Ok, first of all someone has asked if I can nominate clearly my best bet of the day each day so I'm going to try to do it in the title of the daily post. Well I am thinking of introducing a points-based staking plan shortly but until then you will have to make do with drawing your own conclusions. I find it difficult to be definite about 'best bets' when most of the racing is so average as it has been since after Aintree and the start of the flat is always a very dicey time. If I had to have just one bet today though it would probably be a decent-sized each-way on Carthalawn in the 4:00 at Fairyhouse but I'll rundown all the races I like the look of on Tuesday.
Fairy225 EBADIYAN - 2.2 Paddy Power
Very unlucky when running out and hitting the rail when in with a chance of winning at Cheltenham in the Triumph Hurdle and this 'should' be a walk in the park. Having said that, the ground will be plenty lively enough but the 6/5 odds-against the favourite will probably be worth taking with Paddy Power as he could go odds-on and they offer best-odds guaranteed.
Fairy255 CLAN TARA - 7 Betfair
This gutsy novice looks to be up against it conceding weight all round but no more so than Roberto Goldback who is half his odds. Clan Tara ran impressive Cheltenham winner Mikhael D'Haguenet to 3 lengths at Naas in January and won a Grade2 last time so I can't believe the price of 7 will last long on Betfair. I will be looking to have a lumpy each-way with a bookie if I can find one paying 4 or 5/1.
Fairy400 CARTHALAWN - 6.2 Betfair
Ran a superb 3rd in the Pierse hurdle off just a 6lb lower mark before going close in a Grade 2 Chase to Glenfinn Captain and then landing a Grade 2 chase from Schindlers Hunt. That form over fences was top-class given the latter's subsequent 3rd in the Ryannair and head defeat to Voy Por Ustedes in the Melling Chase. That makes his mark of 142 over fences look very lenient indeed and it's likelier he should be rated closer to 160. Either way, he is looking absolutely chucked in over hurdles off a mark of 124 with the jockey taking off a further 3lb (was on board in the Pierse) and he could be chucked in. It doesn't always work out that way, but he has to be a decent bet at 6.2 on Betfair even just based on his Pierse form. He must start shorter surely and I will be having a decent bet on this and backing on the place market on Betfair as there will be surely a non-runner reducing the field to less than 16 runners and losing out on the extra place if bet with traditional bookies, not that I expect that to be an issue really.
Yarm320 BILLY BEETROOT - 5.1 Betfair
Is only 'just' rated behind Lovely Thought here and the better value of the two. Lovely Thought clearly improved for the application of blinkers last backend but that win came on soft ground, she has not run for 168 days and the initial effect of the application of blinkers can wear off. Billy Beetroot on the other hand comes here fresh from a couple of decent efforts at Bath and Nottingham and actually has first time blinkers on today and that could make the difference. Any money for him would only increase confidence from this shrewd yard and Spencer is an eye-catching booking. 5.1 on Betfair and could shorten. Alternatively, I will be looking for 4/1+ with a traditional bookie for an each-way bet.
Yarm350 BOUVARDIA - 4.2 Betfair
Henry Cecil has started the season well with wins the last week for Borntobouggie and Warpedsenseofhumour so he clearly has not lost his knack of preparing one first time out and Bouvardia rates a possible decent each-way lump job here if close to the 5/1 quote on the Sporting Life site. He does well with his runners at Yarmouth and this won has already won over the course. Although her win came over 6f she shows plenty of early speed and it's possible this 5f trip will see her to even better effect.
Yarm450 BUDDHIST MONK - 7.8 Betfair
Purchased out of Sir Mark Prescott's yard by Ian Williams, ran a better race than it looked last time considering he had no room AND his saddle slipped so it was an encouraging effort to finish 6th first time out and he will strip fitter for that. He went close in a class2 handicap at Haydock last term, albeit over a longer trip than this but he represents decent each-way value. A Cumani hot shot got turned over yesterday and Bullet Man looks plenty short enough considering his win came on the a-weather and he has been off for 118 days and I am a lot more worried about the Michael Jarvis runner Dark Prospect who had a couple of narrow defeats here last term. He may be worth a small cover bet for the Buddhist Monk win stake.
Exet210 FREDDY'S STAR - 9.2 Betfair
You can't see it but Freddy's Star is a close 3rd on my ratings here. One of the reasons for putting him up is that I think Beverley Hill Billy is one to take on at the price rather than get blindly involved in backing the top-rated. I have him on my notes as "decidedly one-paced" so I think he needs to be stepped up in trip, he has been off the track for some time and his price owes more to the trainer than anything else. Freddy's Star is fit, and went very close over C&D last time and can make up for that near miss here at a decent each-way price.
Exet310 PRESENTING EXPRESS - 4.5 Betfair
Emma Lavelle is in fine form and this course winner ran a good 2nd last time, clear of the remainder. He has his ground today and has a touch more class than his rivals so should prove tough to beat.
Exet410 FIT TO DRIVE - 2.64 Betfair
I would have Fit To Drive as favourite over Jigsaw Dancer here. Ok Jigsaw Dancer drops in class but he showed nothing in the Grand Annual, pulled up the time before and arguably needs a softer surface to show his best. Fit To Drive on the other hand is in form after 3 near misses on Grade1 tracks, acts on fast ground and is in receipt of 7lb from the top-weight.
Mark300 WHISKEY MAGIC - 4.5 Betfair
C&D winner who was unlucky last time, being hampered by a loose horse and then just failing to stay on approaching the last hurdle. He has the highest superiority figure of horses running on Tuesday and looks the value shout.
| Course | Time | Horse | RAT | RATR | Sup |
| EXETER | 2-10 | Beverly Hill Billy | 423 | 1 | 13 |
| EXETER | 2-10 | Darn Hot | 410 | 2 | |
| EXETER | 2-40 | Vodka Brook (IRE) | 487 | 1 | 135 |
| EXETER | 2-40 | Gentle Ranger (IRE) | 352 | 2 | |
| EXETER | 3-10 | Presenting Express (IRE) | 495 | 1 | 27 |
| EXETER | 3-10 | Ibberton | 468 | 2 | |
| EXETER | 3-40 | Raslan | 505 | 1 | 15 |
| EXETER | 3-40 | Honour High | 490 | 2 | |
| EXETER | 4-10 | Fit To Drive | 498 | 1 | 42 |
| EXETER | 4-10 | Jigsaw Dancer (IRE) | 456 | 2 | |
| FAIRYHOUSE | 2-25 | Flag Of Honour (IRE) | 452 | 1 | 67 |
| FAIRYHOUSE | 2-25 | Ebadiyan (IRE) | 385 | 2 | |
| FAIRYHOUSE | 2-55 | Clan Tara (IRE) | 512 | 1 | 11 |
| FAIRYHOUSE | 2-55 | Quiscover Fontaine (FR) | 501 | 2 | |
| FAIRYHOUSE | 3-25 | Perce Rock | 562 | 1 | 12 |
| FAIRYHOUSE | 3-25 | Reisk Superman (IRE) | 550 | 2 | |
| FAIRYHOUSE | 4-00 | Carthalawn (IRE) | 592 | 1 | 18 |
| FAIRYHOUSE | 4-00 | Psycho (IRE) | 574 | 2 | |
| FAIRYHOUSE | 4-35 | Handfull Of Euros (IRE) | 536 | 1 | 6 |
| FAIRYHOUSE | 4-35 | Prudent Honour (IRE) | 530 | 2 | |
| FAIRYHOUSE | 5-05 | Natural Storm (IRE) | 470 | 1 | 1 |
| FAIRYHOUSE | 5-05 | The Penitent Man (IRE) | 469 | 2 | |
| MARKET RASEN | 2-00 | Industrial Star (IRE) | 429 | 1 | 14 |
| MARKET RASEN | 2-00 | Sassanias (FR) | 415 | 2 | |
| MARKET RASEN | 2-30 | Gloucester | 473 | 1 | 3 |
| MARKET RASEN | 2-30 | Pagano (IRE) | 470 | 2 | |
| MARKET RASEN | 3-00 | Whisky Magic (FR) | 464 | 1 | 138 |
| MARKET RASEN | 3-00 | Springfield Raki | 326 | 2 | |
| MARKET RASEN | 3-30 | The Dark Lord (IRE) | 499 | 1 | 4 |
| MARKET RASEN | 3-30 | Mizen Raven (IRE) | 495 | 2 | |
| MARKET RASEN | 4-00 | Wind Instrument (IRE) | 488 | 1 | 9 |
| MARKET RASEN | 4-00 | Calusa Caldera (IRE) | 479 | 2 | |
| YARMOUTH | 3-20 | Lovely Thought | 299 | 1 | 2 |
| YARMOUTH | 3-20 | Oisin's Boy | 297 | 2 | |
| YARMOUTH | 3-50 | Bouvardia | 360 | 1 | 4 |
| YARMOUTH | 3-50 | Peninsular War | 356 | 2 | |
| YARMOUTH | 4-20 | Kokkokila | 326 | 1 | 18 |
| YARMOUTH | 4-20 | Russian Invader (IRE) | 308 | 2 | |
| YARMOUTH | 4-50 | Buddhist Monk | 390 | 1 | 3 |
| YARMOUTH | 4-50 | Dark Prospect | 387 | 2 |
Easter Monday Review
A poor day with lots of near-misses. From 32 top-rated runners there were just 6 winners with Glengarra at 8/1 and Tampa Boy at 13/2 the pick of them. However, there were no fewer than 9 runners that placed including the shortlisted runners Rare Coincidence, Ballyvaden, Fantoche, and Stewarts House. Hopefully you will have done them each-way to limit any losses. I generally bet each way at 4/1+ as even if they place you almost recoup all the stake most of the time. I do expect longer losing runs with my method as I am not picking short-priced/odds-on favourites in general, but Monday was very frustrating indeed.
I was especially mystified by the 'ride' given to Garde Champetre in the Irish National. It was never put in the race but Nina Carberry did not appear to push it at any stage despite the fact the horse was jumping for fun, I didn't like that one bit and it was very sad to see the loss of two horses, notably Wichita Lineman who had been so brave and game at Cheltenham.
I'm now beginning to feel wind-down mode coming on for the jumps season with the Newmarket Craven meeting starting on Wednesday.
Laying System
One thing I noticed today is that if I had had the time to lay all 12 odds-on favourites on Monday then I would have collected just 4 times as 8 of them went on to win. You would think this would be disastrous but I worked out afterwards if I had managed to lay them all at close to their SP for 10 pounds a time then it would only have resulted in an 8 pounds loss due to the fact so many of them were very short priced winners. This is encouraging and I will have to look into this further as I believe there is a makings of a profitable laying system here for odds-on shots as today was an exceptional day for them. I am working on downloading the Betfair historical price data to determine how much on average the price shortens from it's odds before it goes in-play and how that relates to the SP.
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