Wednesday sees the 'proper' start of the flat season with the Newmarket Craven meeting. It's a time of the year to be careful though with lots of rumours about horses catching pigeons on the gallops, plenty of horses not being 100% ready for their debut run, guessing whether horses will maintain their form from the all-weather when switched to turf, or even improve on what they have shown on artificial surfaces.
I still like to keep an eye on maidens at this time of year, even if not from a betting point of view as you can spot decent 3yo's that will make up into classic contenders or potentially decent handicappers later in the year. I've taken a look at every race at Newmarket but only like 3 races for bets out of the 8 taking place there plus a couple at Cheltenham and one tonight at Kempton.
Newm300 NEHAAM - 6 Betfair (POPMURPHY - 19 Betfair)
Chelt320 DAVES DREAM - 5/1 Bet365
Newm335 PENNY'S GIFT - 6/1 Paddy Power
Chelt430 MY FRIEND SANDY - 14 Betfair- (BENCH WARRANT 16 Betfair)
Newm445 REDWOOD - 3.9 Betfair
Kemp720 SIMPLIFICATION - 8.2 Betfair
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Newm150 Horsley Warrior
Ones to watch here are Henry Cecil's Native Ruler, he has started the season well and this half bruv to Sixties Icon has already caught the eye on the Limekilns and Al Bahathri gallops. One that could go well at a price though is Horsley Warrior who showed a bit of ability in a maiden at Nottingham and who has been entered in the Dante and Derby. He is clearly held in high regard and will be an each-way price for a small bet but generally speaking this is a race to watch closely.
Newm225 Monsier Chevalier
This one put up a very powerful performance last time, Hannon is bang in form and he can make the most of the weight he receives from Hearts Of Fire who was also impressive last time, albeit a little green. Not a race for getting heavily involved in though and if Monsieur goes odds-on could be worth a lay as Soccer cannot be completely ruled out either.
Newm300 NEHAAM - 6 Betfair
POPMURPHY - 19 Betfair
A fantastic looking race and one for the video/dvd recorder if not necessarily for betting but the thing I feel to do is pick a couple of big prices ones for small stakes. Starting with the favourite, Liberation was a progressive sort for Mark Johnston last term, culminating in a 4th to Donativum and Crowded House in the Timeform Million at Newmarket last backed. Liberation was subsequently purchased by Godolphin and made a decent debut for his new yard, despite being reported to need the run, when 2nd at Nad Al Sheba. Not many ride Newmarket better than Dettori and with this one already having had a prep, the top-rated should go well here with the step up in trip likely to suit but as he is SO short in the betting that he can't be backed.
Monitor Closely was a couple of lengths behind Liberation in the Timeform Million and needs to find something. I also think the step up in trip is less likely to suit him, being by Oasis Dream out of a Pivotal mare. A 'danger' according to the ratings could be in the in-form Richard Hannon's Weald Park but on the balance of his form he doesn't look one of the stables leading lights and he has also something to find with Liberation. A bigger danger to the favourite could come from a less-exposed type who may not show up on the ratings due to the unexposed nature of so many of these runners.
The 5 that look the type on breeding are Rockhampton, Popmurphy, Classically, Sumbe, Nehaam and Pergamon.
Rockhampton is clearly well respected from the O'Brien yard but it's hard to equate the Irish form although if they have the run of form they had last year then all their runners warrant utmost respect. This one has been backed for the Derby but I am sure he won't be the first O'Brien runner that is over the next few months and his price also doesn't look tempting enough. I always find it funny when Spotlight or someone states a runner is respected because O'Brien has him well entered up. It would not surprise me if he entered the stable hack for the Derby !
Derby-entry Popmurphy scored in some style in his maiden at Doncaster and was galloping well past the line. It was very impressive for his first ever run on a racecourse. He can only improve for that and at least he has proven he has trained on. It was a very taking performance to my untrained eye and he should not be underestimated because his connections are less fashionable. He is the first of my each-way bets.
Classically is related to Speciosa and ran really well last time considering that most of Charlton's tend to need an outing. He will improve markedly for that run and his fitness is assured but he holds no big entries.
Sumbe may not look a likely winner but he ran a fair 6th in Delegator's maiden at Newmarket with Crowded House a few lengths behind and no less than 8 subsequent winners have come from that maiden so it was clearly a hot one and Tregoning can prep one first time but this is a big ask as he has not even won a maiden.
John Gosden is bang in form and clearly his Nehaam is well thought of as he was mentioned as a contender for the Royal Lodge and Racing Post trophy last term. He won readily over 7f at Newmarket at the tail-end of the season and the Nayef colt like all the others is well entered and exceptionally well bred.. Given Gosden's record at Newmarket this one has to figure and I think he will be challenging Coolmore and Godolphin through the year as I think he is reaching his prime as a trainer. Having said that, this is a very tough race but we are fortunate in that we should be able to get a decent each-way price about him.
Pergamon is interesting. Gosden showed with Mafaaz when he sticks blinkers on for the first time it's not necessarily because they are ungenuine, sometime he does it just to focus their mind on the job even more. An even more unfortunate method he uses is to 'have their knackers off' and he did this to effect last season with Donativum and Pergamon has had the same cruel cut. So to put it crudely, with blinkers and no balls his mind will be 100% focused on the race and his odds are likely to be generous.
I've spent way too much time on this race but I like to have a feel for the main contenders as it helps focus the analysis afterwards and helps when trying to spot promising runs mid-race. I think it will rest between Godolphin and Coolmore again but won't be surprised to see one or more surprise them both, hopefully one of the two I have mentioned.
Newm335 PENNY'S GIFT - 6/1 Paddy Power
Although Art Connoisseur is top-rated and clocked one of the best speed figures last season when winning the Coventry stakes last season there are doubts. I'm not convinced he is the type to train on, he cracked a cannon-bone last season, he is unproven stepped up to this trip and he has Spencer on board and it's hard to know whether we will see champ or Frank nowadays. With Penny's Gift you are assured of the stable being in cracking form with Ryan Moore in the plate, she is a course & distance winner, receives weight pretty much all round and Hannon has won this race twice in recent years. She is thought to be Guineas class, maybe Irish though not English but she looks the value call here with 6/1 Paddy Power a cracking each-way bet with their best-odds guaranteed offer.
Newm410 Kaabari e/w
Fantasia should take this, she looks well up to 1000 Guineas class but you never know, stranger things have happened. She is reported to be heading for the French Guineas as Cumani believes she will be playing for 2nd behind Rainbow View. She reminds me a bit of the stables Gossamer although unlike her she found one too good in the Fillies Mile. Summer Fete should give her a race of it but that one may prefer softer ground being by Pivotal. Instead of taking odds-on it may be best to back her for the 1000 Guineas before this race as her odds are likely to contract. Kaabari is well worth an each-way bet in this. She is from the family that produced the likes of Luso, Needle Gun and Warrsan and could be one for a middle-distance race later in the season. Amazingly, her dam Cloud Castle won the Nell Gwynn at 33/1 and while the win may be beyond her, Brittain's horses are quite often overpriced for their races so she may be worth a small e/w bet.
Newm445 REDWOOD - 3.9 Betfair
A lot of vibes about this one from the Hills yard and he was my first Derby ante-post bet at 65 on Betfair, I advise a small interest as I think his odds will shorten if he wins this well. Barry Hills not only has an excellent record at Newmarket but is one of the best in the biz at producing one ready and fit first time out and this High Chaparral colt out of a Woodman mare is exceptionally well bred and could be his Derby hope. I generally make it a rough rule to pay particularly close attention to an Sheik Mo or Abdullah-owned horse when it is trained by one of the top-boys. I will probably lay the Cecil favourite if it's odds-on at about 20% shorter than it's SP in-running...more of that when I have some time regarding a possible new laying strategy of odds-on shots.
Newm 520 Formula or Invisible Man ?
I tend not to bet much in maidens, preferring to watch unless I hear or see something of interest. One of my favourite strategies is to concentrate on the top-3 in the market and then watch which one shortens up the most. Generally speaking, that is quite relevant so 'll keep an eye on the market and keep my ear to the ground from the few contacts I have that know about maidens/juvenile races to see if there is a word for anything.
Newm555 Definightly e/w
Finally, a handicap to get stuck into ;-) I don't have a strong opinion on this race. Green Beret won well last time but so too did Servoca while Dark Mischief beat Green Beret last season. Definightly missed the break last time in France and if you ignore that run his form looks good enough so he will do for me for a small each-way bet but a race to tread cautiously in.
Phew, glad that is over. Now onto the rest of the day's action, some good stuff at Cheltenham and Fairyhouse but not so good at Beverley or Kempton in the evening.
Starting at Cheltenham and again I may lay Torpichen if he is odds-on in the 2:10. He was poor at Cheltenham and may not like the track, the stable is not firing on all cylinders at the moment and he meets a potentially useful opponent in Tasheba whose connections are in form.
Chelt320 DAVES DREAM - 5/1 Bet365
Mr Geraghty I felt was a bit too easy on Dave's Dream at Cheltenham costing me an each-way wager but I intend to get it back today;-) He stayed on to great effect up the hill that day and it was a great effort nonetheless coming just a week after his Imperial Cup win. He has had the last month off and this extra 1/2 mile should be ideal. 5/1 with Bet365 best odds guaranteed should be snapped up for a lumpy each-way bet as I can't have him out the frame this time with a stronger chance of the win than at Cheltenham in a less competitive race now that he has had a rest.
Chelt430 MY FRIEND SANDY
BENCH WARRANT
Both these runners ran solid races last time and should go well for each-way bets. Jim Old had a winner on Monday and has struggled for a while now but My Friend Sandy ran his best race for a while when a staying on 2nd. Would have finished closer but for a mistake 2 out but is worth backing with signs the stable may have a little spurt of decent form ahead. Bench Warrant is marvelously consistent and he can give the weight away here. I always like a horse that can make a lot of running and then fight back when headed, it shows a gameness quality which is what you need in these races.
Fairyhouse looks too trappy although Carrigeen Kalmia in the 3:00 could win the Mares race she won last year while Panzer Chief in the 4:05, Jaamid in the 4:35 and Mustangsallyrally in the 5:10 are the best of the rest on a very trappy card.
Beverley and the introduction of the draw, or should I say pace. This from the ATR draw guide -:
"The 5f trip at Beverley has long been regarded as arguably the strongest draw bias C&D in the country. High draws have enjoyed a significant advantage for many years. If we look at the result of 10 runner or more handicaps since 2005 we get the following draw split:
Top "third" of the draw: 51.7% (wins), 47.7% (placed)
Middle "third" of the draw: 34.5% (wins), 35.1% (placed)
Bottom "third" of the draw: 13.8% (wins), 17.2% (placed)"
So over 1/2 the winners come from the top-3rd in the draw and just less than half place.
Beve310 Manzila - Fol Hollow
2nd-rated Fyodor is drawn low so I will add in 3rd-rated Fol Hollow who has a particularly good posi in stall 15 and likes to race prominantly. French listed-winner Manzila is also 'just' in the top-3rd of the draw in stall 12 and is another with a chance although that one may find the ground a bit lively but it's not the best race in the world.
Beve345 New Beginning
Dropped to a mark almost 20lb lower than when last successful but ran best race in ages back on turf last time. Robert Winston is in for a good season and although a high'ish draw over a mile isn't as advantageous as it is over shorter distances it still can't hurt.
Beve455 Labisa
Roger Charlton doesn't have a lot of runners at Beverley and this one looks a likely winner.
Kemp720 SIMPLIFICATION 8.2 Betfair
I think it's significant that Ryan Moore has chosen Simplification over Brooksby and it's also significant if Kaabari runs a big race in the Nell Gwynn as he finished 1/4 length behind that rival last time. Could be well in on that run and with a fitness advantage over a few rivals rates an each-way bet.
At Kempton, it can also pay to have a high draw so Compton Classic is interesting in the 7:50
| Course | Time | Horse | RAT | RATR | Sup |
| BEVERLEY | 3-10 | Manzila (FR) | 419 | 1 | +3 |
| BEVERLEY | 3-10 | Fyodor (IRE) | 416 | 2 | |
| BEVERLEY | 3-45 | New Beginning (IRE) | 354 | 1 | +11 |
| BEVERLEY | 3-45 | Inside Story (IRE) | 343 | 2 | |
| BEVERLEY | 4-20 | Dubai Crest | 355 | 1 | +4 |
| BEVERLEY | 4-20 | Amethyst Dawn (IRE) | 351 | 2 | |
| BEVERLEY | 4-55 | Labisa (IRE) | 322 | 1 | +12 |
| BEVERLEY | 4-55 | Dancing Wave | 310 | 2 | |
| BEVERLEY | 5-30 | Woteva | 325 | 1 | +9 |
| BEVERLEY | 5-30 | Dispol Diva | 316 | 2 | |
| CHELTENHAM | 2-10 | Torphichen | 520 | 1 | +49 |
| CHELTENHAM | 2-10 | Rory Boy (USA) | 471 | 2 | |
| CHELTENHAM | 2-45 | Boychuk (IRE) | 537 | 1 | +8 |
| CHELTENHAM | 2-45 | Le Duc (FR) | 529 | 2 | |
| CHELTENHAM | 3-20 | The Polomoche (IRE) | 555 | 1 | +14 |
| CHELTENHAM | 3-20 | Dave's Dream (IRE) | 541 | 2 | |
| CHELTENHAM | 3-55 | Private Be | 576 | 1 | +6 |
| CHELTENHAM | 3-55 | Oslot (FR) | 570 | 2 | |
| CHELTENHAM | 4-30 | My Friend Sandy | 471 | 1 | +5 |
| CHELTENHAM | 4-30 | Bench Warrent (IRE) | 466 | 2 | |
| CHELTENHAM | 5-05 | Lodge Lane (IRE) | 548 | 1 | +8 |
| CHELTENHAM | 5-05 | Buck The Legend (IRE) | 540 | 2 | |
| FAIRYHOUSE | 3-00 | Carrigeen Kalmia (IRE) | 506 | 1 | +46 |
| FAIRYHOUSE | 3-00 | Shesadoll (IRE) | 460 | 2 | |
| FAIRYHOUSE | 4-05 | Panzer Chief (FR) | 456 | 1 | +16 |
| FAIRYHOUSE | 4-05 | Ross River | 440 | 2 | |
| FAIRYHOUSE | 4-35 | Jaamid | 454 | 1 | +94 |
| FAIRYHOUSE | 4-35 | Shan't Complain (IRE) | 360 | 2 | |
| FAIRYHOUSE | 5-10 | Mustangsallyrally (IRE) | 474 | 1 | +13 |
| FAIRYHOUSE | 5-10 | Ted Gunther (IRE) | 461 | 2 | |
| KEMPTON (A.W) | 7-20 | Simplification | 351 | 1 | +2 |
| KEMPTON (A.W) | 7-20 | Herschel (IRE) | 349 | 2 | |
| KEMPTON (A.W) | 7-50 | Hollow Jo | 329 | 1 | +2 |
| KEMPTON (A.W) | 7-50 | Compton Classic | 327 | 2 | |
| KEMPTON (A.W) | 8-50 | Potentiale (IRE) | 347 | 1 | +4 |
| KEMPTON (A.W) | 8-50 | Hucking Hero (IRE) | 343 | 2 | |
| KEMPTON (A.W) | 9-20 | Woodcote Place | 389 | 1 | +5 |
| KEMPTON (A.W) | 9-20 | Princely Hero (IRE) | 384 | 2 | |
| NEWMARKET | 2-25 | Hearts Of Fire | 223 | 1 | +5 |
| NEWMARKET | 2-25 | Monsieur Chevalier (IRE) | 218 | 2 | |
| NEWMARKET | 3-00 | Liberation (IRE) | 427 | 1 | +23 |
| NEWMARKET | 3-00 | Weald Park (USA) | 404 | 2 | |
| NEWMARKET | 3-35 | Art Connoisseur (IRE) | 460 | 1 | +3 |
| NEWMARKET | 3-35 | Penny's Gift | 457 | 2 | |
| NEWMARKET | 4-10 | Fantasia | 444 | 1 | +34 |
| NEWMARKET | 4-10 | Summer Fete (IRE) | 410 | 2 | |
| NEWMARKET | 4-45 | Drumbeat (IRE) | 436 | 1 | +0 |
| NEWMARKET | 4-45 | On Our Way | 436 | 2 | |
| NEWMARKET | 5-55 | Definightly | 400 | 1 | +2 |
| NEWMARKET | 5-55 | Aldermoor (USA) | 398 | 2 |
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