A great day yesterday and rounded off with a nice 7/1 place and a 6/1 winner with Compton Classic at Kempton last night.
More of the same on Thursday with excellent action at Newmarket and Cheltenham backed up by a couple of interesting races at Ripon and Wolverhampton in the evening. I think it looks a bit trappy though so I will be treading cautiously in my each-way shoes and keeping most of my powder dry for the weekend action.
Once again I will take a look at all the races at Newmarket. I've shortlisted the main 4 so far and cover some other races below..I'll take a look at Ripon and Wolverhampton a bit later if I get the time.
Back these each-way !
Chelt 245 TARATINO
Newm300 TAX FREE
Newm 3:35 GLASS HARMOMIUM
Newm 410 TAZEEZ
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Newmarket
1:50 Best backed of Harbinger (2.66), Errol Flynn (5.8) or Reportage (7) with one eye on Militarist (7) and Best Shot (23)
I like the Wood Ditton but it's been a while since it produced any real decent colts but what it can do is perhaps provide some ideas as to the form of a trainer and later in the season for 3yo and all-aged handicaps. It's no contest on trainer form at the moment, Barry Hills and John Gosden won 5 of the 8 races on Wednesday between them so that is where to start. Just like I stated in the maiden races on Wednesday it's worth paying attention to those in the first 3 in the betting and especially if there is support. Infiraad and Dark Mischief were both in the top-3 in the betting and both were clipped in the betting. So, with that in mind it's probably best to make a note of the likely top-3 in the betting, any other significant trainers entries and their past records in the race. I then make a note of their current Betfair odds and compare them with the odds in the morning. It's a slightly better method than guessing. Stoute has won this twice in the last 10 years but Noseda has 3 wins including Fanjura last year. So I have Harbinger (2.66) and Errol Flynn (5.8) as first choices shortly followed by Reportage (7). Then I have Militarist (7) and Best Shot (23) as the next best. My hunch is that Noseda has won this 3 times and that Errol Flynn at 5.8 looks the better value and I may decide between him and whichever of the Gosden runners are clipped. A lot of Stoute's tend to need their initial running and Harbinger is very short. Hard to tell what Gosden's no.1 is and he may not even know himself but I have had a bit on Reportage simply because of the Dettori factor. Best Shot doesn't appear to be one of Barry Hills better ones but you never can tell and he is red hot right now. A race to watch or for small stakes probably.
2:25 Best backed of Crown (3.25), Six Wives (3.9) and Mexican Milly (5.5)
Same drill here. The two in-form trainer's runners. Crown (3.25) for Hannon, Mexican Milly (5.5) for Barry Hills and throw in Six Wives (3.9) for Willie Haggas. Haggas has started the season well and I am a big fan of Cheveley Park runners running for top trainers so Six Wives is really interesting. Hannon has also started the season superbly and Crown is very respected given he already has a run under his belt. It's hard to split them but the market suggests it will be between the top-2 so the market moves may be significant.
3:00 TAX FREE - each way @ 7/1
Equiano is joint top-rated but very short at 3's despite the trainers superb start. The first Spanish-trained winner at Royal Ascot, he has given trouble entering the stalls the last few times and doesn't appear to be entirely straightforward.I am almost tempted to put him in as a lay such is the strength of feeling I have that he either won't handle the stalls, the trip, the undulations or all of the above and it's only out of respect for Barry Hills I probably won't. He may be better over the minimum trip rather than 6f as he has a lot of pace and preference is for Dandy Nicholls Tax Free. Despite being 7 he is fairly lightly raced and could be improving. He ran a good 4th in the Temple Stakes last season before going on to score in a listed race at Naas and then a GP3 at the Curragh from Benbaun. 13/2 looks worth an each-way bet. 3rd-rated Edge Closer is seriously respected from the Hannon yard and he goes well fresh but a bigger danger may come from Knot In Wood following on from his close 3rd in the Cammidge at Doncaster. That is generally a good trial for this race and considering he usually needs his first run of the season, that was a very good effort, especially as he met trouble in running. He may be worth a 2nd small e/w bet.
3:35 GLASS HARMONIUM - each way @ 11/2
The Craven has been pretty much dead as a Guineas trial for quite some time apart from Haafhd but here we are being asked to believe that Delegator is the real deal, has been catching pigeons on the gallops, only needs to turn up etc etc. Well, that may well prove to be the case, he could be a machine but I've seen plenty of these turned over and with Godolphin, Hills, Gosden, Stoute, Hannon and Noseda all having runners in this race, I find it difficult to bring myself to take evens about a Meehan runner (has a habit of being over-bullish at times) who was beaten 5th in the Dewhurst when he blatantly didn't find as much up the hill as the principals AND hung when meeting the rising ground AND is now racing over an extra furlong...cue egg on face ;-)
The form was boosted yesterday by Ouqba so it's probably good enough form. I have my doubts and if he is evens or shorter I will be laying him...probably. He is top-rated but only by .4 of a point from City Style who has arguably the better form with his 4th in the Breeders Cup to Donativum and he has been in sparkling form winning a couple in Dubai without being extended. However, the runner-up let the form down badly yesterday and I'm not convinced that Godolphin's policy of wintering in Dubai worked as well as it did 10 years ago, well in fact I know it doesn't.
Pure Poetry won what looked a poor Easter Stakes while there are stamina doubts about Barry Hills runner Alyarf and he didn't show the same level of form as Haafhd did as a juvenile before he won this race en-route to Guineas success.
My gut feel is telling me that Stoute's Glass Harmonium is the one today. Stoute does well with this type, has supplemented him for the classics in the last week so must clearly have been showing something at home...more of him in the following post.
4:10 TAZEEZ - each way @ 7/1
I think on all known form Twice Over should take this well but he is not a betting proposition at all. I may put up a lay at much shorter odds-on in running though just in case as some of Cecil's have been found wanting at the business end. However, he loves it here, won the Craven first time last season and was contesting Group races, while these generally have to improve. However, one that could improve is John Gosden's Cambridgeshire winner Tazeez. He will not mind the fast ground unlike his stablemate Virtual and yet at twice that ones odds probably represents a bit of each-way and forecast value with the favourite.
4:45 Balaagha (2.78), Resort (3.3), Christina Rossetti ( 7.6) and Spring Adventure (9.2)
Another maiden for the ladies and same rules as before, pick the top-3/4 in the market, listen for clues and watch the market.
5:20 Dialogue- each way @ 20/1+
Imposing is sure to be popular here. His form looks rock good and Stoute tends to prepare a good one for this race but the price looks short enough to me. Dialogue is interesting for Mark Johnston with Frankie Dettori booked. Trounced his field last time at Wolverhampton and if he can translate that to turf he could at least reward each-way support as Dettori will surely keep him prominant but not a race to get too carried away in probably.
Cheltenham
Have to keep this brief as I have some other things to take care of before racing on Thursday.
Encouraging to see a couple of Venetia Williams runners top-rated today. In the 2:10 Aachen @ 5 and Cheltenham winner Kayf Aramis @ 14 in the 3:55 race although Pennek @ 11 is a big danger there. Both are worth each way support.
TARATINO can score for Alan King in the 2:45 @ 8 and that could be worth decent each-way bet.
In the 3:20 race Argento Luna could take the beating @ 4.5 but Hora looks the better each-way price at possibly double-figure odds..
Have not had much chance to look at Ripon or Wolverhampton in depth so there 'may' be a 2nd post tomorrow for the evening meeting. At Ripon, Michael Jarvis does well with his raiders up north so keep an eye on Cheviot in the 2:35.
In the 3:10 at Ripon Halicarassus is rated the highest 'Sup' clear of the 2nd on the ratings on Thursday.
It's hard to know the effect of the draw, particularly in the last 2 races but high numbers are supposedly favoured over sprints on fast ground, which is a shame as our top-2/3 on the ratings are generally, almost all drawn low. Here is a list of the next best on the ratings drawn high. It will pay to reduce stakes in the first race at 4:55 and then use the lessons learned to back in the last of the day at 5:30.
Highest rated drawn high to back with one from the bottom please Carol ;-):
4:55 Kiwi Bay
5:30 Argentine
| Course | Time | Horse | RAT | RATR | Sup |
| CHELTENHAM | 2-10 | Aachen | 527 | 1 | +18 |
| CHELTENHAM | 2-10 | Tataniano (FR) | 509 | 2 | |
| CHELTENHAM | 2-45 | Tarotino (FR) | 518 | 1 | +11 |
| CHELTENHAM | 2-45 | Ordre De Bataille (FR) | 507 | 2 | |
| CHELTENHAM | 3-20 | Argento Luna | 543 | 1 | +1 |
| CHELTENHAM | 3-20 | Hora | 542 | 2 | |
| CHELTENHAM | 3-55 | Kayf Aramis | 528 | 1 | +1 |
| CHELTENHAM | 3-55 | Pennek (FR) | 527 | 2 | |
| NEWMARKET | 3-00 | Tax Free (IRE) | 468 | 1 | |
| NEWMARKET | 3-00 | Equiano (FR) | 468 | 1 | +22 |
| NEWMARKET | 3-35 | Delegator | 446 | 1 | +0 |
| NEWMARKET | 3-35 | City Style (USA) | 446 | 2 | |
| NEWMARKET | 4-10 | Twice Over | 485 | 1 | +24 |
| NEWMARKET | 4-10 | Virtual | 461 | 2 | |
| NEWMARKET | 5-20 | Dialogue | 386 | 1 | +3 |
| NEWMARKET | 5-20 | Zaaqya | 383 | 2 | |
| RIPON | 2-35 | Cheviot (USA) | 370 | 1 | +13 |
| RIPON | 2-35 | Lucky Numbers (IRE) | 357 | 2 | |
| RIPON | 3-10 | Halicarnassus (IRE) | 448 | 1 | +54 |
| RIPON | 3-10 | Slam | 394 | 2 | |
| RIPON | 3-45 | Firebet (IRE) | 377 | 1 | +2 |
| RIPON | 3-45 | Cook's Endeavour (USA) | 375 | 2 | |
| RIPON | 4-55 | Vhujon (IRE) | 382 | 1 | +3 |
| RIPON | 4-55 | Ingleby Arch (USA) | 379 | 2 | |
| RIPON | 5-30 | Colorus (IRE) | 346 | 1 | +7 |
| RIPON | 5-30 | Circuit Dancer (IRE) | 339 | 2 | |
| WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W) | 5-15 | Speak The Truth (IRE) | 316 | 1 | +1 |
| WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W) | 5-15 | La Capriosa | 315 | 2 | |
| WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W) | 6-15 | Distinctly Game | 380 | 1 | +8 |
| WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W) | 6-15 | Luscivious | 372 | 2 | |
| WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W) | 7-15 | Common Diva | 351 | 1 | +0 |
| WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W) | 7-15 | High Cross (IRE) | 351 | 2 | |
| WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W) | 7-45 | Justcallmehandsome | 368 | 1 | +0 |
| WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W) | 7-45 | Brouhaha | 368 | 2 |
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