 | +14 |
| PLUMPTON | 3-00 | Quelclasse (FR) | 353 | 2 | |
| PLUMPTON | 3-30 | Nesnaas (USA) | 418 | 1 | +9 |
| PLUMPTON | 3-30 | Laharna | 409 | 2 | |
| PLUMPTON | 4-00 | Blueland (IRE) | 346 | 1 | +2 |
| PLUMPTON | 4-00 | Royal Prodigy (USA) | 344 | 2 | |
| PLUMPTON | 4-30 | Push The Port (IRE) | 385 | 1 | +10 |
| PLUMPTON | 4-30 | Spanchil Hill | 375 | 2 | |
| PLUMPTON | 5-00 | High Life | 389 | 1 | +7 |
| PLUMPTON | 5-00 | Benayoun | 382 | 2 | |
| TOWCESTER | 2-10 | Russian Epic | 302 | 1 | +5 |
| TOWCESTER | 2-10 | Horseford Hill | 297 | 2 | |
| TOWCESTER | 2-40 | Super Lord (IRE) | 423 | 1 | +7 |
| TOWCESTER | 2-40 | Marked Man (IRE) | 416 | 2 | |
| TOWCESTER | 3-10 | Busker Royal | 499 | 1 | +20 |
| TOWCESTER | 3-10 | Pterodactyl (IRE) | 479 | 2 | |
| TOWCESTER | 3-40 | Twilight Eagle (IRE) | 449 | 1 | +11 |
| TOWCESTER | 3-40 | Oscar Jack (FR) | 438 | 2 | |
| TOWCESTER | 4-10 | Topflight Wildbird | 417 | 1 | +2 |
| TOWCESTER | 4-10 | Transvestite (IRE) | 415 | 2 | |
| TOWCESTER | 4-40 | Back Nine (IRE) | 446 | 1 | +4 |
| TOWCESTER | 4-40 | Rydal Park (IRE) | 442 | 2 | |
| TOWCESTER | 5-10 | Pipe Banner | 324 | 1 | +136 |
| TOWCESTER | 5-10 | Star King (IRE) | 188 | 2 |
0 comments:
Post a Comment